How unique is Sunday's matchup of quarterback Jayden Daniels' 4-1 Washington Commanders at quarterback Lamar Jackson's 3-2 Baltimore Ravens?
It's downright historic. Daniels (60.0 rushing yards per game) versus Jackson (72.6 rushing yards per game) is the only matchup since at least 1950 between two quarterbacks entering a game averaging 60 or more rushing yards per game, per CBS Sports Research. This is a game straight out of the 1970's with Commanders (178.4 rushing yards per game) versus Ravens (211.2 rushing yards per game) in Week 6 standing as the most combined rushing yards per game (389.6), minimum five games played, since a 1975 matchup involving Pro Football Hall of Famer O.J. Simpson's Buffalo Bills and Mercury Morris' Miami Dolphins.
The Ravens are the first team with over 1,000 rushing yards (1,056) through five games since the 2006 Atlanta Falcons (1,160) led by quarterback Michael Vick. The Commanders are the first team with at least 200 rushing yards in three of the first five games since the same 2006 Falcons.
Which team has the edge in what's poised to be a physical marvel of football game this week? Let's take a deeper dive together to figure it out.
Commanders offense vs. Ravens defense
Daniels, the 2024 NFL Draft's second overall pick out of LSU, is the only quarterback since the 1970 AFL/NFL merger with a completion percentage of at least 75% (77.1%), 1,000 or more passing yards (1,135) and 300 rushing yards (300) in a five-game span. In fact, Daniels' start to his NFL career is eerily similar to Jackson's, a two-time NFL MVP (2019 and 2023).
However, Daniel's start is slightly more prolific because he is the only player in NFL history with at least 1,000 passing yards and 250 rushing yards in his first five career games. That's also while having the second-highest completion percentage (77.1%) in a team's first five games of a season, trailing only New Orleans Saints legend Drew Brees' 77.9% rate during the 2018 season.
First five career starts
| 2018 Jackson | 2024 Daniels | |
|---|---|---|
W-L | 4-1 | 4-1 |
Comp Pct | 59% | 77% |
Pass Yards | 731 | 1,135 |
Pass TD | 4 | 4 |
Rushing Yards | 427 | 300 |
Washington enters Week 6 as the league's top scoring offense in the entire league thus far in 2024, averaging 31.0 points per game, with the most rushing touchdowns (13) through the first five games of season since the 1975 Miami Dolphins (13). That success is buoyed by the highest drive score rate (69%) of any team through five games in the 21st Century, excluding kneel downs.
However, the heart of that success -- the ground game led by by running back Brian Robinson (325 rushing yards, 14th in the NFL) and Daniels (300 rushing yards, 16th in the NFL) -- will be met by the Ravens No .1 rushing defense that is allowing a miniscule 60.4 rushing yards per game.
Daniels and offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury have a simple answer for Baltimore, should their rushing offense be turned ineffective: attack the Ravens secondary. Only the 1-4 Jacksonville Jaguars (287.8 passing yards allowed per game) have a worse pass defense than the Ravens 31st-ranked unit (280.2 passing yards per game allowed). For additional context, the Ravens have faced Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Joe Burrow and Dak Prescott this season.
Still, that's a massive issue against Washington. Daniels has the third-most completions of 25 or more yards in the NFL (10) while the Ravens have allowed the most 25+ yard completions (15). Washington's passing offense has also taken the training wheels off of Daniels the last three weeks. He is now averaging the seventh-longest pass distance in the NFL since Week 3 (8.8 yards) after averaging the shortest pass difference in Weeks 1-2 (4.7). Much of that production has been directed at Pro Bowl receiver Terry McLaurin, whose 264 receiving yards (sixth in the NFL since Week 3) and two receiving touchdowns (tied for sixth in the NFL since Week 3) are both top 10 in the league in that span. McLaurin has run a vertical route on 41.1% of his routes in 2024, his highest vertical route rate since his rookie year in 2019 (42.7%). He has maximized his deep ball opportunities, corralling four of his 12 targets for 158 yards on vertical routes (10th-most yards on vertical routes in the NFL this season) and two receiving touchdowns.
Oh, and by the way, Kingsbury's and Daniels' NFL-leading scoring offense keeps defenses gasping for air as they have ran an NFL-most 158 no-huddle plays this season. No other team has run 100 no-huddle plays this season, with Caleb Williams' Chicago Bears ranking as the second-most with 90 such plays. The Ravens leader in both sacks (6.0) and quarterback pressures (17) this season is 33-year-old Kyle Van Noy. He might not be as effective as he has been through the first five weeks of the season while attempting to deal with Washington's uptempo offense in Week 6.
Edge: Commanders
Ravens offense vs. Commanders defense
Baltimore has the NFL's best rushing offense, 211.2 rushing yards per game, for an obvious reason: Jackson and the NFL's leading rusher, Derrick "King" Henry. Their 935 combined rushing yards are the most by a quarterback-running back duo through five games in NFL history, per CBS Sports Research. The duo is on pace for an NFL duo record 3,179 rushing yards, which would shatter the current single season record of 2,442 set by Rams running backs Eric Dickerson (NFL-leading 1,808) and Dwayne Crutchfield (578) in 1983. Jackson leads all quarterbacks in rushing yards this season while Henry leads the entire NFL. If they maintain that this season, the 2024 Ravens will become the first team since the 1970 AFL/NFL merger to have the leading quarterback rusher and the leading running back rusher in the same season.
This duo could break free for plenty of game-breaking plays on Sunday. The Commanders have allowed an NFL-high 23 explosive runs (runs of 10 or more yards) on 110 total carries against them: that's a 20.9% explosive run rate, the worst by an defense in the NFL this season, per NFL Pro Insights.
As for their passing game, no quarterback has a better touchdown-to-interception ratio than Jackson -- seven passing touchdowns to zero interceptions -- during the Ravens' three-game winning streak.
Lamar Jackson since Week 3
| NFL QB Rank | ||
|---|---|---|
Pass Yards/Attempt | 9.1 | 3rd |
Pass TD-INT | 7-0 | 1st |
Passer Rating | 128.0 | 2nd |
Rush YPG | 65.3 | 2nd |
| Expected Points Added/Play | 0.44 | 3rd |
* The Ravens are on a three-game winning streak after an 0-2 start
That's bad news for a struggling Commanders secondary that has surrendered 11 passing touchdowns, tied for the most in the NFL with the 1-4 Carolina Panthers, 11 Pass TD. Washington is also one of only three teams who have yet to snag an interception along with the 1-3 Tennessee Titans and the 1-4 Jacksonville Jaguars. That's brutal.
Their 11 passing touchdowns allowed without an interception is the second-most passing touchdowns given up without a pick in NFL history, trailing only the 2002 Buffalo Bills, a unit that allowed 12 touchdowns without an interception in their first five games. That Bills team finished the season 8-8 and in last place in the AFC East. Not great company to keep.
Edge: Ravens
Verdict: Ravens thanks to King Henry
It's one thing to attempt to slow down a dynamic quarterback in Jackson, the reigning NFL MVP. Most NFC teams struggle with Jackson: his 21-1 career record against NFC teams is the best interconference record among quarterbacks since the 1970 AFL/NFL merger, minimum 15 interconference games started. The reason why is because NFC squads simply don't face a quarterback as dynamic as him on a regular basis. The Commanders are one of the few teams who can mimic Jackson in practice with Daniels.
However, stopping both Jackson and Henry is a like Whac-A-Mole: once you slow down one, the other will blow by you. Just look at what happened in the Ravens' 41-38 overtime win at the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 5. The first play after Cincy missed a game-winning 53-yard field goal attempt, Henry erupted for a 51-yard run down to the Bengals' six the very next play. Justin Tucker drilled a 24-yard field goal the very next play, game over. Expect another frenetic finish with King Henry once again proving to be the difference.
