Super Bowl LVIII is still two months away, which means there's a lot of time for the playoff picture to take shape and unfold. Some teams already look like legit contenders. Still others are in the midst of an identity crisis. And then there's the mass of clubs on the fringe of the postseason standings, still hoping for a miracle run in the final four weeks of action.
As we say goodbye to Week 14 and look ahead to Week 15, which clubs are the most likely to actually compete for a Lombardi Trophy? Here's our current roundup of the top candidates:
Just missed
The Rams (6-7) can score with Matthew Stafford back to slinging it, but Sean McVay's game management hasn't always been helpful. The Texans (7-6) have the gunslinger to play spoiler in C.J. Stroud, but now he's banged up and they've struggled to give him run support. The Packers (6-7) feel like a year away from truly surrounding Jordan Love with a playoff-ready lineup. The Bengals (7-6) need Jake Browning to keep overachieving. And the Saints (6-7) are far too dependent on defensive domination.
10. Jaguars
Record: 8-5 | Point Differential: +22 (10th)
There's been a relatively glaring disparity between player/coaching talent and actual results here, with Doug Pederson and Trevor Lawrence too often letting miscommunications muddy up their return to the playoffs. The defense has also become an absolute sieve against the pass. But in a meh division, with plenty of spirit, they still have time to rebuild momentum.
9. Browns
Record: 8-5 | Point Differential: +17 (12th)
Wait, the team with 38-year-old Joe Flacco under center? Yes, that team. It's a testament to Kevin Stefanski's designs and Jim Schwartz's defense that they're three games above .500 despite starting four different QBs -- most of them subpar -- in 2023. No team is allowing fewer yards, and while Flacco needs to stay upright, he's at least pushing the ball to every level of the field.
8. Lions
Record: 9-4 | Point Differential: +26 (7th)
Jared Goff's been on a cold stretch since a Thanksgiving flop, which isn't good news for a team sorely reliant on a balanced offense, which controls the ball and clock to offset a shoddy defense. Dan Campbell's aggression should keep them scrappy until the very end, but they need to step up in the trenches on both sides if they intend to avoid a one-and-done postseason bid.
7. Dolphins
Record: 9-4 | Point Differential: +117 (4th)
At peak speed, well, no one's faster. The connection between Tua Tagovailoa and Tyreek Hill can't be overstated, and it's embarrassed plenty of secondaries this year. But both Tagovailoa and Mike McDaniel have a lot to prove when under pressure, as evidenced by their stunning prime-time loss on Monday night. They're 0-3 against teams with winning records in 2023, and their red-zone execution in particular needs work.
6. Chiefs
Record: 8-5 | Point Differential: +64 (6th)
Typically immune to late-game hiccups, this team has lacked its championship "it" factor for much of 2023, and most of it can be attributed to Patrick Mahomes' miscue-ridden wide receiver corps. But if their defense stays physical, it's still tough to discount the Mahomes-Andy Reid pairing as long as they're standing. They won't be an easy out for anyone come playoff time.
5. Ravens
Record: 10-3 | Point Differential: +143 (3rd)
They've let enough inferior teams hang around -- the Cardinals, Chargers, Steelers among them -- to warrant some skepticism despite such a sterling record. But Lamar Jackson's been efficient, Odell Beckham Jr. is heating up, and the Roquan Smith-led defense has been a pocket-wrecking unit for much of the year. Can they put it all together down the stretch?
4. Bills
Record: 7-6 | Point Differential: +104 (5th)
Wait, what?! They're barely above .500, you say! True. And as long as Josh Allen is Josh Allen, the roller-coaster ride will continue. But only four teams have scored more points this year, and every single one of their losses was a one-score decision; two came in overtime. Unpredictable as they may be, their offensive firepower always gives them a chance to steal the day.
3. Eagles
Record: 10-3 | Point Differential: +21 (11th)
On one hand, you don't start 10-1 by accident, especially when those wins include heroic showings against the Bills, Dolphins and Chiefs. On the other, the Eagles can't stop coughing up the ball, and their defense -- complete with an injury-thinned secondary -- is aging by the week. Finishing strong could help restore their signature swagger, but they need more creativity all around.
2. Cowboys
Record: 10-3 | Point Differential: +188 (1st)
Dallas has almost never lacked for premium talent; the issue has always been answering the call on the biggest stages. But Dak Prescott looks more comfortable now than perhaps ever before, dishing it out at an MVP pace, and their perimeter weapons on both sides -- CeeDee Lamb, Stephon Gilmore, DaRon Bland -- are a problem. Let's see if they can keep it up as January looms.
1. 49ers
Record: 10-3 | Point Differential: +175 (2nd)
It feels like a copout to crown them at this point, but they truly are imposing. Brock Purdy is automatic as the point guard, Christian McCaffrey is as tough as he is dynamic, and their defense rallies to the ball with physicality. It's like the balanced Kyle Shanahan contenders of years past, except even more explosive. The X-factor, as always, is the durability of the lineup.
