It finally happened. I had a good NFL week picking games in all three phases, straight up, against the spread and with my Best Bets on the Pick Six Podcast.
I went 9-4 straight up, 8-5 ATS and 4-2 with my Best Bets. That improves my season records to 66-47 straight up, 57-47-3 ATS and 22-22 with my Best Bets.
It's time to get back on track in a big way with the Best Bets. As for my overall ATS picks, I started strong and faded fast with losers in the Sunday and Monday night games.
Let's hope the hot streak keeps going and that Halloween weekend doesn't turn these picks into a scary mess.
Green Bay Packers (+6.5) at Arizona Cardinals
This is the game of the week. The two teams are a combined 13-1 and the winner can stake the claim as the best in the NFC. This should be an offensive shootout as both defenses will have issues slowing the other team's quarterback. In the end, I think being at home in a short week will give the Cardinals the edge. The impact of potentially not having Davante Adams will be too much to overcome for the Packers.
Pick: Cardinals 31, Packers 26
Cincinnati Bengals (-10) at New York Jets
The Bengals are coming off an impressive victory last week as Joe Burrow is rolling and the defense is playing well. They get a drop down in competition facing the Jets, who won't have Zach Wilson. There might be a letdown early for Cincinnati, but the Bengals will dominate in the second half.
Pick: Bengals 31, Jets 13
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Tennessee Titans (-1) at Indianapolis Colts
This is a big game in terms of the division. The Titans beat the Colts earlier this year at home, but this Colts group is much improved from that team. But I still think the Tennessee run game will be too much for the Indianapolis defense. Derrick Henry comes up big as the Titans take a stronghold on the division.
Pick: Titans 23, Colts 17
Los Angeles Rams (-14.5) at Houston Texans
The Rams didn't play well in beating the Lions last week. This week, they get another of the league's bottom teams in the Texans. Houston isn't even competing anymore. The Rams will come into Houston and roll in a big victory as Matt Stafford lights that defense up.
Pick: Rams 36, Texans 14
Pittsburgh Steelers (+3.5) at Cleveland Browns
This is big game inside the division, but the Browns will be without Baker Mayfield. That means it's even more pressing that they run the ball. They've done it all year, but the Steelers run defense is solid. The Browns defense played better against the Broncos and I think that carries over. Browns take it with Case Keenum at quarterback.
Pick: Browns 23, Steelers 22
Philadelphia Eagles (-3.5) at Detroit Lions
The Eagles are playing consecutive road games, which is a challenge. They didn't look good on the road against the Raiders. The Lions are coming off a tough loss to the Rams. They played well, but I think the Eagles are still the better team. Jalen Hurts will bounce back and play well.
Pick: Eagles 28, Lions 23
San Francisco 49ers (-3.5) at Chicago Bears
These two teams are really struggling, especially at the quarterback position. That makes this have the look of a defensive battle. The biggest mismatch is the 49ers front against the Bears offensive line. I think Nick Bosa and company force some takeaways, which leads to short fields. 49ers win it.
Pick: 49ers 22, Bears 17
Carolina Panthers (+3) at Atlanta Falcons
The Panthers and Falcons are going in opposite directions with the Falcons winning two straight, while the Panthers have lost four straight games. Atlanta has played well on offense this season, while the Panthers are struggling on that side of the ball. Atlanta continues streaking. Falcons take it.
Pick: Falcons 27, Panthers 20
Miami Dolphins (+13.5) at Buffalo Bills
The Bills are coming off a bye after a tough loss to the Titans, while the Dolphins are on a six-game losing streak. The Bills beat the Dolphins earlier this season when Tua Tagovailoa was knocked from the game. He's back, but it won't matter. Buffalo will get back on track.
Pick: Bills 33, Dolphins 17
New England Patriots (+5.5) at Los Angeles Chargers
This is long trip against a team coming off a bye for the Patriots. That's always a challenge, but it's even tougher facing a good Chargers team that lost the last time out. I think the Chargers and Justin Herbert will bounce back from that loss and play well here. Chargers take it and cover.
Pick: Chargers 30, Patriots 20
Jacksonville Jaguars (+3) at Seattle Seahawks
The Jaguars are coming off their bye after winning for the first time two weeks ago. Seattle is in the middle of a free fall without Russell Wilson. But this is a tough trip for a young team in a tough place to play. The Seahawks get a much-needed victory.
Pick: Seahawks 23, Jaguars 17
Washington Football Team (+3) at Denver Broncos
Both these teams have had major issues as of late. The Broncos have offensive issues, but they also have a ton of injuries on defense now. Washington played better on defense last week against the Packers, which is a good sign. I think that will continue here. Washington wins in an upset.
Pick: Washington 23, Denver 17
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-5) at New Orleans Saints
This is a classic matchup of the Tampa Bay offense against the Saints defense. The Saints beat the Bucs twice in the regular season last year, but the Bucs won in New Orleans in the playoffs. This crowd will be a lot different, making it even more of a challenge. I think Jameis Winston will get revenge on his old team thanks to the defense. Saints win it outright.
Pick: Saints 26, Bucs 20
Dallas Cowboys at Minnesota Vikings (+2.5)
Both teams are coming off a bye, so they will be rested. Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott needed the rest with his injured calf, so he should be good to go. The Vikings have played solid football the past two games, but this is a big step up in competition. Look for a lot of points in this one, but I will go with a home-team upset.
Pick: Vikings 28, Cowboys 27
New York Giants at Kansas City Chiefs (-10)
This should be a get-right game for the Chiefs. The defense isn't good, but it's the poor play of the offense that has surprised some. This will be their time to get it turned around. Patrick Mahomes has struggled lately, but he won't in this one. Chiefs big.
Pick: Chiefs 33, Giants 16
