Welcome back to the playoffs, Cleveland! For the first time since 2002, the Browns are in the postseason and will face a familiar foe when they roll into Heinz Field to take on the Steelers for the final game of Super Wild-Card Weekend. As fate would have it, the last two playoff games that Cleveland was in (2002 and 1994) were against Pittsburgh and they came out on the losing end both times. Baker Mayfield and company will look to reverse that on Sunday and advance the Browns to the divisional round. They'll be doing that, however, without head coach Kevin Stefanski, who'll be sidelined for this matchup due to COVID-19. As for the Steelers, they look to be at full strength after resting most of their key starters against Cleveland in Week 17.
In this space, we're going to cover all the different betting angles that this game has to offer. On top of the spread and total, we'll give you a few of our favorite player props along with a look at how the lines have moved throughout the week, which will give us a solid view of how the public sees this matchup shaking out.
All NFL odds via William Hill Sportsbook.
How to watch
Date: Sunday, Jan. 10 | Time: 8:15 p.m. ET
Location: Heinz Field (Pittsburgh, PA)
TV: NBC | Stream: fuboTV (try for free)
Follow: CBS Sports App
Browns (11-5) at Steelers (12-4)
This spread opened at Steelers -3.5 and predictably went up with the news that COVID-19 was still impacting the Browns organization and would sideline head coach Kevin Stefanski for the contest. Now, that advantage as ballooned up to Steelers -6 heading into the weekend.
On top of not having their head coach, the Browns seem to consistently struggle against Pittsburgh. In Week 6, the Steelers were able to blow Cleveland out, 38-7, in a game that saw Baker Mayfield benched in the third quarter. Even as Mike Tomlin benched a majority of his starters in Week 17, the Browns had trouble with the Steelers' B Team led by Mason Rudolph and narrowly escaped with the 24-22 victory. In his career, Ben Roethlisberger has eaten the Browns for lunch at home, owning a 12-0 SU (8-4 ATS) record. Dating back to 2004, the Steelers have won 17 straight home games against the Browns. Over that stretch, they've gone 11-6 ATS.
Projected score: Steelers 27, Browns 17
Over/Under
After opening at 47, this total did take a quick dive down to 46.5, which could have been thanks to the initial news surrounding Stefanski not being able to coach in this matchup. However, the number has since gone back up a full point and stands at 47.5 on Friday night. The Under is 14-17-1 between these two teams this year, but they totaled 45 and 46 points respectively over their two regular-season matchups. Both of those games would have gone Under at this current total. Cleveland finished the season with a -11 point differential and have shown the ability to slow their games down with a strong running game, which could help keep this game Under.
Projected total: 44
Player props
Baker Mayfield total passing yards: Under 239.5 yards (-115). Mayfield has yet to throw for 200 or more yards against the Steelers secondary in five starts vs. them in his career. Last week he came in with just 196 yards through the air and while he may get over the 200-yard threshold on Sunday night, the safe pay is under on this prop.
Nick Chubb total rushing yards: Over 66.5 (-115). The Browns back was a force last week, totaling 108 yards on the ground on just 14 carries. He'll likely be leaned on heavily in this game once again and the Steelers did allow an average of 111.4 rushing yards per game this season.
First touchdown scorer: Chase Claypool (+900). Claypool was able to find pay dirt in Week 15, snapping a five-game scoreless streak. According to CBS Sports research analyst Stephen Oh's projections, Claypool holds great value as the first touchdown scorer during this Super Wild-Card Weekend matchup as his simulations have the receiver at +790 to score first.
