I'm coming off a 1-2 week in the column, but as far as I'm concerned, Week 9 of the NFL season was a rousing success. It doesn't matter whether I had a losing week or that the Chicago Bears lost to the Pittsburgh Steelers on Monday night. All that matters is how Justin Fields played late in the game.
You have to understand; as a Bears fan, I do not know what it is like to root for an NFL team with a quarterback I trust. The best I've had in my lifetime was Jay Cutler. While I firmly believe Cutler was underrated by most, when it came down to winning time, I was always more concerned about Cutler making the game-ending mistake than I was confident he'd make the game-winning play.
So watching Fields play well against San Francisco in Week 8 and then lead the Bears on a touchdown drive to take the lead late on the road in a prime-time game while tossing lasers all over the field, that's all that matters. When Matt Nagy did the typically dumb Matt Nagy thing by opting for a 65-yard field goal attempt instead of a Hail Mary, I didn't even care that the kick ended up 10 yards short. I might finally have a QB worth believing in.
I've also got three picks for this week worth believing in.
All NFL odds are via Caesars Sportsbook.
Browns at Patriots: Browns +1.5 (-110)
Speaking of rookie quarterbacks, while Justin Fields is clearly on a path to being the greatest QB of all time, it's hard to argue that Mac Jones hasn't been the most consistent rookie QB in the NFL this season. And that hasn't stopped me from betting against him and the Patriots when favored. The Pats are 3-3 ATS as favorites this season but have covered their last two. The thing is, those covers have come against the Jets and Panthers -- two teams with a very questionable QB situation. The Browns do not have that, and with or without Nick Chubb, I consider them live dogs this weekend.
The Patriots' defense has not been great against the run, and it's at the heart of what Cleveland does offensively. Plus, we saw how well this team performed last week against Cincinnati without the Odell Beckham distraction. Furthermore, like most young QBs, Jones has struggled when pressured. That's not great news considering he'll be facing a Cleveland defense that ranks second in the league in pressure rate (34.2%).
Prediction: Browns 24, Patriots 21
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Seahawks at Packers: Seahawks +3 (+100)
We know Russell Wilson will be back for Seattle this weekend, and we can assume that Aaron Rodgers will probably be back for the Packers. Well, even if Rodgers is back, I like Seattle getting three points here, and there's still a chance Rodgers won't play, which makes Seattle even more appealing! Wilson won't be the only player Seattle gets back this weekend, either, as Chris Carson has been designated to return off injured reserve. That means Seattle is getting healthy at the right time. Meanwhile, Rodgers can't be around the team until Saturday at the earliest, so he won't have been practicing with the team or working on the game plan even if he is playing.
Now, he's still Aaron Rodgers, and he's been there a while, so I don't think the impact will be that severe, but it could lead to a slower start, which might be all we need. Nor does it hurt my confidence that the Packers' defense has been mostly mediocre this season and has really struggled in the red zone. When you can't hold opponents to field goals, it's more difficult to cover spreads as a favorite.
Prediction: Packers 24, Seahawks 23
Eagles at Broncos: Eagles +2.5 (+100)
We bet the Broncos +10 last week, and it turns out we should've bet the money line. Oh well, I'm not expecting Denver to shock the world two weeks in a row. I'm much more comfortable taking them in an underdog role than as a favorite, which they are here. And I get why. The Eagles have not been great this season, but they have been better in recent weeks.
I get the sense that Nick Sirianni has started to figure out what works best with Jalen Hurts and is finding a more healthy balance on offense. Perhaps that's why an Eagles team that averaged only 1.96 points per possession in its first five games is scoring 2.92 points per possession over the last four. Also, it's possible that losing Miles Sanders has been a blessing in disguise for this Eagles offense in the red zone. The combination of Hurts and Jordan Howard has been much more effective around the goal line. With Howard the last two games, the Eagles have scored touchdowns on six of their seven goal-to-go situations. They were at only 62.5% through their first seven games with Sanders.
Prediction: Eagles 27, Broncos 21
Record | Units | |
Last Week | 1-2 | -1.25 |
Season | 16-11 | +3.75 |
