There was a lot of sloppy football that was played in Week 1 of the 2023 NFL season -- unless your name is either Tyreek Hill or Tua Tagovailoa -- who will both surely be enshrined in Canton one day. All jokes aside, the Miami Dolphins could be legitimate contenders if that roster can stay healthy.
I didn't get off to the hottest start with my ATS picks. I tried to lean into picking some upsets and that did not work out the way I wanted it to. I'm proud for confidently picking the Baltimore Ravens to cover the largest number on the board, happy the Philadelphia Eagles held on for a cover against the New England Patriots and embarrassed I sided with the New York Giants. Here comes Week 2. Bring me that horizon.
Here's a look at what I'm thinking this week. As always, credit to the CBS Sports research team for making me sound smart.
All odds come courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook
Top five picks ATS record: 2-3
Overall ATS record: 7-9
Straight up record: 7-9
2022 Overall ATS record: 135-129-8
2022 Straight up record: 177-92-3
Minnesota Vikings at Philadelphia Eagles (-6)
Thursday, 8:15 p.m. ET (Amazon Prime Video)
I'll bite again. Philly covered for me last week so I'll go back to the Eagles with the number under a touchdown at home in prime time. There's a reason this line may look a bit low to people. Safety Reed Blankenship (ribs), cornerback James Bradberry (concussion) and running back Kenneth Gainwell (ribs) have already been ruled out for the Eagles, while defensive tackle Fletcher Cox (ribs) is questionable. Plus, Nakobe Dean won't be on the field either. However, the Vikings are banged-up, too. Center Garrett Bradbury is out with a back injury, while left tackle Christian Darrisaw (ankle) and edge rusher Marcus Davenport (ankle) are questionable.
The Eagles are 7-2 ATS in their last nine home games vs. the Vikings, while Jalen Hurts is 10-1 SU and 8-2-1 ATS in the last 11 homes games he has started. Philly did not look incredible vs. New England in Week 1, scoring just nine points in the final three quarters after its red-hot start, but A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith can carry this offense against a suspect defense.
I thought the Vikings would be better on defense immediately under Brian Flores, but it's kind of rattling that Baker Mayfield walked into Minnesota and figured out the Vikings' defensive signals by halftime, and used that to score an upset win. Yikes!
The pick: Eagles -6
Projected score: Eagles 30-20
Seattle Seahawks at Detroit Lions (-5)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo)
The Seahawks are 3-0 ATS in their last three meetings with the Lions, but you should know by now this Lions team is different. Detroit is actually 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games, which ranks No. 1 in the NFL in that span. After their upset victory over the Kansas City Chiefs, you know Ford Field is going to be rocking. In fact, it was rocking in the preseason. The Giants even had to use a silent count!
The Seahawks' loss to the Los Angeles Rams was surprising. I thought Seattle's defense was going to be improved, but Puka Nacua and Tutu Atwell both recorded 119 receiving yards apiece last Sunday. I guarantee no one had that on their bingo card. I'm not basing this pick solely off of Seattle's Week 1 performance (it's never smart to do that), but more off of the injury report. Left tackle Charles Cross and right tackle Abraham Lucas are both likely out Sunday, which could potentially spell disaster for Geno Smith. Is there a line for Aidan Hutchinson sacks? Take the Over.
The pick: Lions -5
Projected score: Lions 30-23
Green Bay Packers (-1) at Atlanta Falcons
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo)
I'm not ready to proclaim Jordan Love the next big thing like many of you Packers fans, but I do think Green Bay is better than Atlanta. The Falcons were outgained by the Carolina Panthers in passing yards and rushing yards in Week 1 even though they won by 14 points. Desmond Ridder passed for just 115 yards and one touchdown (to rookie RB Bijan Robinson), as Kyle Pitts and Drake London were again underutilized. The Falcons definitely appear to be better on defense this year, but the Packers are more well-rounded.
Love threw three touchdowns in Chicago this past weekend, and was the only quarterback in Week 1 with a perfect 158.3 passer rating on third/fourth down. The defense did a great job pressuring Justin Fields, and held Chicago's running backs to under 4 yards per rush collectively. I'll take the Packers to win again this week.
The pick: Packers -1
Projected score: Packers 26-20
Sportsline's model is leaning one way on the point total of this game, and it also says one side of the spread cashes in well over 50% of simulations! Check it out here.
Miami Dolphins (-3) at New England Patriots
Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC, fubo)
I'm not going to be predictable and talk about how Tua threw for 466 yards, three touchdowns and one interception against the Los Angeles Chargers, or how Tyreek caught 11 passes for 215 yards and two scores. I'm also not going to talk about how Miami led the NFL in total yards (536), yards per play (8.2) and 25-plus yards plays (6) in Week 1. This pick is just about history.
Mr. Tagovailoa is a remarkable 4-0 SU and ATS in his career vs. Bill Belichick. I'm not saying that the Patriots are pushovers, but with this number, there's no way I'm not going to take it. Also, hopefully Miami incorporates De'Von Achane this week.
The pick: Dolphins -3
Projected score: Dolphins 27-23
New Orleans Saints (-3) at Carolina Panthers
Monday, 7:15 p.m. ET (ESPN, fubo)
I have no problem with how No. 1 overall pick Bryce Young played in his first NFL game. He had a couple of interceptions, but he's a rookie and will continue to improve as the year goes on. Unfortunately, he doesn't have the kind of support/foundation around him that I thought he would. We are just one game through the NFL season and Carolina is dealing with some notable injuries. D.J. Chark has a nagging hamstring injury that kept him out on Sunday, offensive guard Brady Christensen was just ruled out for the remainder of the year, fellow offensive guard Austin Corbett is still out and cornerback Jaycee Horn suffered a "serious" hamstring injury. Plus, Carolina doesn't have the deepest roster in the league.
The Saints offense didn't have an incredible outing against the Tennessee Titans, but this New Orleans defense will make things very tough on Young. The unit picked off Ryan Tannehill three times in Week 1!
The pick: Saints -3
Projected score: Saints 23-13
Other Week 2 picks
Colts (-1) 14-10 over Texans
Chargers 28-27 over Titans (+3)
Chiefs (-3.5) 30-24 over Jaguars
Bills 26-21 over Raiders (+9)
Bengals (-3.5) 26-20 over Ravens
Bears (+2.5) 24-23 over Buccaneers
49ers 30-23 over Rams (+8)
Giants 20-16 over Cardinals (+5.5)
Cowboys 24-16 over Jets (+9)
Broncos 23-20 over Commanders (+3.5)
Browns (-2.5) 27-23 over Steelers
