What a wild Week 11. Among a long, long list of goings on were the final undefeated team losing -- pop the champagne, 1972 Dolphins! -- another blocked kick on the final play of the game, a scorigami, one team's biggest win ever and another team nearly pulling off its biggest comeback ever, only to be denied cruelly once again.
Got it? Good. Here are five things we liked and five things we didn't in Week 11.
Five things we liked
1. Bills give Josh Allen a chance, and he delivers
How many times have NFL teams -- much less the Bills alone -- watched helplessly as Patrick Mahomes ripped their hearts out late? Sunday, Buffalo and Josh Allen didn't give him the chance, with Allen pulling off what Jim Nantz called "the play of the year."
JOSH. ALLEN. GREATNESS.
— NFL (@NFL) November 18, 2024
📺: #KCvsBUF on CBS/Paramount+
📱: https://t.co/waVpO8ZBqG pic.twitter.com/3HyIoDCaAC
Here's the thing: The Chiefs actually do a good job on this play ... and it doesn't matter, because Allen is just that good. He does things quarterbacks aren't supposed to be able to do. With the game potentially on the line, Sean McDermott put things in the hand of his best player, and maybe the best player in the NFL at the moment.
Mahomes has 26 game-winning drives since entering the NFL, including playoffs. That's most in the NFL. The Bills have been on the wrong end of two of them. They weren't about to let it happen again.
2. Justin Herbert's rocket launcher of an arm
When it comes to ridiculous physical specimens at quarterback, Allen leads the way. But Justin Herbert isn't far behind. He's gigantic (6-foot-6, 236 pounds), he can run (65 yards on the ground Sunday), and he has an absolute laser of an arm. It's no coincidence that as the Chargers surge, that big arm is shining.
That was clear and obvious in Sunday night's triumph over the Bengals, which included these rips to Ladd McConkey on the game-winning drive.
ice in their veins pic.twitter.com/BA8YcaFxWT
— Los Angeles Chargers (@chargers) November 18, 2024
Both of the throws to McConkey on that drive were outstanding, but that second one is absolutely bonkers. Right as he's about to get plastered, Herbert throws it on the money. And while that play was my favorite of the night, this one was a close second.
JUSTIN HERBERT.
— NFL (@NFL) November 18, 2024
DIME, SEALED, DELIVERED.
📺: #CINvsLAC on NBC/Peacock
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus pic.twitter.com/S8bDv726FX
The mobility, the arm strength, the accuracy, the perfect trajectory. It's all *chef's kiss.* On throws outside the numbers Sunday, Herbert went 12-for-18 for 226 yards and two touchdowns. The 226 yards were the second-most in a game in his career and the sixth-most by any quarterback in a game this season.
These big-boy, I'm-better-than-you throws are becoming more commonplace. During their four-game winning streak, the Chargers have put more on Herbert's shoulders, dropping back on 57% of plays, compared to 52% in the first six games. But it's not just that they're dropping back more. Herbert is letting it fly, too.
Justin Herbert in 2024 | First 6 games | Last 4 games |
Air Yards Per Attempt | 7.9 | 9.7 |
Completions of 20+ Yards | 15 | 20 |
Expected Points Added per Dropback | 0.00 | 0.13 |
Herbert is a Bugatti engine who was stuck in a 1990s Honda Civic early this season. Now, he's being unleashed, and combined with his long-standing penchant for avoiding bad plays (one interception all season), the Chargers are seeing awe-inspiring plays over and over.
3. Saquon Barkley, the ultimate closer
Throwing it back to Thursday, the Eagles are finding many ways to win, and a lot of them revolve around Saquon Barkley. Against the Commanders, he had 198 yards from scrimmage, with 76 yards rushing and both of his touchdowns in the fourth quarter alone.
It's the second time this season he's had at least 50 yards rushing and two touchdowns in the fourth quarter. Only one other player -- Taysom Hill -- has done it even once.
Like this if you love Saquon Barkley.
— Philadelphia Eagles (@Eagles) November 15, 2024
RT this if you love Saquon Barkley.
Reply that you love Saquon Barkley.@saquon | #FlyEaglesFly pic.twitter.com/e4TKKo3rSN
SAQUON AGAIN! The @Eagles pulling away on TNF.#WASvsPHI on Prime Video
— NFL (@NFL) November 15, 2024
Also streaming on #NFLPlus pic.twitter.com/pnyd9XtzBk
Barkley, plus the Eagles' bulldozer offensive line, has been a match made in heaven. From 2018-23 with the Giants, Barkley had 1.35 yards per rush before contact. This season, that has nearly doubled, at 2.62 -- third in the NFL behind Lamar Jackson and Jahmyr Gibbs.
But if you think you can just stick anyone behind this line, consider this: Barkley is second in the NFL in yards rushing over expected, only behind Derrick Henry. Last year, D'Andre Swift, despite career-best surface numbers in Philadelphia, had -64 yards over expected. Barkley (and Henry) are proving the value of the elite running back, especially in the right scenario, and Barkley's latest feats are truly remarkable.
4. Odafe Oweh is a silver lining
There were a lot of things to not like about the Ravens' 18-16 loss to the Steelers. Two Justin Tucker misses, three turnovers, 12 penalties, a blown two-point conversion attempt, the general lack of composure ... the list goes on.
Odafe Oweh was by far the biggest positive development, with a career high-tying 2.5 sacks. Oweh has always had absurd speed for an edge rusher, but the refinement was on display, too.
.@Ravens @steelers @DafeOweh is getting better...working everyday and putting in the work with Pass Rush Specialist Coach; Chuck Smith. Nothing like seeing the work pay off in the game #BaldysBreakdowns pic.twitter.com/q122p8qlXp
— Brian Baldinger (@BaldyNFL) November 18, 2024
The Ravens really need this. They rank 21st in pressure rate after ranking eighth last year, and that issue has compounded several mistakes on the back end of things. Baltimore has just one player in the top 50 in pressure rate this season (Kyle Van Noy), but Oweh's 21.7% pressure rate was his best this season.
If Oweh can sustain this, things could open up for Nnamdi Madubuike on the inside, and Baltimore's improved defensive performance from Sunday could be a sign of things to come.
5. Payton Wilson's incredible interception
I like to reserve this spot as a one-off for my favorite play of the week, and there were plenty of nominees. Allen and Herbert were certainly up there, and normally, this spot goes to a quarterback making an incredible play. After all, they're the most important players on the field.
But this week, Payton Wilson gets the nod for this absurd interception.
PAYTON WILSON RIPS IT AWAY. WILD @STEELERS INT.
— NFL (@NFL) November 17, 2024
📺: #BALvsPIT on CBS/Paramount+
📱: https://t.co/waVpO8ZBqG pic.twitter.com/lisvTk1lt7
When Lamar Jackson threw this ball, Justice Hill had a step on Wilson. When Hill went up for the slightly underthrown ball, it looked like it would still be a big gain, or an incompletion at worst. Never in a million years did this look like a pick ... until it was.
The one and only @genesteratore breaks down an INCREDIBLE play by Payton Wilson pic.twitter.com/VfkLLkzgzk
— NFL on CBS 🏈 (@NFLonCBS) November 17, 2024
Wilson won ACC Defensive Player of the Year, the Chuck Bednarik Award and the Butkus Award last year at NC State and ran a 4.44 40-yard dash at the NFL combine, but he slipped all the way to the 98th pick in part due to injury concerns. He has shown that was a mistake by other NFL teams, and his play alongside Patrick Queen -- the former Raven had 10 tackles, one tackle for loss, one forced fumble and one fumble recovery -- anchored a really impressive performance against arguably the league's best offense.
Five things we didn't like
1. Matt Eberflus' end-of-game management ... again
On a day that saw Caleb Williams play terrific football in his first game after Shane Waldron's firing, the Bears still found a way to lose. Williams made several heroic plays to drive Chicago to the Packers' 30 yard line with 35 seconds left. Now, keep in mind, Cairo Santos is a very good kicker, but he doesn't have the world's hugest leg. There are no gimmies kicking at Solider Field, either.
After the Packers called their final timeout, the Bears ran one play -- a 2-yard Roschon Johnson run -- and wound the clock all the way down to three seconds. Then this happened.
WHAT A WAY TO WIN. @PACKERS SURVIVE.#GBvsCHI pic.twitter.com/wqRg23FhdN
— NFL (@NFL) November 17, 2024
After the game, multiple Packers said they knew Santos tended to kick a low ball, and Matt LaFleur even said special teams coach Rich Bisaccia called that Green Bay would get a block. Do the Packers know the Bears better than Bears coach Matt Eberflus?
I don't mean to twist the knife any more, Bears fans. I really don't. But this is the sort of thing that has plagued Chicago and its various disappointing coaches for a while.
Marc Trestman, Matt Nagy and Matt Eberflus all sound eerily similar in these press conferences after similar play calls😳 pic.twitter.com/lNPNg9OXN1
— CHGO Sports (@CHGO_Sports) November 18, 2024
Eberflus can use that explanation, sure, but here are four factors that don't add up:
- The Bears had exactly one run for negative yards all game. In fact, on the play prior to the block, against a loaded box, Johnson gained 2 yards. Why not try for 2 more? They all count!
- Why not try to get Williams on the move if the loaded box is so scary? Williams ran nine times for 70 yards (a huge reason he would have been in the "like" part of this column had the Bears won) and even had 21 yards rushing on four designed runs.
- Or throw the ball! It was second down, your quarterback was on fire, and even if it was incomplete, you could run on third down to get the clock going again before kicking.
- Again, every yard matters. Santos has made 86% of his career kicks from 40-45 yards. He has made 67% of his kicks from 45-50 yards.
The Bears have lost four straight and two in walk-off fashion. You'll remember the other -- a poorly defended Hail Mary against the Commanders -- well. On one hand, I get Eberflus being worried about his mistake-prone offense and his rookie quarterback. Coaches often get too little credit for wins and too much credit for losses.
But given all the factors above, there needed to be more aggression. As the saying goes, "Scared money don't make no money."
2. Xavier Worthy and the sideline
For the second time in three games, Xavier Worthy missed out on a wide-open opportunity for a big play down the sideline.
The Mahomes to Worthy deep ball they weren’t able to connect on. #Chiefs #ChiefsKingdom pic.twitter.com/UMOjZq9bUF
— Nick Jacobs (@Jacobs71) November 18, 2024
Xavier Worthy's lack of awareness to the sideline here takes 7 off the board...Chiefs would go on to punt after a sack.
— DMac Wake (@DMacWake316) November 5, 2024
Nice play design using Mecole's speed to hold the Tampa 2 seam runner and safety to field side is held by Mahomes to open the sideline to Worthy. pic.twitter.com/DICUZcVFZR
That first one, you can argue, is Mahomes' fault. He led Worthy wider than he needed to, but Worthy really stretched out when he needed a toe drag. The second clip is definitely on Worthy. For all of the record-breaking speed, Worthy has reeled in just three of 12 targets thrown at least 20 yards downfield. That's tied for 33rd among 41 players with at least 10 such targets.
Worthy has been explosive and really fun with the ball in his hands, and he has shown the ability win deep. He and Mahomes have been close multiple times, but it just isn't quite coming together yet.
3. Another Cowboys fake punt
Really? Again?
Texans snuff out the fake punt!
— NFL (@NFL) November 19, 2024
📺: #HOUvsDAL on ESPN/ABC
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus pic.twitter.com/gSgeNXYCfP
This marks three straight weeks that "fake punts" make the list. In Week 10, the Steelers actually had the perfect design, but James Pierre dropped the ball. In Week 9, the Cowboys ran a fake punt that was easily stopped, much like the one above.
The Cowboys are desperate for any sort of spark, but this is just not it.
Across the NFL, teams have converted one of seven fake punt/fake field goal passes for first downs this season. It's on pace to be the worst rate on record (since 2000). Maybe ... I don't know ... stop trying them?
4. Everything about the Falcons defense
The Falcons' 38-6 loss to the Broncos was a disaster on both sides of the ball. Give Denver -- especially Sean Payton, Bo Nix, the entire defense and coordinator Vance Joseph -- a ton of credit. This is a really solid team with an improving quarterback.
But my goodness was this abysmal from Atlanta's defense. The offense was bad, but at least it's been pretty good this season. The defense was unsightly.
Nix was pressured on just six of his 35 dropbacks. He was sacked once, and that was only because he tripped over an offensive lineman. Overall, the Broncos had a 55% success rate, their highest in a game since 2021 and their third-highest in a game since Peyton Manning retired. Their 0.31 expected points added per play was their highest in nearly a decade.
Nix is plenty accurate and, when given time and space, quite efficient throwing and running. The Falcons were more than happy to oblige. Using NFL Next Gen Stats' "Average Separation from QB" metric -- the distance between the pass rusher and the quarterback when the ball is released or the quarterback is sacked -- the Falcons' "closest" average pass rusher was Arnold Ebiketie at 4.96 yards. For reference, the league average is 4.57, and the Broncos had four different players below that. The Falcons weren't just unable to get to Nix. They were unable to get remotely close to him.
This season, Atlanta is last in sacks and sack rate and second to last in pressure rate. Even with talented safeties, that's untenable. There are no easy fixes, either.
5. Jets falter with game on the line
There was a time when Aaron Rodgers was the most feared man in the NFL, the player opponents never wanted to have the ball late in games, no matter how long the odds or how short the clock.
That's no longer the case. This season, there have been five times Rodgers and the Jets got the ball down one possession on what proved to be their final offensive drive. Here's how they turned out:
Game | Starting field position/scenario | Drive details | Result |
Week 4 vs. Broncos | Ball at NYJ 40, down 1, 1:27 left | 5 plays, 28 yards | Greg Zuerlein missed FG |
Week 5 at Vikings (London) | Ball at NYJ 30, down 6, 3:07 left | 10 plays, 44 yards | Rodgers intercepted by Stephon Gilmore |
Week 6 vs. Bills | Ball at NYJ 30, down 3, 3:43 left | 6 plays, 10 yards | Rodgers intercepted by Taron Johnson |
Week 8 at Patriots | Ball at NYJ 30, down 3, 0:22 left | 2 plays, 16 yards | Time expires |
Week 11 vs. Colts | Ball at NYJ 30, down 1, 0:43 left | 3 plays, -2 yards | Rodgers sacked on final play, time expires |
This week's was as bad as any.
Kwity Paye closing out the win for the #Colts.
— Cody Manning (@CodyTalksNFL) November 19, 2024
Starts by helping force the backward pass/fumble that burns a lot of clock.
Finishes it by getting home on Aaron Rodgers to end the game. pic.twitter.com/wWmpryXMui
It's yet another winnable game lost in a season that's become lost as well.