Heading into the NFL season, nobody thought the Houston Texans would be playing meaningful football in mid-January. They were 3-13-1 last season and had one of the worst rosters in football. They hired a new head coach in DeMeco Ryans and drafted QB C.J. Stroud second overall in the 2023 NFL Draft.
It was a complete reboot and so Houston entered the year with 200-1 Super Bowl odds, tied with the Arizona Cardinals for the worst in the entire NFL. Those would be the longest preseason title odds by any team to reach a conference championship game on record, surpassing the 1999 Rams (150-1) and 2021 Bengals (150-1). That data from Stathead dates back to the last 45 seasons.
By now you've probably heard the 1999 Rams were coming off a 4-12 season and QB Trent Green suffered a season-ending injury in the preseason. Kurt Warner, a former Arena Football League and NFL Europe QB, took over and went on to author one of the greatest underdog stories in NFL history. He won NFL MVP and Super Bowl MVP in 1999 and was the catalyst for the "Greatest Show on Turf."
Expectations were also low for the 2021 Bengals, coming off a 4-11-1 season where Joe Burrow's rookie year was cut short by an ACL tear. Cincinnati drafted Burrow's LSU teammate, Ja'Marr Chase, in 2021 and they formed one of the most explosive duos in the league. Cincinnati would end up losing in the Super Bowl that year to the Rams.
This Houston team can follow in the footsteps of those 2021 Bengals. Check out the similarities:
- Cinderellas: The Bengals had 150-1 preseason title odds. The Texans had 200-1 preseason title odds.
- Both had 10-7 records in the regular season and had the No. 4 seed in the AFC.
- Both had to beat the top seed in the divisional round.
- Head coach under 40: Zac Taylor, DeMeco Ryans
- Young superstar QB: Joe Burrow (No. 1 pick), C.J. Stroud (No. 2 pick)
- Young star WR: Ja'Marr Chase, Nico Collins
You can't script it much better than that, but Houston has its work cut out for it to beat the Ravens on Saturday. If they do, they'll also continue an incredible run of Cinderella teams in sports in the last year or so.
Almost every major sports championship is being crashed by a Cinderella lately.
- In 2023, we witnessed an All-Wild Card World Series between the Rangers and Diamondbacks, who combined for the fewest regular-season wins in a fall classic.
- The Florida Panthers and Miami Heat made the 2023 Stanley Cup Final and 2023 NBA Finals, respectively, as eight seeds.
- LSU just matched the worst seed (3) to win a women's national basketball title.
- The 2023 men's Final Four (featuring UConn, San Diego State, Florida Atlantic, Miami) was the first without a top-three seed.
- Super Bowl LVI between the Bengals and Rams was also the first without a top-three seed.
- The last NBA (Nuggets), NHL (Golden Knights) and MLB (Rangers) champions all just won their first title, as the Texans can do.
The stage is definitely set for the Texans; now they just have to go out and do it!
