After a drama-filled offseason in which Aaron Rodgers' future in Green Bay was in doubt, the Packers kick off the 2021 season on Sunday against the New Orleans Saints at TIAA Bank Field in Jacksonville, Fla., with their future Hall of Fame quarterback under center. Rodgers said his displeasure with the franchise stemmed mostly from him not having more input in personnel decisions. The 37-year-old quarterback said he even considered retirement. But he eventually got enough assurances from the front office to return to the team for at least this season. On Sunday he faces a franchise that lost its Hall of Fame quarterback, Drew Brees, to retirement in the offseason. Because of damage caused to New Orleans last month by Hurricane Ida, the game was moved from the Caesars Superdome to Jacksonville.

Kickoff is at 4:25 p.m. ET. Green Bay is a 3.5-point favorite in the latest Packers vs. Saints odds from Caesars Sportsbook, while the over-under for total points scored is 49.5. Before you make any Saints vs. Packers picks, make sure to check out the NFL predictions and betting advice from SportsLine's proven computer model. 

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up almost $7,900 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception six years ago. It went a sizzling 24-14 on top-rated NFL picks last season, returning more than $800. The model also enters the 2021 season on an incredible 120-78 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season.

The model also ranked in the Top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past five years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94 percent of CBS Sports Football Pick'em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

Now, the model has simulated Packers vs. Saints 10,000 times and just revealed its NFL expert picks and predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see its picks. Here are several NFL odds and betting trends for Saints vs. Packers:

  • Packers vs. Saints spread: Green Bay -3.5
  • Packers vs. Saints over-under: 49.5 points
  • Packers vs. Saints money line: Green Bay -190, New Orleans +160
  • GB: Aaron Rodgers led the NFL with 48 passing touchdowns last season
  • NO: Saints tied for third in the NFL in turnover differential (+9) last year

Why the Packers can cover

Green Bay has arguably the best receiver in the NFL in Davante Adams. Last season, Adams became just the third player in NFL history to have 100-plus receptions and 16-plus receiving touchdowns in a single season, joining Cris Carter in 1995 and Randy Moss in 2003. Adams' 18 receiving touchdowns in 2020 tied for the third most in a season in NFL history and the most
since Moss in 2007.

In addition, the Packers face a New Orleans offense that is breaking in a new pass-catching corps. The Saints enter Sunday's game without four of their top six pass catchers from last season: Emmanuel Sanders and Jared Cook (who left via free agency), Michael Thomas (PUP list) and Latavius Murray (released). The four combined for 161 receptions for 1,844 yards and 13 touchdowns last year. 

Why the Saints can cover

Running back Alvin Kamara is coming off a career season. The rushing-and-receiving threat from Tennessee set career highs in rushing yards (932), rushing touchdowns (16), receptions (83) and total touchdowns (21) last season. His 21 total touchdowns led the NFL.

In addition, the New Orleans defense faces a Packers team that will be playing without two key members of their offensive line from last season. Green Bay will be without center Corey Linsley, who left in free agency in the offseason, and left tackle David Bakhtiari, who is still recovering from a torn ACL in his left knee. The loss of Bakhtiari is particularly significant; he's a five-time All-Pro, a three-time Pro Bowler and arguably the best offensive tackle in the game and blocks Rodgers' blind side.

How to make Saints vs. Packers picks

SportsLine's model is leaning over on the total, projecting the teams to combine for 51 points. It also says one side of the spread cashes in more than 50 percent of simulations. Head to SportsLine to see its NFL picks. 

So who wins Packers vs. Saints? And which side of the spread hits in over 50 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see the Saints vs. Packers picks, all from the model that has returned almost $7,900 on top-rated NFL picks, and find out.