TAMPA -- The postseason has not been good to me as it relates to my picks. In fact, I've downright stunk it up.
Maybe a change of cities will be a good thing for me. We are here in Tampa for Super Bowl LV, which I hope can change my postseason fortunes.
I went 0-2 against the spread with my championship game picks, taking the Buffalo Bills to cover against the Kansas City Chiefs and the Green Bay Packers to cover against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. That dropped my season record to 126-132-9, which means the postseason has taken me far under .500.
The losing changes here.
I love this Super Bowl. It has everything to make it a great one. Two great quarterbacks, stars all over the field, and two coaches who aren't afraid to turn it loose. It should be a fun, entertaining evening of football. So let's get to the pick.
Super Bowl LV is almost here, and you can watch it for free on the CBS Sports App.
Kansas City Chiefs at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
This is Tom Brady against Patrick Mahomes, the legend against a Chiefs quarterback who will certainly be that himself someday. The Chiefs are trying to do something Brady did when he was in New England, which is to win consecutive Super Bowls.
For most of this season, this Kansas City team didn't look as dominant as it did last year. But the Chiefs amped it up big time against the Bills. When Mahomes is cooking, they are almost impossible to stop.
We know the Bucs and defensive coordinator Todd Bowles love to blitz, but that's suicide against Mahomes, who is the best in the league against the blitz. Injuries to both starting tackles for the Chiefs could mean less blitzing is needed, but I still think the Bucs will be true to who they are, which is an attack defense. That could and should mean a lot of big plays.
When the two teams met earlier this year, a game won by the Chiefs, Tyreek Hill destroyed the Bucs secondary with eight catches for 210 yards and two scores — in the first half alone. Mahomes threw for 359 yards in the first half as he ate up that attacking defense. The Chiefs' loss of both starting tackles could impact that some here as Tampa Bay's edge rushers are coming off an impressive game against Aaron Rodgers.
The first meeting was close in the end, but the Chiefs looked like the much better team that day as they jumped to a big lead and then held on. Brady threw two picks and the Tampa Bay offensive line had trouble with the attacking, blitzing style that Kansas City used that day. The Tampa Bay line has come on strong in the second half of the season and into the playoffs, so they should be better prepared this time around.
That could mean a lot of big plays for Brady as well. Tampa Bay has also run the ball better in the postseason with Leonard Fournette, which could help take some of that pressure away.
What picks can you make with confidence or the Super Bowl? What props should you make? And what will the exact final score be? Visit SportsLine now to see which picks you should be all over, all from the model that's up nearly $7,900 on its top-rated picks.
The Chiefs secondary impressed against the Bills as they used a 4-1-6 defensive grouping for much of the game. They will likely use that again here to try and take away Brady's big plays, but that's where Fournette and Ronald Jones could be key.
A running game would keep Mahomes off the field, but that's a nice plan until you look up and it's 14-3. Then what?
That's why I think both coaches will be who they are, which is aggressive, offensive-minded men. With two quarterbacks playing at a high level, one the greatest ever and the other on his way to making a case for himself being that someday, I would expect a lot of offense. With two aggressive defenses, look for some big turnovers as well.
That means a lot of points. This one will be high-scoring, but in the end I think Mahomes and his skill players, especially Hill and tight end Travis Kelce, will get the best of Tampa Bay's defense.
Blitz and you will pay.
Mahomes has always been that way, and that won't change on the biggest stage.
Pick: Chiefs 35, Bucs 30
