We are barreling down the final stretch of the 2022 regular season and we may have come off arguably the craziest weekend yet. Week 15 had several jaw-dropping moments that we were on the right side of, particularly within my five locks of the week. New England's botched lateral play not only gave the Raiders the win but allowed us to cover. We also covered with the Jaguars and Texans as each of those games went into overtime. While we didn't clear the number during Minnesota's historic comeback over the Colts, it turned out to be quite the nail-biter.
So, what will Week 16 do as a follow-up act? We're about to find out. Let's dive into this week's collection of picks starting with my five locks of the week.
2022 record
Regular season
Locks of the Week ATS: 36-36-4
ATS: 101-115-8
ML: 138-84-2
All NFL odds via Caesars Sportsbook.
Jaguars at Jets
I don't want to get in way of the freight train that is Trevor Lawrence right now. In fact, I want to jump aboard! The Jaguars quarterback has started to look like the generational talent we saw at Clemson and what he was billed to be as the No. 1 overall pick in 2021. Over his last six games, Lawrence leads the NFL in passer rating (111.2) and has 14 passing touchdowns with just one pick. Jacksonville is also 4-1-1 ATS during this stretch. New York is certainly going to be one of the more difficult defenses Lawrence will face, but he's running too hot to fade in my book. It also doesn't hurt that Doug Pederson has historically done well on "Thursday Night Football," going 6-0 SU as a head coach in his career.
Projected score: Jaguars 23, Jets 20
The pick: Jaguars PK
Bengals at Patriots
The Cincinnati Bengals have been one of the better bets throughout this season. They are an NFL-best 11-3 ATS coming into Week 16 and now face a Patriots team that is in shambles after an embarrassing defeat in the final seconds against Las Vegas. As we saw at that moment, New England is currently not a well-coached football team, which is a remarkable statement considering that Bill Belichick is atop the masthead. It's true nonetheless and stretches beyond that bone-headed lateral play. The Patriots struggle to execute at critical points of the game. For example, their red zone touchdown percentage is a league-worst 37.84%. That inefficiency in such a key area could leave them in the dust against a Cincinnati offense that is fifth in the NFL in DVOA. The Bengals are also one of the best teams in the NFL at slamming the door shut on their opponents, allowing just 3.7 points in the fourth quarter (second-best in the NFL).
Projected score: Bengals 27, Patriots 23
The pick: Bengals -3.5
Lions at Panthers
Detroit was able to keep its playoff hopes alive with a late win over the Jets -- the Lions' sixth victory in seven games. What has been particularly impressive about this streak for Detroit is the play from the defense. Dan Campbell's team is allowing just 19.9 points per game over the past seven games and owns a +9 turnover differential. That has helped the Lions go 7-0 ATS coming into Saturday. Meanwhile, the Panthers have also made some late-season noise as they push for an NFC South title, but have struggled to cover at Bank of America Stadium. In their last 14 home games, Carolina is 4-10 ATS.
Projected score: Lions 24, Panthers 21
The pick: Lions -2.5
Eagles at Cowboys
The line has shot up following the news that Jalen Hurts may not play due to a shoulder injury he suffered last week. While we are still not sure whether or not the MVP candidate will play, we're going to assume it'll be Gardner Minshew under center for Philly as we make this pick. Even with that assumption, we're still going to back the Eagles here with the five points. I consider Minshew to be one of the better backup quarterbacks in the NFL and has an ideal cast -- elite defense, stellar offensive line, and plenty of pass-catching weapons -- around him to keep the Eagles afloat in this game. The Cowboys do apply pressure better than any team in the league, but Minshew has shown he can play well under those circumstances. Since 2019, his 17-4 TD-INT ratio when pressured is the best in the NFL.
It's also worth pointing out that Dak Prescott has been sloppy with the football since he returned from his thumb injury in Week 7 and has a league-high 10 interceptions over that stretch.
This game feels destined to be within a field goal late, which will have us sitting pretty by taking the points with Philly.
Projected score: Cowboys 27, Eagles 24
The pick: Eagles +5
Bills at Bears
Weather could be a factor in this game as it's forecasted to be around 12 degrees during this game with 22 mph winds and gusts up to 38 mph. I think that impacts the Bills offense more than it does the ground-and-pound approach of the Bears, so I'll gladly take 8.5 points in what could be a lower-scoring affair. Buffalo is 3-3-1 ATS as a road favorite this season and are 2-6 ATS in its last eight games overall, despite sitting as the No. 1 seed in the AFC. With Fields emerging as a dynamic threat with both his arm and legs, he should be able to keep Chicago within range of covering throughout the afternoon or sneaking us in the backdoor late.
Projected score: Bills 27, Bears 21
The pick: Bears +8.5
Rest of the bunch
Seahawks at Chiefs
Projected score: Chiefs 30, Seahawks 23
The pick: Seahawks +9.5
Saints at Browns
Projected score: Saints 20, Browns 17
The pick: Saints +2.5
Texans at Titans
Projected score: Titans 24, Texans 20
The pick: Texans +5
Giants at Vikings
Projected score: Vikings 28, Giants 21
The pick: Vikings -3.5
Falcons at Ravens
Projected score: Ravens 24, Falcons 14
The pick: Ravens -7.5
Commanders at 49ers
Projected score: 49ers 27, Commanders 17
The pick: 49ers -7
Raiders at Steelers
Projected score: Steelers 24, Raiders 20
The pick: Steelers -3
Packers at Dolphins
Projected score: Dolphins 27, Packers 21
The pick: Dolphins -4
Broncos at Rams
Projected score: Rams 23, Broncos 21
The pick: Rams +2.5
Buccaneers at Cardinals
Projected score: Buccaneers 24, Cardinals 17
The pick: Buccaneers -6.5
Chargers at Colts
Projected score: Chargers 27, Colts 21
The pick: Chargers -4.5
