NFL Week 4 picks: Why Saints will upset the Cowboys behind Teddy Bridgewater and more best bets

Three picks and a cloud of trust

By Tom Fornelli

Sep 26, 2019 at 8:18 am ET • 2 min read

So far this season I'm a perfect 3-0 when it comes to having 2-1 weeks. Last week I nailed my Bengals +6 pick, as well as the over in Atlanta-Indianapolis, but came up short taking the Redskins at home on "Monday Night Football." It turns out the Redskins are so bad that even Mitch Trubisky can throw three touchdowns against them.

So, no, I will not be betting on the Redskins this week, nor will I likely be doing so in the near future.

Thankfully there are still three other games on the NFL slate that I like in Week 4. So let's try to disrupt the streak of 2-1 weeks with a 3-0 week, shall we?

1. New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills Under 42.5

While I'm not opposed to laying the points with the Patriots in this spot, I'm a bigger fan of making a play on the total. I don't know how good Buffalo is, but its defense is legit. It will give Tom Brady and the Patriots offense problems, and New England's run game will be affected by the loss of fullback James Develin. The Patriots have a terrific defense as well, and if there's anybody in the NFL who I'm sure can find a way to make Josh Allen stick to doing all the things he does poorly, it's Bill Belichick. This should be a low-scoring, ugly affair. And not just because of all the red and blue Zubaz in the seats.

Prediction: Patriots 24, Bills 13

2. Oakland Raiders +7 at Indianapolis Colts

The Raiders were beat up by the Vikings last week, losing 34-14 on the road, and that's contributing to this line. I always like looking for teams coming off blowout losses because they're often undervalued the following week. Well, at least the ones that aren't the Miami Dolphins are sometimes. I think this is one of those situations. The Colts looked better last week at home against the Falcons, but we don't know if T.Y. Hilton will be fully healthy for this game. Even if he does play, the Raiders aren't going to get blown out in this spot. The Colts let them hang around.

Prediction: Colts 27, Raiders 21

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3. New Orleans Saints +2.5 vs. Dallas Cowboys

I don't want to undersell the importance of Drew Brees, as he's one of the greatest quarterbacks to play the game, but I do think some are overreacting to his loss. Drew Brees hasn't been DREW BREES for a couple of years now, and New Orleans' offense had been transitioning to a state where Brees was more of a game manager than focal point lately. So I don't believe the drop from Brees to Teddy Bridgewater is as steep as it would have been a few years ago. This line does, however. Dallas has been terrific so far, but going on the road to play in the Superdome in a prime-time game won't be easy. It's hard to pass up the Saints as home dogs in this spot.

Prediction: Saints 27, Cowboys 24