Replacing longtime New England Patriots offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels, now the head coach of the Las Vegas Raiders, with former Detroit Lions head coach and former New England Patriots defensive coordinator Matt Patricia as the Patriots' offensive play-caller went as expected -- poorly. Also, as expected, there will be changes to the New England coaching staff following head coach Bill Belichick's end-of-season meeting with team owner Robert Kraft. The Patriots announced they will begin interviewing candidates to be the next offensive coordinator next week.
In that same forthcoming statement, New England also announced it was negotiating a long-term deal to keep inside linebackers coach Jerod Mayo in Foxborough. Mayo, who was a star linebacker for the Patriots for eight seasons, is one of the league's hottest head-coaching commodities. There appears to be progress on that front as Mayo informed the Carolina Panthers he won't be interviewing to be their next head coach, according to NBC Sports Boston.
The 2022 New England Patriots were the worst third-down (34.9% conversion percentage) and red zone offense (42.2% red zone touchdown percentage) of the Belichick era, since 2000, so safe to say Patricia will likely be in for a new assignment on Belichick's staff or let go altogether. The 48-year-old Patricia has spent 16 seasons on Belichick's staff with roles varying from offensive assistant (2004), assistant offensive line coach (2005), linebackers coach (2006-2010), safeties coach (2011), defensive coordinator (2012-2017), assistant head coach (2021), and offensive line coach and senior advisor (2022).
Patriots' offensive rankings
| Belichick Era Rank* | ||
|---|---|---|
PPG | 21.4 | 3rd-worst |
Total YPG | 314.6 | 3rd-worst |
3rd-Down Pct | 34.9% | Worst |
Red Zone TD Pct | 42.2% | Worst |
* Since 2000
The decline in the Patriots' third-down and red zone offenses is stark, dropping from around the top 10 in McDaniels' last season as offensive coordinator in 2021 to bottom 10 or dead last in the entire NFL in Patricia's first season as New England's offensive coordinator.
Patriots Offense last two seasons (NFL ranks)
| 2021 | 2022 | |
|---|---|---|
PPG | 27.2 (6th) | 21.4 (17th) |
Total YPG | 353.4 (15th) | 314.6 (26th) |
3rd-Down Pct | 43.5% (10th) | 34.9% (27th) |
Red Zone TD Pct | 61.9% (11th) | 42.2% (Last) |
Among those frustrated with the offensive scheme in 2022 was quarterback Mac Jones, the team's 15th overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft and 2021 Offensive Rookie of the Year runner-up. Jones became only the 10th rookie in NFL history to throw for over 3,500 passing yards (3,801) and more than 20 touchdowns (22) in 2021, but he experienced a significant regression under Patricia in 2022. His frustration with the offensive play-calling even boiled over in a 24-10 loss against the Buffalo Bills on "Thursday Night Football" when Jones had enough with the Patriots' conservative approach.
Mac Jones to Matt Patricia:
— Warren Sharp (@SharpFootball) December 2, 2022
THROW THE F*CKING BALL
F*CKING RUN GAME SUCKSpic.twitter.com/EhtEDkQr9F
Mac Jones career statistics (NFL ranks)
| 2021 | 2022 | |
|---|---|---|
Comp Pct | 67.6% (8th) | 65.2% (17th) |
Pass YPG | 223.6 (16th) | 214.1 (15th) |
Pass Yards/Att | 7.3 (14th) | 6.8 (25th) |
TD-INT | 22-13 (17th) | 14-11 (26th) |
Passer Rating | 92.5 (15th) | 84.8 (26th) |
While bringing McDaniels back for a third stint as New England's offensive coordinator isn't an option this offseason for Belichick, expect Belichick to cast a net far and wide to find a play-caller who can get Jones back on track after a lost year in his 24-year-old quarterback's development.
