And then there were two. After a thrilling championship round this past weekend, the NFL playoff field has been whittled down to only two teams, the Rams and the Patriots, who will meet two Sundays from now in Atlanta for Super Bowl LIII. But it's never too early to begin peering ahead to next season. 

This time a year ago, as the Patriots and Eagles prepared to do battle in what would become one of the best Super Bowls in recent history, the Rams were licking their wounds after a surprising one-and-done that ended an even more surprising playoff appearance that established Sean McVay as one of the league's best coaches, Jared Goff as not a bust, Todd Gurley as maybe the league's best running back, and the Rams as legitimate contenders in the wars to come. One year later, the Rams found a way to get over the hump, holding off the Cowboys in the Divisional Round before sneaking past the Saints in the conference championship game (with some help from the officials along the way). Now, the Patriots await them.

This shouldn't come as a surprise. There were a ton of surprising playoff teams in 2018 -- like the Bears -- but the Rams weren't one of them. It was fairly easy to project the Rams finding a way to take the next step. This time a year ago, we ranked the 10 teams that had come up short in January by their chances of making it to Super Bowl LIII. We put the Rams in second.

Of course, we were also silly enough to rank the Jaguars fourth and the Chiefs, who lost to the Patriots in overtime on Sunday, all the way back in eighth place. So it wasn't all good. In our defense, nobody knew a year ago that Patrick Mahomes would go on to become the second quarterback in NFL history to throw for 5,000 yards and 50 touchdowns in a single season. 

Making predictions like this isn't easy, but we're going to make them anyway. Below, you'll find the 10 teams that lost in this year's playoffs ranked by their chances of winning Super Bowl LIV in 2020.  

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It's not an easy list to put together. 

For one, it's not entirely difficult to piece together a Super Bowl case for all 10 teams on this list. They're all coming off great seasons and most of their future outlooks are remarkably bright. But as we all know, the NFL is a fickle business. The playoff field changes every year. This time a year ago, the Jaguars and Vikings looked like future Super Bowl teams. Both missed the playoffs. Two, so much will change about these teams before next season begins. This time a year ago, Alex Smith was still the Chiefs' starting quarterback. Finally, just because a team is ranked eighth or ninth or seventh or sixth doesn't make them a bad team. All 10 teams below are good teams. We're not calling any of the teams below bad.

But some of them have to fall to the back end of the list. It's just the way lists work.

10. Dallas Cowboys

When the Cowboys won the NFC East in 2016 with a 13-3 record, the future appeared to be theirs for the taking. We all know what happened next: The offensive line wasn't the same impenetrable force it was, Dak Prescott regressed, Ezekiel Elliott missed six games due to a suspension, and the Cowboys went 9-7, missing the playoffs. They rebounded this past season with 10 wins, seven of which came in the final eight weeks of the season, sparked largely by the trade for Amari Cooper. Elliott led the league in rushing, Prescott looked more like he did in 2016, and the defense emerged as one of the league's best units. 

But a regression could be coming. For one, the Cowboys only outscored their opposition by 15 points over the course of the season. A year ago, they went plus-22 in point differential. The Cowboys also ranked only 21st in DVOA, one spot ahead of the Jaguars and one spot behind the Titans. Point differential and DVOA are often good predictors of future success, and the Cowboys ranked poorly in both categories. 

Making the playoffs also allowed them to keep Jason Garrett as their head coach. While the Cowboys fired offensive coordinator Scott Linehan, which could lead to changes to their antiquated approach on offense, it's worth remembering that Garrett is an offensive-minded coach. So long as he's roaming the sidelines in Dallas, the Cowboys' offensive approach (run, run, pass) will likely remain the same. 

It's annoying, because the Cowboys have enough talent that it's easy to envision a forward-thinking coach taking over and turning them into a legitimate Super Bowl contender. The Cowboys could still very well get there riding Dak, Zeke, Cooper, and their defense, but the way in which they got to 10 wins in 2018 suggests they're due for a regression. They went 9-3 in games decided by a maximum of eight points in the regular season.

9. Baltimore Ravens

The Ravens are coming off an out-of-nowhere second half of the season that saw them win six of their last seven games to advance to the playoffs. It's no coincidence that their late run came as soon as they benched Joe Flacco for Lamar Jackson. With the rookie under center, the Ravens adopted a run-heavy offense unlike any other offensive approach in football and their defense did the rest. So, why are the Ravens ranked so low?

At some point, Jackson will need to develop as a passer. While I like Jackson's long-term prospects and think he's going to eventually become a very good NFL passer, I think it's reasonable to expect growing pains next season. Furthermore, the Ravens are stuck in the AFC North with the suddenly good Browns and the Steelers, who for all of their faults, are still loaded with talent. 

The Ravens have a promising long-term outlook. They're probably going to be competitive next season. But on a list of 10 Super Bowl contenders, they check in here because of the uncertainty surrounding Jackson's development and their tough competition within the division.

8. Philadelphia Eagles

The health of Carson Wentz has turned into a major and very real concern. A year after tearing up his knee, Wentz suffered a back injury (uh oh) that ended his 2018 season. Wentz's unfortunate injury history hasn't hampered the Eagles over the past two seasons because of the presence of Nick Foles, but Foles is expected to depart Philadelphia this offseason, which means the Eagles might not have the best insurance plan in football anymore. The thing is, before Wentz went down injured, he was piecing together yet another great season, improving his completion percentage, yards per attempt, and passer rating from his near-MVP 2017 season. If he can stay healthy, the Eagles are the clear frontrunners in the NFC East, but at this point, it's fair to question if he can stay healthy over the course of an entire season.

The Eagles fell to eighth largely because the seven teams positioned ahead of them are all damn good teams and because the Eagles are coming off a nine-win season that saw them rank 15th in DVOA with a plus-19 point differential. They're also in salary cap hell, which means some cuts could be coming. Brandon Graham, Golden Tate, and Chris Long are all impending free agents, per Spotrac. They likely won't be able to keep all of them. 

The Eagles, though, are above the Cowboys because they've got the clear advantage in coaching and at quarterback -- if Wentz can stay healthy.  

7. Houston Texans

The Texans have major concerns up front on offense. They need to make the offensive line a priority a year after allowing Deshaun Watson to become the most sacked quarterback in football. But the Texans' outlook remains bright because of Watson, DeAndre Hopkins, and J.J. Watt. That's a tremendous core to build around. 

The Texans are coming off an 11-win season. They were 11th in DVOA. They outscored their opponents by 86 points. Watson proved his rookie season was no fluke. In a full 16-game season, he ranked seventh in completion percentage, sixth in yards per attempt, 12th in touchdown passes, and sixth in passer rating. He added 551 rushing yards and five rushing touchdowns. He did all of this behind the worst offensive line in football. Hopkins set a career-high in receiving yards with 1,572. Watt returned from injury with 16 sacks. 

But the Texans find themselves on the backend of this list because of their offensive line (at some point, all of those hits on Watson will matter ) and because they're stuck in the same as the Colts (more on them a few spots from now). They do, at least, have a good amount of cap space to work with this offseason. They need to put it to good use, but finding stud offensive linemen on the open market is rare. 

6. Seattle Seahawks

We all looked pretty silly doubting the Seahawks, didn't we? 

The rise of the Rams, the 49ers' acquisition of Jimmy Garoppolo, and the Seahawks undergoing a self-described "reset" led many of us to believe that they were finally entering a period of dormancy after owning the NFC West for so many years. The Seahawks responded by adopting a run-heavy approach, trotting out a real offensive line, and revamping their defense. They finished 10-6 and 12th in DVOA, losing to the Cowboys in Dallas in the wild card round. 

Really, that's the problem. The Seahawks are a good team. Pete Carroll is a great coach. Russell Wilson is a great quarterback. But they're stuck in the same division as the Rams, which will make it difficult for them to host a playoff game next season. 

That's the main reason why the Seahawks finished on the wrong half of this list. 

5. Los Angeles Chargers

Likewise, the Chargers fell to No. 5 because they're stuck in the same division as the Chiefs, which means they're likely going to be playing away from home next postseason. Otherwise, the Chargers have the look of a Super Bowl contender. 

Philip Rivers is 37, but he just submitted a 4,308-yard, 32-touchdown season. Melvin Gordon has gone from fantasy star to real life star. Keenan Allen somehow remains underrated. Melvin Ingram and Joey Bosa lead a defense that finished eighth in DVOA. It's easy to forget that the Chargers won 12 games, as many as the Chiefs. This is one of the best teams in football. 

But they are stuck in the same division as the Chiefs, a team that isn't going to magically get worse overnight. Rivers' age is a bit of a concern. At some point, he might drop off. And we have no idea when that'll happen. But if you were expecting me to trash the Chargers in this section, you won't find what you're looking for. The Chargers are a complete team. Now that they've got their kicking situation sorted out, they're not losing the winnable games they used to blow on a regular basis. They don't really have a horrible weakness.

But they're ranked this low because it's extremely difficult to make it to the Super Bowl by winning three straight road games. And that's probably what the Chargers will have to do so long as Mahomes remains in the AFC West.  

4. Indianapolis Colts

To be clear, I think the Chargers are a better team than the Colts. But I think the Colts have a better chance of winning their division -- the Texans will be a formidable foe, though -- and earning a home game or two come January, which matters. Plus, the Colts are just a dang good football team from their general manager to their coach to their personnel. 

Chris Ballard has done an incredible job turning the Colts into more than just Andrew Luck while Frank Reich has done a tremendous job building an offense that protects Luck while Luck himself has exceeded expectations in his return from a shoulder injury that looked like a potential career ender. Luck is coming off a 4,593-yard, 39-touchdown season. A year ago, he couldn't even throw a football.

But, again, it's more than just Luck. The offensive line allowed only 18 sacks. Marlon Mack emerged as a viable RB1. T.Y. Hilton remains criminally underappreciated. And the defense, let's talk about the defense. In 2017, they ranked 27th in DVOA. This past season, they were 10th. The Colts suddenly look like one of the more complete teams in football. 

It's also not unreasonable to project an improvement. For one, the Colts own the most available cap space, which means they can be major players in free agency. They also have that extra second-round draft pick via the Jets.

3. New Orleans Saints

The Saints' last two playoff runs have ended prematurely due to a walk-off Hail Mary in the Divisional Round and one of the most obvious no-calls in NFL history in the conference championship game. The Saints have come oh so close to reaching the Super Bowl in each of the past two seasons. A year ago, they topped this list. 

So, why have they fallen to No. 3 after they got one step closer to a Super Bowl?

The Saints are down to No. 3 because of Drew Brees' age. Over the final month or so of the season, Brees' deep ball lost its effectiveness.

Maybe Brees picked up an injury that we don't know about. Or maybe Brees is a 40-year-old quarterback who is losing his touch as he ages. There's no way to know for certain.

Here's what we do know: Over his final six games of the season (including two playoff games), Brees completed 69.2 percent of his passes, averaged 6.7 yards per attempt, and threw seven touchdowns and five interceptions. In his first 11 games of the season, he completed 76.4 percent of his passes, averaged 8.8 yards per attempt, and threw 29 touchdowns and two picks. 

Fully expect the Saints to be back in the playoffs again next season. They're more than just Brees. They're also Sean Payton, who knows how to get the most out of superstars like Alvin Kamara and Michael Thomas. And they're also a defense that finished just outside the top 10 in DVOA. But it's OK to be slightly concerned about Brees' age heading into the 2019 season. It catches up with everyone at some point.*

*Except Tom Brady, obviously. 

2. Chicago Bears

Bears general manager Ryan Pace's to-do list this offseason shouldn't be that long. He needs to sign a new kicker to replace Cody Parkey -- like, say, Robbie Gould. He needs to make decisions on two key free agents in cornerback Bryce Callahan and safety Adrian Amos. And really, that's it -- besides the normal tweaks and upgrades every team tries to make. The Bears' process of rebuilding is complete after drafting Mitchell Trubisky, building a defense that is strong at every position group, hiring Matt Nagy, bringing in a variety of offensive weapons, and trading for Khalil Mack. 

The thing about the Bears is that they probably can't expect their defense to play as well as they did this past season, when they ranked first in points allowed, first in DVOA, and first in takeaways. Defensive success typically fluctuates a bit on a year to year basis and for the most part, the Bears' defense stayed remarkably healthy during the season, something that also fluctuates on a year to basis. They also relied on turnovers -- again, that fluctuates on a year to year basis. But they should expect their defense to remain very good. There's too much talent there for their defense not to stay very good, even if they did lose Vic Fangio to the Broncos. They just might not be the unstoppable force they were in 2018.

The key to the Bears' future remains Trubisky, who for all of his inconsistencies this past season still completed 66.6 percent of his passes for 3,223 yards, 24 touchdowns, 12 picks, and a 95.4 passer rating in a 14-game season. The Bears are ranked second on this list because I think we're going to see Trubisky take another step in his development. This wasn't just his second season in the NFL. This was also his first season in Nagy's offense. An improvement should be expected. It's also necessary for the Bears to get over the hump.

Entering this past season, the Bears were often compared to the 2017 Rams. During the season, they were sometimes compared to the 2017 Jaguars. Trubisky's progression will determine if the 2019 Bears are more like the 2018 Rams or 2018 Jaguars. I'm willing to bet they'll be more like the 2018 Rams.

1. Kansas City Chiefs

No surprise here. 

The Chiefs went 12-4 with a first-time starting quarterback. Mahomes became the second quarterback in NFL history to throw for 5,000 yards and 50 touchdowns in a single season. They dispatched the Colts with ease in their first playoff game before going toe-to-toe with the Patriots in the AFC title game until they lost an overtime coin toss and couldn't stop one of three third-and-10s on the Patriots' game-winning drive. 

The Chiefs responded by firing defensive coordinator Bob Sutton. It's a move that could get the Chiefs over the hump a year from now. This Chiefs defense graded out poorly in most metrics (24th in points allowed and 27th in DVOA), but they do have several nice pieces in Dee Ford (could be franchise tagged), Chris Jones, Justin Houston (could be cut to save money), and Eric Berry. If the new defensive coordinator can just turn this Chiefs defense into a decent unit, the Chiefs will become Super Bowl worthy. 

The Chiefs' offense will likely take a small step back in 2019 because it's extremely difficult to do what they did in 2018 for a second straight season, but they're still going to remain among the league's best. The key is getting a defense that isn't awful. But even if that doesn't happen -- even if the defense is still among the league's worst -- the Chiefs should be in contention. Even with that awful defense of theirs, they were a coin toss away from going to the Super Bowl. 

The top spot of this list belongs to the 12-4 team that has the best quarterback in football and one of the best coaches in football. A halfway decent defense is all they need now. The Chiefs appear to be well aware of that problem. Now, let's see if they can fix it so Mahomes no longer has to play perfect football to beat top-caliber teams. 

In the Chiefs' five losses, they scored 36.2 points per game and allowed 40.2 points per game.