If you want to know my feelings about the Carolina Panthers as an overall organization, you can read them all right here. But as a team worth investing in from a betting perspective? Let's let Bart Simpson handle that:
How many times can this team NOT COVER? They were absolutely in the game against the Saints, holding the ball, moving down the field to try and get within the number. And then, in wildly unnecessary fashion, they got blown out when Derek Carr threw a couple of short touchdown passes that helped pad his stats.
You can't even COVER against a below .500 division rival starting a quarterback with a rib injury and a shoulder injury coming off his second concussion of the season. Carr had no real reason to start or play in this game other than being terrifyingly insecure of Jameis Winston stealing his job.
He finished the half with 41 passing yards and somehow managed to finish the third quarter with 37 passing yards. And the Saints still won handily and covered handily! That's not a New Orleans thing, that's a Carolina thing. So even though the Panthers probably find a way to cover this week as a home dog against another below .500 division opponent -- one they've seen twice now! -- I am out. Is Week 15 embarrassingly late to get off this derailed train? You bet it is but better late than never!
Onto this week's best bets coming off a .500 effort last week.
Browns (-3) vs. Bears
Yes, we are backing Joe Flacco as a home favorite in Week 15 the year of our Lord 2023. The Bears future appears bright suddenly, but it feels a little bit like Chicago in the preseason, when everyone decided the Bears were in great shape and about to win a ton of games. Chicago's recent success has come largely on defense -- and it's been impressive -- but also with Justin Fields under center. The combination's led to a lot of discussion about what the Bears will do with the No. 1 pick they'll get from the Panthers. The next month for Fields will partially determine that, as will the prospects available, and I think Fields will close pretty strong. But not against this Browns defense, which has done an outstanding job all season and should pressure Fields/limit D.J. Moore.
Patriots/Chiefs under 37.5
Taking a number this low with Patrick Mahomes involved seems pretty insane! But we already backed Joe Flacco, so why not just keep getting weirder and weirder. The Patriots scored a ton of points against the Steelers on Thursday night and have had 10 days to try and get ready for Andy Reid's team, but this offense didn't take some magical leap forward out of nowhere. The Chiefs defense is still too good. And with Isiah Pacheco likely missing for this one, we could see Bill Belichick double team Travis Kelce and really limit the Kansas City offense, daring the wide receivers to beat him. They've only really beaten themselves this year, so we could see a very low-scoring game here. Rain and wind in the forecast only help limit the points.
Bills (-1.5) vs. Cowboys
The Bills made this list last week, largely for the same reasons they're on the list this week: the bye week drama galvanized Buffalo's locker room and liberated the team with its offensive gameplan. Josh Allen has a legitimate shot to go nuclear for a month and get involved in the MVP race and the Bills, despite everything going wrong this season, could actually win the division. The Dolphins are battling a huge list of injuries and have a tough schedule; if the Bills win their next three and the Dolphins lose two out of three, Week 18 would be a de facto division title game and potentially even a win-and-in playoff battle. I don't think Buffalo is looking ahead, though. It know it's in "playoff mode" right now and need to win every single game the rest of the way. Unleashing Allen, which it appears the Bills done, is a big step towards doing that.
Commanders/Rams over 50.5
Shootout city coming in Los Angeles. The Rams offense is starting to really get rolling with Kyren Williams back. Matthew Stafford looks like his best self right now and is low-key having an outstanding season. Sean McVay might deserve some serious love for COY based on what he's done with this roster. Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua should have a field day against a terrible Commanders defense and Washington will proceed to just keep dropping Sam Howell back over and over again in a comeback attempt. They should score enough to keep Stafford throwing and push this over the total.
Titans (-2.5) vs. Texans
We'd prefer the Titans to be underdogs here because Mike Vrabel as a home dog is a great bet. But it's looking more and more like rookie quarterback sensation C.J. Stroud is unlikely to play for the Texans in this spot, which would mean Davis Mills starting for Houston. That's not great for the Texans, especially with Tank Dell out and Nico Collins/Robert Woods/Dalton Schultz and Noah Brown all on the injury report this week. Tennessee isn't some juggernaut but Derrick Henry late in the year against division rivals is a problem for defenses, and Will Levis/DeAndre Hopkins are kind of slanging it around lately. I like the Titans to pick up another win this week and continue to quell the concerns with coaching in Nashville.
Ravens/Jaguars over 42.5
This number feels way too low considering what we last saw in prime time from the Jaguars, when they squared off against the Bengals in Jacksonville. Yes, Trevor Lawrence is injured and the Ravens defense can be hyper aggressive, but the Jaguars should be able to score 17-20 points and do their half here. I don't think Baltimore will struggle to score at all -- we saw Lamar Jackson start using his legs more often last week than he had all season, and he could uncork a high-end Lamar performance against a really bad Jags defense. Losing Mark Andrews is a really tough blow, but Odell Beckham/Zay Flowers may be capable of filling the deep role, and Isaiah Likely has enough upside for this offense not to miss a beat. I think we get Keaton Mitchell busting off a long run, too. The Jags at home coming through the backdoor is the only thing keeping me off the Ravens as well.
