Do you know how NFL coaches are always talking about taking it one game at a time? Well, I'm taking the same approach to this column. I'm taking it one week at a time, just looking to stack winning weeks on top of each other. I went 2-1 last week to improve to 7-5 on the season for a return of 1.45 units so far.
Maybe that doesn't seem like a lot to you, but when it comes to betting the NFL, anything on the positive side of the ledger puts you ahead of the majority. This week I'm getting us into the grime and the muck. We've got some games on the card that might not be the most enticing to watch, but they are the smartest bets available to us. We're not here to look pretty. We're here to stack those winning weeks.
All NFL odds are via Caesars Sportsbook
Titans at Jaguars: Over 48.5 (-110)
There's a lot of attention on the Jaguars right now, thanks to Urban Meyer and his Saturday out with the fellas last week, and it's overshadowing what was a pretty nice performance from the Jaguars on Thursday against Cincinnati. It was the first time all season that the Jaguars' offense approached something nearing competency. I think this team can carry that performance this weekend against a Titans defense that has allowed 2.41 points per possession this season.
On the other side, Tennessee should be healthier on offense this week after not having A.J. Brown and Julio Jones last week. While the Jags offense looked solid last week, the defense hasn't shown many signs of life, and I think we've got a situation where a couple of bad teams are going to score plenty of points against each other.
Prediction: Titans 27, Jaguars 24
Patriots at Texans: Texans +9 (-110)
It's important to eat your vegetables. Sure, they don't always taste as good as the other options, but they're part of a balanced diet. This week, the Texans are our vegetables. Just hold your nose and shove them down your throat as quickly as possible because as bad as the Texans are, I'm not here to trust a team with Mac Jones at QB as nearly a double-digit favorite on the road.
I thought I was losing my mind Sunday night with the praise Cris Collinsworth was heaping on Jones. Sure, Jones completed 77.5 percent of his passes in the rain against Tampa, but his average pass covered 5.15 air yards. Of the 40 passes Jones threw last week, 24 were either thrown behind the line of scrimmage or fewer than 5 yards away from it. Sure, Jones can dink and dunk the Patriots to a win here, but he won't dink and dunk them to a 10-point win.
Prediction: Patriots 23, Texans 16
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Lions at Vikings: Lions +9 (-110)
The Lions lost to the Bears 24-14 in Chicago last week and are back on the road for another divisional matchup this week. While the final score doesn't show it, the Lions weren't awful against the Bears. From a success-rate standpoint, it was one of their better performances of the season, and a lot like our last pick, I'm not ready to trust the Vikings as nearly double-digit favorites.
The Vikings' offense has not been great. While Minnesota is scoring 23.5 points per game as a team, its offense has scored 21.75 points per game, which ranks 18th in the league. Its average of 1.98 points per possession ranks 21st and is the same as Detroit's. Then there's the Minnesota defense that ranks 16th in the league in success rate. Don't get me wrong, the Vikings are the better team in this matchup and should win, but they're more mediocre than good. I don't trust mediocre teams to cover spreads this large in the NFL.
Prediction: Vikings 28, Lions 21
Record | Units | |
Last Week | 2-1 | +0.9 |
Season | 7-5 | +1.45 |
