The New England Patriots and Indianapolis Colts are gearing up for a rare Saturday night matchup on deck for Week 15. Both of these teams are coming off a bye and are in the thick of the playoff race in the AFC. For the Patriots, they sit as the No. 1 seed in the conference, while Indy is slotted as the No. 6 seed. Given how razor-thin the margins are within the conference, a win here could go a long way in ensuring their spot in the playoffs.
Below, we'll specifically be looking at the different betting angles that this matchup has on deck for us. We'll be taking a look at how the lines have moved throughout the week leading into Saturday night and, of course, give you our picks for this game along with a handful of our favorite player props.
All NFL odds via Caesars Sportsbook.
How to watch
Date: Saturday, Dec. 18 | Time: 8:20 p.m. ET
Location: Lucas Oil Stadium (Indianapolis)
TV: NFL Network | Stream: fuboTV (try for free)
Follow: CBS Sports App
Odds: Colts -2.5, O/U 45.5
Line movement
New England opened as a 1-point road favorite in this head-to-head, but that advantage quickly started to disappear once this game started to get closer. Last Sunday it moved to a pick'em before it fully swung in the direction of the Colts, who were a 2-point favorite by Monday morning. That spread has held throughout the week.
The pick: Patriots +2. The Patriots are not only coming into this game on a seven-game winning streak, but they've also covered every single one of those contests as well. The Colts will be a tough challenge, however, as they roll out star running back Jonathan Taylor. Stopping the run has been a weakness for New England, but Bill Belichick historically has been able to take away an opponent's best weapon on offense. If he does that with Taylor, it's hard to imagine that Carson Wentz will be able to lead the Colts to victory. Indy also hasn't fared well at home with a 3-7 ATS mark in its last 10 games at Lucas Oil Stadium.
Key trend: Patriots are 6-1 ATS following a bye week.
Over/Under total
The total opened at 43.5 but has bumped up quite a bit as this week as progressed. It bumped to 44 on Sunday evening and then continued to rise to begin the week and has since risen to 45.5.
The pick: Under 45.5. Both of these teams' bread and butter offensively is to run the football. If they can move the ball effectively on the ground, that inherently lowers the scoring ceiling for this game. The Patriots are also one of the best teams in the NFL at keeping opponents out of the end zone. Once their opponents have reached the red zone, New England is only allowing them to score a touchdown on 25% of their trips over the last three games (best in the NFL).
Key trend: Under is 8-2 in Patriots last 10 road games.
Mac Jones props
- Passing touchdowns: 1.5 (Over +110, Under -140)
- Passing yards: 226.5 (Over -115, Under -115)
- Interceptions: 0.5 (Over -120, Under -110)
- Completions: 20.5 (Over -125, Under -105)
- Longest passing completion: 34.5 (Over -110, Under-120)
I lean toward the Under on Jones' passing yards prop of 226.5 at even money. While he'll likely throw more than just three times as he did against the Bills in Week 13, Jones hasn't been asked to uncork it a bunch during this winning streak. Even when you exclude Week 13, he's only gone over this total twice in six games. Jones also ranks 24th among 32 qualified quarterbacks against zone coverage this season. The Colts have lined up in zone on 72% of their defensive snaps this season, which is the eighth-highest rate in the NFL.
Carson Wentz props
- Passing touchdowns: 1.5 (Over +130, Under -160)
- Passing yards: 226.5 (Over -115, Under- 115)
- Interceptions: 0.5 (Over -110, Under -120)
- Longest passing completion: 34.5 (Over -115, Under -115)
- Rushing yards: 9.5 (Over -125, Under -105)
The value isn't fantastic at -160, but the Under 1.5 touchdowns for Wentz is a solid play. As we noted above, the Patriots have been great at keeping teams out of the end zone. This season, New England has allowed the third-fewest passing touchdowns in the NFL (15).
Player props to consider
Hunter Henry total receiving yards: Over 25.5 (-120). Henry has blossomed into one of Jones' go-to weapons and has a solid matchup in front of him with the Colts. This season, Indy is allowing opposing tight ends to average 67.2 receiving yards per game.
T.Y. Hilton total receiving yards: Under 29.5 (-115). The number is just too low for what we've seen from Hilton this season. He's only gone over this total once (Week 6 vs. Houston) and has floating around 50% of the offensive snaps in his games played this season. One catch could burn us here, so proceed with caution, but there isn't much that Hilton has shown to suggest he'll go over here.
