Just like last week, the Eagles are home underdogs in the playoffs. And just like last week, much of that has to do with their quarterback, Nick Foles. But Foles exceeded expectations in the divisional round and played his part in Philadelphia's "upset" win over an Atlanta outfit that featured Matt Ryan and Julio Jones.

While the Vikings might not have a franchise quarterback -- a prototypical one, anyway -- they're much better in every way than the Falcons. The question is, are they good enough to beat the Eagles in Philadelphia on the heels of one of the most exciting playoff finishes since the Patriots did that thing they did to the Falcons 12 months ago?

How to Watch

Who: Vikings vs. Eagles
Where: Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia
When: Sunday, Jan. 21, 6:40 p.m. ET
TV: Fox

Keenum leads one of the league's most balanced offenses

It all starts with Case Keenum, who signed a one-year deal with the Vikings in the offseason for one reason: to be Sam Bradford's backup while Teddy Bridgewater continued his recovery from knee surgery. But Bradford was injured in Week 1, Keenum took over in Week 2, and now, four months later, he's emerged as one of the NFL's best players. This isn't hyperbole; in 15 regular-season starts, Keenum completed 67.6 percent of his throws with 22 touchdowns and seven interceptions. He was first in value per play among all quarterbacks, according to Football Outsiders' metrics, and fourth in total value, behind only Tom Brady, Philip Rivers and Drew Brees.

On Sunday, he was 25 of 40 for 318 yards, and saved his best for very last:

Granted, that touchdown had as much to do with Marcus Williams' curious attempt to tackle Stefon Diggs, but Keenum got the ball out accurately and on time, and fate did the rest.

But it started with Keenum, and that's been a recurring theme all season. His teammates bought in long ago and now the rest of the league, who may have missed the under-the-radar Vikings while other focusing on other storylines, are finally catching up.

For the Eagles, who feature the league's No. 5 defense and are fresh off holding the Falcons to 10 points, the question is to how to best fluster Keenum. There is no straightforward answer, no "keep him from doing this because he can't do that" game plan.

Consider these numbers, via PFF. Keenum is:

  • Fourth in their adjusted completion percentage, which accounts for dropped passes and other instances "that hurt the quarterback's completion percentage but don't help show how accurate they are."
  • Ninth in deep passing with a passer rating (91.7), better than Tom Brady;
  • Eighth in passer rating (78.5) when under pressure;
  • Sixth in passer rating (109.5) when kept clean in the pocket;
  • Fifth in passer rating (111.8) on play action and 10th without play action (92.8);
  • Seventh in passer rating (103.4) when throwing the ball in 2.5 seconds or less and fourth when throwing the ball after 2.6 seconds (92.2).

And while Ryan had Jones and Mohamed Sanu as his two favorite targets, Keenum has Adam Thielen and Diggs, who were collectively more efficient, according to Football Outsiders (Jones and Sanu ranked seventh and 18th in total value; Thielen and Diggs were 11th and ninth).

Thielen is a legit No. 1 wide receiver who has a knack for the big play -- this set up the Vikings' first comeback with just under two minutes to go:

And we saw what Diggs, who led all receivers with six catches for 137 yards, can do. But there's also tight end Kyle Rudolph, who ranks eighth in total value, along with running back Jerick McKinnon, who had 421 receiving yards to go along with 520 rushing yards. 

The point: For as well rounded as the Eagles are on defense -- they're seventh against the pass, third against the run -- the Vikings' offense is loaded with weapons. Philly's secondary has done an exemplary job shutting down the opponent's best receivers; they're seventh in the league against No. 1 receivers and first against No. 2 receivers. 

That would seem to spell doom for Thielen and Diggs, but here's the thing: Jones caught nine passes for 101 yards last week, and Sanu had 50 yards on three catches. But even if the Eagles can keep Thielen and Diggs under wraps, they're less effective against tight ends and running backs, which could mean big things for Rudolph and McKinnon.

And we haven't even talked about the Vikings' running game, which took a hit when rookie Dalvin Cook suffered a torn ACL in early October. But Latavius Murray has been a pleasant surprise, and at 6-feet-3 and 230 pounds, he's the type of runner that defenses grow weary of tackling as the game progresses. 

The Cowboys' Alfred Morris (5-10, 222 pounds) ran for 91 yards on 17 carries against the Eagles in Week 11. And Todd Gurley (6-1, 227) ran for 96 yards on 13 carries in Week 14. And when the Cowboys returned in Week 17, this time with Ezekiel Elliott (6-0, 228), he rushed for 103 yards on 27 carries. 

Murray is more upright and less elusive than Gurley or Elliott, though not by as much as you might initially suspect. According to PFF, Murray ranks 14th in their elusive rating, which measures "a runner's success beyond the point of being helped by his blockers." Gurley was ninth.

Either way, Murray remains a load to tackle. And the Eagles' defense, for as good as its been this season, has struggled against physical backs. That coupled with the overall dynamism of the Vikings' offense should make for a long afternoon on Sunday.

The Vikings' defense can exploit you in any number of ways

For as good as Minnesota's offense is, its defense has been better. They're the NFC's best unit, and second in the NFL only to the Jaguars. But unlike Jacksonville, which is first against the pass but just 26th against the run, Minnesota is also incredibly balanced -- it's fourth in pass defense and fifth in run defense. 

It starts up front with defensive tackles Linval Joseph and Tom Johnson, who rank fifth and 12th in PFF's run-stop-percentage metric. Defensive end Everson Griffen, who led the team with 13 sacks, ranks 12th in the league in pass-rush productivity while Danielle Hunter, who mans the other defensive end position, ranks 13th.

If you're looking for a weak link -- and that's a relative term with this unit -- it's probably the linebackers. Eric Kendricks has been been slightly above average at middle linebacker. Outside linebacker Anthony Barr (16th) is just average in coverage, and while Ben Gedeon does excel as a run stopper (fourth), he comes off the field in passing situations. 

Still, despite any shortcomings, on Sunday against the Saints the Vikings' front seven shut down one of the league's most explosive offenses for the first 30 minutes. Here's Griffen being disruptive near the line of scrimmage and Barr making the most of the opportunity -- one which kept New Orleans off the scoreboard late in the second quarter.

That was Brees' second interception of the first half. The first came with the quarterback facing no pressure in the pocket but underestimating the Vikings' secondary. And perhaps no defensive player is more underestimated than safety Andrew Sendejo.

That saved a touchdown. 

And Sendejo, it turns out, is better in coverage than Harrison Smith, though that's expected. As a strong safety, Smith is better near the line of scrimmage; he ranks ninth in PFF's run-stops metric and is fifth in tackling efficiency. 

Then there are the cornerbacks, starting with Xavier Rhodes, who is a legit shutdown corner. Michael Thomas had seven catches for 85 yards and two touchdowns but he had just three catches for 46 yards and a score against Rhodes even though he was targeted nine times. During the regular season, the Vikings were ninth in the league against opposing No. 1 receivers and fifth against No. 2 receivers. Trae Waynes, who plays opposite Rhodes, is also stout in run defense, while 39-year-old Terence Newman remains a solid cover corner in Minnesota's sub-packages. 

Eagles coach Doug Pederson knows what he's up against, but he also watched the Saints overcome a 17-0 deficit. And right up until this happened, was convinced he'd be facing New Orleans. But Pederson also knows that Nick Foles ain't Drew Brees and this offense isn't built to come from behind, especially against this Vikings defense. Which means Philly needs to find a way to score early and also keep Minnesota's balanced offense on the sidelines. 

Can it happen? Sure.

Will it happen? Not if the Vikings play like they have virtually all season.