We are officially on a heater, going 22-6 against the spread over the past two weeks. That includes an 8-2 run on our top five picks. I think my favorite pick last week was taking the Washington Commanders to win straight-up against the Green Bay Packers even though they were 4.5-point underdogs and starting Taylor Heinicke for the first game this season. I even correctly predicted the final score. Sometimes you're hot, sometimes you're not. I just hope I can keep it going this week.
Something we need to talk about before jumping into the picks is the Tennessee Titans. We've made them a best bet in each of the last three weeks, and they have cashed for us. This week, however, I'm demoting them to the "other Week 8 picks" section. The reason is because Ryan Tannehill hurt his ankle, and can't move around too well. Despite that, I'm fully expecting him to play on Sunday vs. the Houston Texans. I'm more nervous about this matchup for Tennessee, and while I'll take the Titans to cover, I won't make it a best bet this time around.
Alright. Let's take a look at what I'm thinking this week. As always, credit to the CBS Sports research team for making me sound smart.
All odds come courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook
Top five picks ATS record: 17-18
Overall ATS record: 58-49-1
Straight up record: 67-40-1
Miami Dolphins (-3.5) at Detroit Lions
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
The Dolphins didn't cover against the Pittsburgh Steelers last week, which is something I correctly predicted, but now Tua Tagovailoa has worked out the kinks and he's ready to get going again. Additionally, he and head coach Mike McDaniel get to have some fun against what is statistically the worst defense in the NFL. The offense ain't doing too well either, as the Lions have scored just six combined points over the last two games. They also turned the ball over five times last week vs. the Dallas Cowboys.
Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle have combined for 1,394 receiving yards this season, which is the most by any duo through Week 7 IN NFL HISTORY. I think this week provides an interesting opportunity for McDaniel to open some things up offensively -- both on the ground and through the air. To be honest with you I hate 3.5-point lines, but you also have to hate where this Lions team is right now. The Dolphins are 4-0 when Tagovailoa plays the entire game, so I'll just hope Miami wins by at least four.
The pick: Dolphins -3.5
Projected score: Dolphins 30-23
Las Vegas Raiders (-1.5) at New Orleans Saints
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
I didn't find too much support when tossing around this prospective best bet with people I trust, but this is one of those "spots" that you like. Did you know that the Saints have the No. 3 offense in the NFL? Seriously. They are behind just the Buffalo Bills and Kansas City Chiefs! A couple of other things I like about the Saints here is that Andy Dalton finally got the official starting nod, so that's some added confidence for him, New Orleans also had a long week to prepare for this game plus get healthy and then the Raiders have a bottom 10 defense.
This Saints defense has to be better, but I think Dennis Allen defeats his former team if Dalton's offense can chill out with the turnovers.
The pick: Saints +1.5
Projected score: Saints 30-26
Washington Commanders at Indianapolis Colts (-3)
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (Fox, FuboTV)
The Colts look like a mess right now, and they shocked the NFL world this week when they announced that they were benching quarterback Matt Ryan for Sam Ehlinger. I'm surprised by the decision to bench Ryan, but I'm not surprised by their confidence in Ehlinger -- and you shouldn't be either. He's more mobile, he's played well in the preseason and he's a guy that can inject some energy into an offense. Kind of like a Taylor Heinicke.
Washington's favorite quarterback had a terrible first half against the Packers, but definitely rebounded in the final two quarters. He finished completing 20 of 33 passes for 201 yards, two touchdowns and one interception. He's got weapons, as Terry McLaurin caught five passes for 73 yards and a touchdown, and Curtis Samuel caught five passes for 53 yards. Heinicke also has two good backs in Brian Robinson Jr. and Antonio Gibson. As for the defense, it's not some unit full of Pro Bowlers, but the Commanders held the Packers to 0-6 on third down last week!
Here's something to ponder: While I like Ehlinger and I think he has potential, The Indianapolis Star reported that members of the Colts locker room basically all had the same reaction to the move: Shock. Maybe it takes some time for them to settle in. Also, Zach Williams of WNSR Nashville Sports Radio guaranteed me Washington ML hits, and I trust him.
The pick: Commanders +3
Projected score: Commanders 23-21
San Francisco 49ers (-1.5) at Los Angeles Rams
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (Fox, FuboTV)
According to The MMQB, the two teams that were the most serious about trading for star running back Christian McCaffrey were the 49ers and the Rams. The tiebreaker between the two offers given to the Carolina Panthers was reportedly the fact that the Rams did not have a fourth-round pick in this upcoming draft. Sean McVay missed out on a player that maybe could have gotten his team back into contention. McVay just saw what McCaffrey is still capable of, as the former Panther racked up 69 rushing yards and 89 receiving yards vs. L.A. two Sundays ago. Now, the Rams have to prepare for him all over again.
Last time these two teams faced off I made the Rams a best bet. I'm not going to make that mistake again. There is obviously some weird black magic at work when Kyle Shanahan faces the Rams, as the 49ers have won seven straight regular-season games against the Rams -- and have failed to cover just once! If I'm being honest, I don't see the 49ers as a top team, but I think there's a renewed sense of urgency with the addition of McCaffrey -- even if they were defeated handily by the Chiefs just last week. I also love that George Kittle is back on track, as he caught six passes for 98 yards and a touchdown vs. Kansas City. Give me the 49ers.
The pick: 49ers -1.5
Projected score: 49ers 24-20
New York Giants at Seattle Seahawks (-3)
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (Fox, FuboTV)
You have to credit the Giants for the amazing start they have had. They are 5-0 as an underdog this season, and just the third team since 1970 to record five upset wins through seven games of a season. I think their incredible run stops here.
The Seahawks have recorded two straight upset victories, and are the only team in the NFC West with a winning record. Geno Smith is apparently a stud, as he's first in the NFL in completion percentage (74%), fifth in yards per attempt (8.0), tied for fourth in touchdown to interception ratio (11-3) and third in passer rating (107.7). Another player that I absolutely love is rookie running back Kenneth Walker III. He leads the league in rushing yards over the past two weeks with 265. That's the most rushing yards by any player in his first two career starts since Todd Gurley in 2015. He's played in six contests now, and has rushed for at least 88 yards and one touchdown in each of the past three. I think he wins Offensive Rookie of the Year if he can remain healthy.
The Seahawks defense does allow 399.1 yards of total offense per game, which ranks fourth-worst in the NFL, and averages 26.6 points allowed per game, which also ranks fourth-worst in the NFL. However, it's worth mentioning Seattle allows just 17.3 points per game at home.
The Giants are playing their second straight road game and have the bye to look forward to after this game. It just feels like this is the letdown spot for New York.
The pick: Seahawks -3
Projected score: Seahawks 28-20
Other Week 8 picks
Ravens (+2) 28-23 over Buccaneers
Jaguars (-2.5) 21-17 over Broncos
Eagles (-11) 30-17 over Steelers
Patriots (-2.5) 17-13 over Jets
Falcons 24-21 over Panthers (+4)
Cowboys 27-20 over Bears (+9.5)
Vikings (-3.5) 28-24 over Cardinals
Titans (-2.5) 26-21 over Texans
Bills (-11) 31-16 over Packers
Bengals (-3) 27-23 over Browns
