Boy, Week 7 sure was a bloodbath. The sportsbooks certainly cleaned up across the board and we didn't go unscathed whatsoever, going just 3-10 ATS on the slate, which is by far the worst mark of the season. We were cruising at a good clip through the first six weeks, but this was certainly a speed bump (to put it mildly). But it does seem like the books caught all of us sleeping as the rest of the experts here at CBS Sports endured similar pain.
Nothing you can do but tip your cap to the oddsmakers, pull yourself up by your bootstraps, and gear up for another week.
As we look to Week 8, we'll be looking at the Lions to rebound off of a blowout loss to Baltimore last week and the Seahawks to keep rolling at home within my five locks of the week.
2023 record
Regular season
Locks of the Week ATS: 16-19
ATS: 48-55-3
ML: 60-46
All NFL odds via SportsLine consensus odds.
Browns at Seahawks
- Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (FOX, fubo)
This number feels a bit too small for a Seahawks team at home and winners of four of their last five, taking on a Browns team that is banged up on the offensive side of the ball. No matter if it's Deshaun Watson or P.J. Walker, they should have a tough time keeping up with Seattle's offense. While the Seahawks offense has plenty of weapons at Geno Smith's disposal, the X-factor could end up being the Seattle defense that has tallied 18 sacks, allowed 10 points per game, and just 237 total yards in their last three games. Cleveland has also been a rough bet on the road as they are 2-6 ATS away from Cleveland Browns Stadium.
Projected score: Seahawks 28, Browns 20
The pick: Seahawks -3
Raiders at Lions
- Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET (ABC, fubo)
The Lions were embarrassed by the Ravens last week by every measure you can think of. However, this is still a good football team that has been banged up, so getting the extra rest by playing on Monday should help them bounce back. Not only that, but they're playing a Raiders team that is the perfect punching bag to let out those frustrations from last week. Las Vegas is allowing opponents to score on roughly 74% of their red zone trips this season (29th in the NFL) and struggle to get off the field on third down. At home, Jared Goff should be able to march his way down the field against a secondary that is allowing opposing QBs to complete nearly 69% of their passes (25th). Goff is 5-1 SU in his last six starts at Ford Field and has 15 touchdowns to just two interceptions. The Raiders are also 1-5 ATS in their last six games on the road.
Projected score: Lions 28, Raiders 17
The pick: Lions -8
If you want a more analytical approach to your NFL picks, then I highly suggest that you check out the SportsLine Projection Model, which has been on fire this year. Check it out if you want to know which side to bet.
Patriots at Dolphins
- Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
Sunday's upset win over the Bills at home was the highlight of the season for the Patriots and gave those in Foxborough some hope that not everything is burning to the ground. While it was certainly a good moment, I'm not sure if this means the tide has completely turned for Bill Belichick's club. They have historically struggled down in Miami and are facing a Dolphins team that is looking to rebound from their loss to the Eagles in Week 7. Tua Tagovailoa is 5-0 in his career against Belichick and is 15-5 ATS at home in his career. His Dolphins are 3-0 at home where they are averaging 47.7 points and 558 yards per game. They've beaten each team they've played at Hard Rock Stadium by at least 15 points, and I don't believe New England has the firepower to keep up with that offensive attack.
Projected score: Dolphins 30, Patriots 20
The pick: Dolphins -9.5
Saints at Colts
- Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (FOX, fubo)
Indy gave the Browns a run for their money last week, but I'd much rather fade a team that boasts a quarterback who is handing the ball to the opposition numerous times than back them. Over his past two starts, Minshew has given the ball away eight times and now faces a Saints defense that ranks tied for seventh in the league in takeaways per game. New Orleans' offense has struggled in recent weeks, but I'm leaning on Dennis Allen's defense to win this game on the road by continuing Minshew's trend of turning the ball over. Indy is also 1-5 ATS in its last six games as a home favorite.
Projected score: Saints 23, Colts 21
The pick: Saints +1
Ravens at Cardinals
- Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
Baltimore put the NFL on notice with their blowout win over Detroit in Week 7 and continues to look like a viable contender in the AFC. Lamar Jackson put together one of the better individual performances of the season against the Lions and looks like a much more complete quarterback in Todd Monken's offense. Jackson has also owned NFC opponents, owning a 16-1 SU record against them in his career. He'll put that up against a Cardinals team that has lost four straight and seems to be heading in the wrong direction. While this is a big number to cover on the road, Arizona struggles to score in the fourth quarter, totaling just seven points through the first seven weeks during the period. That should eliminate any fear of them crashing through the back door. Baltimore is also 7-2 ATS in its last night games against the NFC.
Projected score: Ravens 28, Cardinals 16
The pick: Ravens -8.5
Rest of the bunch
Buccaneers at Bills
Projected score: Bills 30, Buccaneers 21
The pick: Bills -8.5
Rams at Cowboys
Projected score: Cowboys 28, Rams 20
The pick: Cowboys -6.5
Vikings at Packers
Projected score: Vikings 27, Packers 23
The pick: Vikings -1
Falcons at Titans
Projected score: Falcons 23, Titans 20
The pick: Falcons -2
Jets at Giants
Projected score: Jets 21, Giants 17
The pick: Jets -3
Jaguars at Steelers
Projected score: Jaguars 24, Steelers 21
The pick: Jaguars -2.5
Eagles at Commanders
Projected score: Eagles 27, Commanders 14
The pick: Eagles -6.5
Texans at Panthers
Projected score: Panthers 23, Texans 21
The pick: Panthers +3
Chiefs at Broncos
Projected score: Chiefs 33, Broncos 20
The pick: Chiefs -8
Bengals at 49ers
Projected score: 49ers 27, Bengals 24
The pick: Bengals +5.5
Bears at Chargers
Projected score: Charges 27, Bears 17
The pick: Chargers -8.5
