NFL Week 15 picks: The Broncos, Chargers, Bills, Texans and Bears are best bets

Count on Denver and San Diego stealing surprising wins in Week 15

By Will Brinson

Dec 15, 2016 at 8:42 am ET • 2 min read

The human metronome bounced back in a big way last week, going 4-1 with Arizona as the only loss. So maybe I could advise you to fade these picks, but I'm pretty sure we're going to close out the season hot and hit on 10-plus best bets over the final three weeks.

It starts this week with a couple of home dogs and two heavily favored questionable teams against really terrible football teams. Let's go.

Denver Broncos +3 vs. New England Patriots: The Patriots are a substantially better team than the Broncos overall. But there is a little bit of precedent here with Denver playing well at home against Tom Brady and Co., as the Broncos have won the past three matchups against the Patriots at home outright. The two teams played in the 2013 playoffs during the AFC Championship Game and Denver won 26-16, then played in the 2015 regular season in November and Denver won 30-24 in overtime. They played in the playoffs last season, again the AFC title game, and Denver won 20-18. Everyone is on the Pats and the Broncos defense is still good. Give me the points and a Broncos win.

Buffalo Bills -10 vs. Cleveland Browns: The Browns haven't covered in seven weeks. They're probably due and this number is pretty huge. "Let's back the Bills giving 10 points." Say it out loud. It's terrifying. The Bills have something to play for, though, since Rex Ryan's back is against the wall. LeSean McCoy is going to go nuts in this game and the Bills are going to win by 20 points.

Houston Texans -6 vs. Jacksonville Jaguars: And this game feels even worse. The Texans are quite the terrible squad, especially on offense. Brock Osweiler remains a mess and Houston won't be creative with Lamar Miller. DeAndre Hopkins is on a milk carton. The Jaguars are good on defense, but they can't do anything offensively. Houston will get up early and hang on by more than a touchdown.

San Diego Chargers +3 vs. Oakland Raiders: Like Denver, this is a situation where one team can play at an even level with the other and yet the home team is an underdog. The Chargers have looked like garbage the past few weeks and Philip Rivers is costing this team late in games, but this is the Bolts' last stand. They can beat Oakland at home and at the very least will keep it close.

Chicago Bears +6 vs. Green Bay Packers: Don't love backing Matt Barkley against Aaron Rodgers when the Packers are rolling, but the Bears' defense is playing well and Barkley is better than people think. Chicago has done a nice job keeping games close and covering late or having a shot at it. They'll do the same here -- would obviously prefer them getting a full touchdown.