Week 15 didn't feel like it was going to end for a second, right? With all the rescheduled games and the Saturday window now opening up, we just went through the football-watching gauntlet of five days worth of games over a six-day stretch. While it may have felt like a slog at times, those who followed my picks over this run received an early Christmas gift.
On the Week 15 slate, we went 11-5 ATS and 13-3 ML. As for our locks of the week, those went 4-1 ATS. It's a perfect time to start heating up with the playoffs around the corner and we'll look to continue that positive trend as we look forward to Week 16.
2021 record
Locks of the Week ATS: 44-27-4
ATS: 109-111-4
ML: 140-83-1
Colts at Cardinals
The Cardinals were embarrassed by the Lions in Week 15 and are losers in two straight. With their backs against the fall and now tied with the Rams for first place in the NFC West, it's make or break for Arizona and I expect them to bounce back on Saturday. Facing Jonathan Taylor and the Colts will not be an easy task, but the Cardinals do rank 9th in the NFL In DVOA against the run this season. If they can limit Taylor, Carson Wentz -- who threw for just 57 yards last week against the Patriots -- likely won't be able to keep up with Kyler Murray.
Projected score: Cardinals 27, Colts 23
The pick: Cardinals -1
Which NFL picks can you make with confidence, and which Super Bowl contender will go down hard? Visit SportsLine now to see which teams win and cover the spread, all from a proven computer model on a 133-96 roll on NFL picks.
Browns at Packers
Cleveland is in a tough spot. They are coming off the heels of feeling the wrath of COVID-19 which moved their Week 15 game from Saturday to Monday and will now have to prepare for Aaron Rodgers and the red-hot Packers on an extremely short week as they play on Saturday. Green Bay is playing as good as any team in the NFL right now and has been a superb team to back all season, owning an 11-3 ATS record (tied for the best in the NFL). When the Packers own the rest advantage, they are 2-0 ATS this season. Meanwhile, Cleveland is under .500 on the year ATS and is 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall.
Projected score: Packers 28, Browns 20
The pick: Packers -7
Jaguars at Jets
New York is dealing with a COVID-19 outbreak, but it is early enough in the week where players and coaches have time to clear the NFL's updated protocols. With that said, the Jets were able to hang in there with the Dolphins last week. They had a lead going into halftime for the first time all season and were even tied at 24 midway through the fourth quarter, but they couldn't pull it together to walk away with the win. They'll now get a much easier opponent in the Jaguars on Sunday, so this presents an opportunity to put together a more compete game. Jacksonville has been abysmal as of late and is averaging just 7.7 points per game over the last three weeks. While the Jets won't be hoisting a Lombardi Trophy anytime soon, you should feel comfortable laying less than a field goal to the worst team in the NFL.
Projected score: Jets 23, Jaguars 17
The pick: Jets -2.5
Lions at Falcons
The Lions have been a bettor's best friend this season. Despite the 2-11-1 record on the season, they are 9-5 ATS, which is tied for the second-best mark in the NFL entering Week 16. They are fresh off a surprisingly dominant win over the Cardinals and now head down to face the Falcons, who are 0-5 ATS at home this season. Detroit has shown us that they'll keep their games close, so I'll gladly pocket six points against an Atlanta squad that is a league-worst -14.8 in point differential at home.
Projected score: Lions 24, Falcons 21
The pick: Lions +6
Bills at Patriots
The Patriots rarely have two poor showings in a row and I don't expect that to be the case on Sunday when they host the Bills in what could be a matchup that effectively determines the AFC East title. While we can't really take anything from that windy game between these two teams a few weeks ago, New England's struggles against Indy last Saturday are correctable. Mac Jones also flashed some of his potential late in that game, which should give the Patriots confidence that the rookie can throw his way to a win. While Buffalo did pull out a win against Carolina, it was still a choppy showing with Josh Allen completing 55.8% of his passes. With this spread sitting under the field goal threshold, I'll go with a New England team that is 5-0 ATS in their last five games as the favorite.
Projected score: Patriots 27, Bills 23
The pick: Patriots -2.5
Rest of the bunch
49ers at Titans
Projected score: 49ers 27, Titans 24
The pick: Titans +3.5
Ravens at Bengals
Projected score: Bengals 31, Ravens 27
The pick: Bengals -2.5
Rams at Vikings
Projected score: Rams 28, Vikings 26
The pick: Vikings +3
Giants at Eagles
Projected score: Eagles 27, Giants 14
The pick: Eagles -10
Buccaneers at Panthers
Projected score: Buccaneers 30, Panthers 17
The pick: Buccaneers -11
Chargers at Texans
Projected score: Chargers 28, Texans 17
The pick: Chargers -9.5
Bears at Seahawks
Projected score: Seattle 24, Bears 17
The pick: Seahawks -6.5
Steelers at Chiefs
Projected score: Chiefs 33, Steelers 21
The pick: Chiefs -9.5
Broncos at Raiders
Projected score: Raiders 24, Broncos 21
The pick: Raiders -1
Washington at Cowboys
Projected score: Cowboys 33, Washington 20
The pick: Cowboys -11
Dolphins at Saints
Projected score: Saints 24, Dolphins 17
The pick: Saints -3
