Ladies and gentlemen, we're on a heater. Coming out of the Thanksgiving holiday, I've logged back-to-back weeks with double-digit ATS wins. Since Week 11, I've gone 23-6-1 ATS, which includes a 12-3-1 ATS run last week, which was predominantly owned by the favorites pulling through. While that's a superb run, there's still room for improvement, particularly with my locks of the week, which went just 2-3-1 in Week 12.
I'll look to keep the hot streak going while zeroing in my five locks as we all pivot to a Week 13 slate where I've put a handful of underdogs in the crosshairs as potential covers. As always, let's kick things off with my five locks of the week.
2023 record
Regular season
Locks of the Week ATS: 31-29-1
ATS: 96-77-7
ML: 115-65
All NFL odds via SportsLine consensus odds.
Seahawks at Cowboys
- Thursday, 8:15 p.m. ET (Prime Video)
As much as this slate will be dominated by the matchup between the 49ers and Eagles, this other game between an NFC West and NFC East team is fascinating as well. The Thursday opener is a chance for Dallas to continue to flex as the best home team in the league. The Cowboys are 5-0 ATS at home this season and have an average margin of victory of 29 points! Meanwhile, Seattle -- losers in three of its last four -- needs a win here to help stay in the playoff picture.
Unfortunately for Pete Carroll's team, this smells like another loss. The offense -- specifically Geno Smith -- has regressed from 2022 and will now have to face a lethal Dallas defense that leads the league in pressure rate and is second in sack rate. The Seahawks are allowed pressure at the eighth-highest rate this season, so this could be a game where Smith is under siege on almost every dropback. Meanwhile, Dak Prescott completion percentage (70%) and TD-INT ratio (23-6) rank No. 2 in the league this year, and will square up against a Seattle defense that is allowing 27.8 points per game in November (30th in the NFL). Another Dallas blowout incoming.
Projected score: Cowboys 30, Seahawks 17
The pick: Cowboys -9
Broncos at Texans
- Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
Who had the Denver Broncos being the hot team of the second half of the season on their bingo card?! Sean Payton's team has ripped off five straight wins and has gone over .500 for the first time this season after taking down the Browns. The key to the turnaround has been the play from their defense, which has allowed just 16 points per game since Week 7 (tied for second best in the NFL). They are also a top-10 team at pressuring the quarterback over this stretch, which is where they could look to exploit the Texans, who just lost left guard Tytus Howard for the year due to a knee injury. Each game for these two teams this season seems to come down to the wire, so I'll gladly take the field goal and the hook on Sunday, especially with C.J. Stroud being 0-4 ATS in his career as a favorite.
Projected score: Broncos 24, Texans 21
The pick: Broncos +3.5
Dolphins at Commanders
- Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo)
After a week that was dominated by favorites, some dogs are bound to pull through and this game between the Dolphins and Commanders feels like one that could surprise some folks. While I'm not predicting the full-blown upset, I do think Washington covers. The Commanders are playing in their first game since firing DC Jack Del Rio and Ron Rivera is set to take over the defensive play-calling duties. That should give the unit a small boost, but we're more looking at the Commanders offense to keep us within the number. Sam Howell has shown flashes this season and leads the NFL in completions, attempts and passing yards. They have the skill position players capable of putting up points, and they won't have to deal with pass rusher Jaelan Phillips throwing Howell to the turf after he suffered an Achilles injury last week. The Commanders are also 9-3-2 ATS in its last 14 games as an underdog and 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven where they are a two-possession underdog.
Projected score: Dolphins 30, Commanders 21
The pick: Commanders +9.5
Browns at Rams
- Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo)
Don't look now but the Rams are starting to get into a bit of a groove. They've won two straight and are coming off scoring a season-best 37 points against Arizona. Matthew Stafford has looked sharp over that stretch and the offense just welcomed back Kyren Williams, who adds an explosive figure in their backfield. Simply put, the arrow is pointing up in Los Angeles. Meanwhile, the same can't be said for Cleveland, despite its 7-4 record. Dorian Thompson-Robinson left last week's game with a concussion, further sending the QB position into question. Also, Myles Garrett was spotted in a sling after last week's loss to Denver, signaling that he isn't 100% for this game either. The Browns defense is allowing 29.6 points per game on the road this season, which is a bad trend against a suddenly hot Rams unit.
Projected score: Rams 27, Browns 17
The pick: Rams -3.5
Falcons at Jets
- Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo)
How can you trust the Jets right now? They have no semblance of an offense no matter if it's Zach Wilson or Tim Boyle under center. Even when the defense forces multiple turnovers (including a pick-six), this offense is giving the ball right back and helping the opposition put points on the board. They can't move the ball on third down (24%) and can't score in the red zone (28%). Meanwhile, the Falcons are finally letting Bijan Robinson cook as he totaled 123 scrimmage yards last week in the win over the Saints. Desmond Ridder was solid coming off the bye, which gives Atlanta the advantage at quarterback in this head-to-head. With this under a field goal, the Falcons pull this out, but it might not be the prettiest game you've ever seen.
Projected score: Falcons 20, Jets 16
The pick: Falcons -2.5
Rest of the bunch
Colts at Titans
Projected score: Colts 23, Titans 20
The pick: Colts -2
Chargers at Patriots
Projected score: Chargers 24, Patriots 16
The pick: Chargers -6
Lions at Saints
Projected score: Lions 27, Saints 20
The pick: Lions -4
Cardinals at Steelers
Projected score: Steelers 23, Cardinals 21
The pick: Cardinals +5.5
Panthers at Buccaneers
Projected score: Buccaneers 26, Panthers 17
The pick: Buccaneers -5.5
49ers at Eagles
Projected score: 49ers 24, Eagles 21
The pick: 49ers -2.5
Chiefs at Packers
Projected score: Chiefs 27, Packers 23
The pick: Packers +6.5
Bengals at Jaguars
Projected score: Jaguars 24, Bengals 14
The pick: Jaguars -8.5
