The Los Angeles Chargers did their best on Saturday night of Week 15 to Chargers the living Chargers out of their situation. Having stormed back from 0-4 to tie the Chiefs at 7-6, L.A. waltzed into Arrowhead Stadium and became the living embodiment of that dream where you're naked in front of the whole school. Just a full-blown embarrassment for the Chargers in a game they could have won if they were ready to take the next step.
But the good news for Chargers fans (there are like five of us and it's all media members who picked them to win the division) is that the playoffs are not completely out of the question yet. In fact, there is at least one scenario where it is borderline likely the Chargers make the playoffs, even if the numbers say that's not true.
According to Stephen Oh's SportsLine model, the Chargers are a longshot for the playoffs, with just a 14.3 percent chance of making the postseason. They have just a 2.2 percent chance to win the division.
Cue Lloyd Christmas, and cue our first scenario for the Bolts making the playoffs.
Win the AFC West
Yes, that's right, even after being swept by the Chiefs in the regular season and sitting a game behind them, the Chargers hopes of making the playoffs and hosting a playoff game in lovely, crowded StubHub Center still live on. Just not by much.
The situation here should be obvious: the Chiefs have to lose out to the Dolphins (home, Week 16) and Broncos (in Denver, Week 17) while the Chargers have to win out against the Jets (in New York, Week 16) and Raiders (home, Week 17). It's a pretty unlikely scenario with the Chiefs sitting there as 10-point favorites against the Dolphins this week. In fact, it's much more likely the Chargers lose to the Jets than the Chiefs lose to the Dolphins.
But the scenario exists, at least for another 72 hours or so.
The wild-card option
This is, of course, the much more likely scenario. Although it is also a lot less straightforward, at least in terms of simply being about the Chiefs losing and the Chargers winning. In fact, the Chargers need help from three different teams in order to make it as a wild card. Specifically, the Ravens, Bills and Titans.
Los Angeles is in a bad spot because it can only win in a two-team tiebreaker situation, thanks to their bad conference record. Anything that involves the Chargers in a three- or four-team tiebreaker is a loser for L.A. because of that.
So here's what has to happen:
1. The Chargers win out: Obviously this has to happen. One loss and the Chargers are basically DOA for Week 17 against the Raiders. But they get the Jets and Bryce Petty on the road and then Oakland at home on New Year's Eve. Win both and they finish 9-7 and just hope for some stuff.
2. The Titans lose out: This is the biggest factor because the Titans are probably the most likely team to disrupt the Chargers situation. At 8-6, they are the current No. 5 seed. But if they lose out, they finish 8-8 and will be out of the playoffs. And there's a decent chance they lose out. Week 15 features a matchup against the Rams in Tennessee, with the Rams favored by 6.5 points. Then the Titans will get the Jaguars in Week 17, in a game where Jacksonville will play its starters and will be favored pretty heavily, even though the game is in Tennessee. A win in either game by the Titans likely dooms the Chargers.
3. The Ravens win (or lose) out: If the Ravens lose out it would help the Chargers, but that's not happening. Baltimore gets the Colts as a 13.5-point favorite in Week 16 and then the Bengals (likely as a similar favorite) at home in Week 17. With the way this defense is playing, with the opposition and with Joe Flacco getting hot, it would be a stunner if they lost either of those games.
4. The Bills go 1-1: The Bills could also go 0-2, but the Chargers need to get into a two-team tiebreaker situation with Buffalo (they own the head-to-head tiebreak in that scenario) and therefore need to make up the game difference in the standings. The easiest way for the Chargers to do that is to have the Bills lose to the Patriots in Week 16 in New England.
According to the New York Times playoff simulator, the Chargers would see their playoff odds jump to 28 percent if the Chiefs, Chargers, Patriots, Ravens and Rams win this week. That number would jump to 34 percent if the Ravens win in Week 17. They would just need to take care of business on New Year's Eve against Oakland and get some help from Jacksonville (who they might play in the opening round, oddly enough).
It's a longshot but by no means impossible.