Patriots vs. Texans odds, picks, how to watch, live stream: Model reveals 2021 Week 5 NFL predictions

SportsLine's model reveals its NFL picks for Houston Texans vs. New England Patriots on CBS and Paramount+

By CBS Sports Staff

Oct 10, 2021 at 12:02 pm ET • 2 min read

Two rookie quarterbacks will go head-to-head in Week 5 as Mac Jones and the Patriots take on Davis Mills and the Texans. Jones has had his ups and downs but is coming off an impressive showing versus the Buccaneers. On the other hand, Mills has struggled while filling in for the injured Tyrod Taylor. The third-round rookie from Stanford threw four interceptions last week as Houston's offense set records for futility. You can watch Texans vs. Patriots in select markets on Paramount+.

NRG Stadium in Houston will host this 1 p.m. ET kickoff. Caesars Sportsbook lists New England as an eight-point favorite in the latest Patriots vs. Texans odds. The over-under for total points is 39, the lowest of Week 5. In select markets, Sunday's matchup can be seen live on CBS and streamed live on Paramount+ with their must-have Premium plan.

Paramount+ now has levels of membership so you can watch your local NFL on CBS matchups and much more. The Premium Plan is $9.99 per month and you can watch your local CBS live stream, including plenty of sports like SEC on CBS, NFL on CBS, and the PGA Tour, with no ads, on demand and the ability to download episodes for offline viewing. Both plans come with a free week to start and include the NFL on CBS, so sign up now here.

How to watch Texans vs. Patriots

Date: Sunday, Oct. 10
Time: 1 p.m. ET
TV: CBS
Streaming: Paramount+

Week 5 NFL picks for Patriots vs. Texans

Before you tune in to Sunday's Texans vs. Patriots game, you need to see the NFL picks from SportsLine's advanced computer model. The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up almost $7,900 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception six-plus years ago. It went a sizzling 24-14 on top-rated NFL picks last season, returning more than $800. The model also enters Week 5 of the 2021 season on an incredible 124-82 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season.

The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past five years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94 percent of CBS Sports Football Pick'em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

For Patriots vs. Texans, the model is backing the Patriots to cover the eight-point spread. It has Houston's struggles on both sides of the ball continuing as the model projects the Patriots to cover in well over 50 percent of simulations.

It's rare for a rookie like Jones to be at least a touchdown favorite as it's happened just six times previously since 2019. But those rookie QBs are 5-1 against the spread in those situations and facing another rookie in Mills certainly doesn't hurt. Houston had -23 net passing yards in the first half against Buffalo last week, which is the fewest first half yards by any team since 1999.

Mills has spent 2.5 games as the Texans' quarterback and the team has mustered all of nine points over those 10 quarters. The model recognizes Houston's difficulties moving the ball and it projects Brandin Cooks as the only Texan to surpass 45 yards from scrimmage. New England is projected to have four such players, which results in the Patriots easily covering the spread.