We get a Monday night NFL doubleheader in Week 2, as the Carolina Panthers host the New Orleans Saints at 7:15 p.m. ET, and the Cleveland Browns and Pittsburgh Steelers kick off an hour later (if you're wondering why there are two games, click here).
The addition of Derek Carr made the Saints the preseason favorites in the NFC South, and they started their season with a 16-15 win over the Tennessee Titans. This matchup was lacking in offensive fireworks, but New Orleans' defense stepped up with three interceptions. The Panthers, on the other hand, fell to the Atlanta Falcons in Week 1 by 14 points despite out-gaining Atlanta in total offense. Carolina's three turnovers really hurt, and No. 1 overall pick Bryce Young was responsible for two of them.
Below, we will break down Saints vs. Panthers from a gambling perspective, and examine the line movement, Over/Under and player props to consider. First, here's how you can watch the game.
All NFL odds are via Caesars Sportsbook.
How to watch
Date: Monday, Sept. 18 | Time: 7:15 p.m. ET
Location: Bank of America Stadium (Charlotte, NC)
TV: ESPN | Stream: fubo (try for free)
Follow: CBS Sports App
Odds: Saints -3, O/U 39.5
Line movement
This line opened at Saints -2.5 last Sunday. On Monday, it was bumped up to Saints -3. That's the only movement we saw this week.
The pick: Saints -3. I actually made this game a best bet. Here's what I said:
"I have no problem with how No. 1 overall pick Bryce Young played in his first NFL game. He had a couple of interceptions, but he's a rookie and will continue to improve as the year goes on. Unfortunately, he doesn't have the kind of support/foundation around him that I thought he would. We are just one game through the NFL season and Carolina is dealing with some notable injuries. D.J. Chark has a nagging hamstring injury that kept him out on Sunday, offensive guard Brady Christensen was just ruled out for the remainder of the year, fellow offensive guard Austin Corbett is still out and cornerback Jaycee Horn suffered a "serious" hamstring injury. Plus, Carolina doesn't have the deepest roster in the league.
"The Saints offense didn't have an incredible outing against the Tennessee Titans, but this New Orleans defense will make things very tough on Young. The unit picked off Ryan Tannehill three times in Week 1!"
Over/Under 39.5
The total reopened at 41.5 last Sunday, but quickly fell to 40.5. Monday, it bounced around from 39.5 to 41, but ended the day at 40.5. On Saturday, it fell back down to 39.5.
The pick: Under 39.5. This number is low, there's no doubt about it. But if you want to bet on the total, I still would recommend the Under. The Under has hit in five straight meetings between these two teams, and the Under has hit in six straight primetime games for the Panthers. Both teams didn't get to 20 points last week, and I think both defenses are the strengths for these squads.
Derek Carr props
Passing touchdowns: 1.5 (Over -104, Under -131)
Passing yards: 234.5 (Over -101, Under -135)
Passing attempts: 30.5 (Over -115, Under -119)
Passing completions: 19.5 (Over -117, Under -117)
Longest passing completion: 36.5 (Over -117, Under -117)
Interceptions: 0.5 (Over -109, Under -125)
I believe there's some value on Carr Over 1.5 passing touchdowns at -104, but I can't say I have a great read on his passing yards number. If I'm high on the Saints in this matchup, I understand there's a possibility Carr won't need to shred through the air in order for New Orleans to move to 2-0. I have a lean to the Under on Carr's passing attempts, and I'll take the Under on longest passing completion. I will not touch Carr's interception prop.
Bryce Young props
Passing touchdowns: 0.5 (Over -234, Under +165)
Passing yards: 187.5 (Over -111, Under -123)
Passing attempts: 28.5 (Over -109, Under -125)
Passing completions: 17.5 (Over -117, Under -117)
Longest passing completion: 31.5 (Over -104, Under -131)
Interceptions: 0.5 (Over -127, Under -108)
I believe Young will throw a touchdown on Monday night, but I'm not betting that juice. Maybe include it in a same-game parlay. Young threw for just 146 yards in Week 1, but I'll lean Over on passing yards since Carolina could find itself in a situation where it needs to pass the ball. That's not a best bet for me. I do like the Over on Young's passing completions and the Under on longest passing completion. I'm surprised the juice is just -127 on Young to throw an interception. There's some value there in my opinion.
Props to consider
Adam Thielen receptions: Over 2.5 (-151). I was surprised to see Thielen catch just two passes for 12 yards in Week 1. I thought the veteran could potentially be Young's go-to guy, but again, it's early in the year. This is juicy but I'll take it. I don't hate the Over on his receiving yards number either (33.5).
Juwan Johnson receiving yards: Over 23.5 (-119). This number is too low. Johnson caught three of five targets for 36 yards in Week 1.
Blake Grupe made field goals: Over 1.5 (-115). From being hassled by the security members hired to protect him, to becoming the No. 1 kicker for the New Orleans Saints. You gotta love Grupe's story. He made all three of his field goal attempts in Week 1. I say he hits two on Monday night.
Jamaal Williams anytime touchdown (+140): Going to take a flier here on a guy who had 17 TDs with the Lions last season.
Looking for more props? The SportsLine AI has generated predictions for the key skill players on Monday night and has 12 other props rated four stars or better! You NEED to see the model's analysis before making any prop bets for Monday night's slate.
