Race for the No. 1 pick in 2024 NFL Draft: Bears, Cardinals and Patriots in the hunt for top selection

A look at the race for the top pick and the percentage chances for each team

By Jordan Dajani

Nov 29, 2023 at 8:47 am ET • 3 min read

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The NFL playoff picture continues to evolve as we enter Week 13 of the regular season, but the race for the No. 1 overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft is becoming much more clear. Following the conclusion of Week 12, there are three teams with the best chances to win the Caleb Williams or Drake Maye sweepstakes: The Chicago Bears, Arizona Cardinals and Bill Belichick's New England Patriots. Which squad will "out-lose" the others over the next six weeks?

Below, we will break down the percentage chances for each team to win the No. 1 overall pick, according to SportsLine data scientist Stephen Oh's simulations, along with their chances to secure a top-three pick. Let's start with the most interesting team in this race.

Chicago Bears (and their pick from the Carolina Panthers)

Odds to land No. 1 overall pick: 58.4%

Eight months ago, the Bears sold the No. 1 overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft to the Panthers for wide receiver D.J. Moore, two picks in the 2023 draft, Carolina's 2024 first-round pick and a 2025 second-round pick. The Bears, who currently sit at 4-8, again have a shot at the top pick in the draft, but the majority of their chance comes from the pick they got from the Panthers, who are 1-10!

Frank Reich has already been fired, and No. 1 overall pick Bryce Young has struggled mightily. The Panthers are currently the lone one-win team in the NFL, and they don't even own their first-round pick! Talk about a nightmare scenario.

Since the Bears own two numbers in this lotto drawing, they have the best chance to earn that top pick. According to SportsLine data scientist Stephen Oh, the Bears have a 58.4% chance to win the No. 1 overall pick, and a 99% chance of earning a top-three pick.

Bears remaining schedule

Week	Opponent
14	vs. Detroit Lions
15	at Cleveland Browns
16	vs. Arizona Cardinals
17	vs. Atlanta Falcons
18	at Green Bay Packers

Current record: 4-8
Projected final record: 6-11

Panthers remaining schedule

Week	Opponent
13	at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
14	at New Orleans Saints
15	vs. Atlanta Falcons
16	vs. Green Bay Packers
17	at Jacksonville Jaguars
18	vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Current record: 1-10
Projected final record: 3-14

Arizona Cardinals

Odds to land No. 1 overall pick: 22%

The Cardinals entered 2023 as the preseason favorites to be the worst team in the league. However, Arizona has somewhat overperformed. Joshua Dobbs kept the Cards competitive through the early stages of the regular season, and now Kyler Murray is back under center. He led a game-winning drive against the Falcons in his first start, came up just short against the Houston Texans in Week 11 and then was blown out by the Los Angeles Rams on Sunday. Tankathon believes the Cardinals have the fourth-toughest remaining schedule, so a top-three pick seems likely.

SportsLine's Oh gives Arizona the second-best odds of picking first in the 2024 NFL Draft at 22%, and an 82.5% chance of landing in the top three.

Cardinals remaining schedule

Week	Opponent
13	at Pittsburgh Steelers
15	vs. San Francisco 49ers
16	at Chicago Bears
17	at Philadelphia Eagles
18	vs. Seattle Seahawks

Current record: 2-10
Projected final record: 4-13

New England Patriots

Odds to land No. 1 overall pick: 18.6%

It feels like things are getting worse and worse for the Patriots. This past week against the New York Giants, New England recorded its fourth game this season with seven points or fewer scored. The Patriots had five such games with Tom Brady as their starter. The Patriots also became the first team in 30 years to lose back-to-back games when allowing 10 or fewer points.

Mac Jones started at quarterback again on Sunday, and threw for 89 yards and two interceptions. At halftime, he was benched for Bailey Zappe, who threw for 54 yards and an interception in the 10-7 loss. So, here we are. Belichick is 2-9, which is the worst 11-game start in his incredible career. New England is averaging 13.5 points per game this season, which ranks second-worst in the NFL, and I don't see things getting any better.