Eleven weeks of football are nearly in the books and we've now reached the Thanksgiving mile marker on the schedule. We have three games on deck for the Thursday holiday and each matchup has some fascinating storylines. Buffalo looks to claw its way back atop the AFC playoff picture as they visit a Lions team that is fresh off a win over the Giants. Then New York gets us rolling in the second contest of the day when they go to Dallas to face a surging Cowboys team. They are coming off a dominating win over the Vikings, who'll play host to the Patriots in the triple-header finale.
Not a bad Thanksgiving lineup if you ask us!
As we wait for Week 11 to officially come to a close with the Niners and Cardinals squaring off on Monday night, let's take our first glimpse of all these Week 12 matchups and get our impression of the opening lines for these games to see if there is anything they can tell us about who the oddsmakers see coming out on top.
Week 12 early odds
(All lines from Caesars Sportsbook, all games on Sunday unless noted)
Bills (7-3) at Lions (4-6), Thursday
Opening line: Bills -10
This number has since moved down a half-point, but Buffalo is still a lofty road favorite. This will actually be the second consecutive week that the Bills have played at Ford Field as a blizzard forced the NFL to relocate their Week 11 matchup against Cleveland to Detroit. In that game, the Bills were able to cover the 8-point spread with a 31-23 victory. As for the Lions, they rushed for four touchdowns en route to an upset win over the Giants at MetLife. Coming into this week, Buffalo is 2-2-1 ATS on the road, but has beaten up on bad teams. Against clubs with a losing record, the Bills are 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight games. Detroit is 7-2 ATS in its last nine home games.
Giants (7-3) at Cowboys (7-3), Thursday
Opening line: Cowboys -7
This line has bumped up a point and crossed the key touchdown threshold to Cowboys -8. Dallas had its most dominating win in quite some time on Sunday as they shellacked the Vikings 40-3. The defense dominated the line of scrimmage and was able to record seven sacks and hit Kirk Cousins a total of 13 times. Tony Pollard also put up 189 yards from scrimmage to go along with two touchdowns. As for the Giants, they were unable to contain Detroit's running game as they allowed 160 yards and four touchdowns on the ground in a 31-18 loss. After being sharp most of the season, Daniel Jones had two uncharacteristic interceptions in the loss. This will be the second time these teams have gone head-to-head this season with Dallas taking the first game back in Week 3 when Cooper Rush was filling in for the injured Dak Prescott. The Cowboys are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 meetings against New York, which includes a 5-1 ATS record in Dallas.
Patriots (6-4) at Vikings (8-2), Thursday
Opening line: Vikings -3.5
Minnesota is now a 3-point favorite as they're set to host New England in the Thanksgiving finale. Both of these offenses struggled in Week 11 and managed just three points apiece. However, a late punt return for a touchdown did give the Patriots the 10-3 win over the Jets to move them to 6-4 on the season. One of the big issues that both clubs will face in this matchup comes along the offensive line. The Patriots saw starting center David Andrews and starting tackle Isaiah Wynn both leave due to injury and they could miss this game. Meanwhile, left tackle Christian Darrisaw has already been ruled out by the Vikings due to a concussion. New England is 3-1-1 ATS on the road this season, while Minnesota is 2-3 ATS at home.
Broncos (3-7) at Panthers (3-8)
Opening line: Broncos -2.5
This line is unchanged as Denver holds as a 2.5-point road favorite over Carolina. Both clubs were on the losing end of things in Week 11 as the Panthers mustered just three points in a loss to Baltimore, but they were able to cover the double-digit spread. Meanwhile, the Broncos allowed the Raiders to march 71 yards down the field to kick a game-tying field goal to force overtime. In the extra period, the Denver defense allowed the game-winning touchdown after just three plays. The Broncos are 3-7 ATS this season, which is tied for the second-worst mark in the NFL. Carolina is 5-6 ATS, which includes a 3-3 ATS record at home. Denver is 2-6 ATS in their last eight road games.
Buccaneers (5-5) at Browns (3-7)
Opening line: Buccaneers -3
Tampa Bay comes out of the bye as a 3-point road favorite over the Browns. The Bucs have looked a little more like themselves in the previous two games before the break and edged out the Seahawks in a 21-16 win in Germany back in Week 10. As for the Browns, they came out of the gate strong against Buffalo and got out to a 10-3 lead, but ultimately couldn't keep Josh Allen and the Bills offense down for an entire four quarters as they gave up 31 points on the afternoon and failed to stay inside the number. Cleveland is 4-6 ATS on the season but has failed to cover in five of its last seven games. They are also 3-7 ATS in their last 10 home games. That said, the Bucs haven't been the most profitable team to bet on this season and are 1-6-1 ATS in their last eight games.
Ravens (7-3) at Jaguars (3-7)
Opening line: Ravens -4
Baltimore didn't put together its most impressive outing of the season but was still able to walk away with a win over the Panthers on Sunday. After being knotted at 3 with Carolina for the bulk of the game, the Ravens needed a 10-point fourth quarter to pull away. The lone touchdown of the afternoon -- a rush by Lamar Jackson -- was sparked by a fumble recovered by Baltimore's defense. Despite the win, the Ravens were unable to cover and moved to 4-5-1 ATS on the year. However, all four of Baltimore's ATS wins this season have come on the road, which puts them in a favorable spot here as they take on a Jaguars team that was on the bye in Week 11. Jacksonville is 2-2 ATS at home this season and is 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.
Texans (1-8-1) at Dolphins (7-3)
Opening line: Dolphins -9.5
This line has since moved to Dolphins -11.5 as Miami looks to continue its playoff push out of the bye. They'll do so against a Texans team that was handled pretty decisively by the Commanders, who rushed for 153 yards and forced two interceptions by Davis Mills. The most jarring aspect of this loss for Houston, however, was their inability to get anything going on the ground. As a team, they rushed for just 21 yards in the loss. Rookie Dameon Pierce carried the ball 10 times for just eight yards. They'll need to fix that offense quickly if they want any chance of keeping up with this high-powered Dolphins unit. Miami is 8-3 in its last 11 home games while Houston has failed to cover in four of its last five games coming into Week 12.
Bears (3-8) at Jets (6-4)
Opening line: Jets -3.5
New York is now a 4-point favorite over the Bears. Part of the reason why this line could be trending more favorably to New York is the status of Justin Fields. He suffered an apparent left shoulder injury that required X-rays after the game. It's unclear if this will impact his status for Week 12, but it's at least encouraging that it's his non-throwing shoulder. Outside of that, New York hasn't given bettors much confidence, particularly after the last second-loss to the Patriots where the offense mustered just three points. Despite sitting with a 6-4 ATS record overall this season, the Jets are under .500 ATS at home. As for the Bears, they are 2-4 ATS on the road.
Bengals (6-4) at Titans (7-3)
Opening line: Bengals -2
Cincinnati is now only laying 1.5-points to the Titans, but it's still surprising to see Tennessee as a home dog after what they've done as of late. Mike Vrabel's club is currently on an 8-game cover streak, which includes a 10-point victory over the Packers last Thursday. That record gives them the best ATS mark in the entire NFL this season, but it is worth pointing out that the Bengals are tied for the second-best ATS record at 7-3. Cincy is also 9-2 in its last 11 road games, which includes a cover against the Steelers in Pittsburgh on Sunday.
Falcons (5-6) at Commanders (6-5)
Opening line: Commanders -3
Each of these NFC clubs walked out of Week 11 with a win as the Falcons were able to fend off the Bears and the Commanders handled the Texans. Both offenses leaned on the run game to lead them to victory and could follow a similar approach in this matchup. The big storyline for this game is whether or not the Commanders will activate Chase Young onto the 53-man roster this week to play against Atlanta or if he'll revert to season-ending IR. Even in his absence, Washington has been a solid bet as of late, going on a 5-0-1 ATS run in its last six games. Meanwhile, Atlanta may have the overall better ATS record for the season but is 1-4 ATS in its last five games.
Chargers (5-5) at Cardinals (4-6)
Opening line: Chargers -2.5
This line has now crossed the critical hurdle to Chargers -3, but it wouldn't be surprising to see this move again after Arizona's matchup with the 49ers on Monday night. L.A. nearly pulled off the upset against the Chiefs on Sunday, but simply gave Patrick Mahomes too much time and the Chiefs quarterback marched down the field to score the game-winning touchdown. The good news for the Chargers is that Kennan Allen did look solid in his first game back from a hamstring injury. However, fellow receiver Mike Williams, who was also making his return in Week 11, left after injuring his ankle again. L.A. is 5-1 ATS in its last six games following a straight-up loss and is a league-best 5-0 ATS on the road this season.
Raiders (3-7) at Seahawks (6-4)
Opening line: Seahawks -3
Seattle has since moved to a 4-point favorite over the Raiders, who pulled off an overtime win over the Broncos. That was just Las Vegas' second road cover of the season and it will now try to make it three when it heads to Seattle. The Seahawks were on the bye in Week 11. Since Pete Carroll arrived in Seattle, the club is 7-6-1 ATS off the bye. This season, they are 6-4 ATS, which includes a 3-1 ATS record at home.
Rams (3-7) at Chiefs (8-2)
Opening line: Chiefs -11
Kansas City is now a full two-touchdown favorite over the defending Super Bowl champs, laying 14 points at Arrowhead next Sunday. The Chiefs look every bit the part of a Super Bowl favorite and Patrick Mahomes looks every bit the part of the MVP favorite, especially after pulling out a last-second road win over the Chargers on Sunday. Meanwhile, the Rams are off to a 3-7 SU start to the season and are a league-worst 2-7-1 ATS. However, it is worth pointing out that the Chiefs are just 1-4 ATS at Arrowhead this season.
Saints (4-7) at 49ers (5-4)
Opening line: 49ers -8.5
There likely will be some movement with this line following San Francisco's matchup with the Cardinals on Monday night. After a home win over the Rams on Sunday, New Orleans will look to carry that momentum on the road. So far this season, the Saints have been the only team in the NFL unable to cover a game on the road, owning an 0-4 ATS record. They'll try to buck that trend against a Niners team that is 6-2 ATS in its last eight home games.
Packers (4-7) at Eagles (9-1)
Opening line: Eagles -6.5
Philadelphia barely was able to beat the Colts in Indianapolis on Sunday and required a 14-point fourth quarter to get the win. Despite the victory, the Eagles were unable to cover, bringing them to 5-5 ATS on the year. However, they have been a much better bet at home this season than on the road as they are 4-1 ATS at Lincoln Financial Field entering Week 12. As for the Packers, they've started to find some success on offense over the last few weeks, but are still a risky bet, especially with this line still sitting below the touchdown threshold. On the road, Green Bay is 2-3 ATS this season.
Steelers (3-7) at Colts (4-6-1), Monday
Opening line: Colts -3
Indy is now just a 2.5-point favorite over the Steelers. Jeff Saturday is 2-0 ATS to begin his coaching tenure with the Colts and will now take that record into Monday Night Football against a Steelers team that is 3-7 ATS in their last 10 road games. Pittsburgh was unable to cover at home against the Bengals on Sunday, but the offense was able to see a resurgence from running back Najee Harris, who scored two touchdowns. Jonathan Taylor has also come on for Indy, so this matchup may be headlined by these two talented backs.
