The 14 NFL playoff teams are finally set. Some were not expected to make the playoffs at the midway point of the year and others needed to wrap up a spot in the final week -- and get some help. At the end of the day, at least four teams every season have qualified for the playoffs after failing to make the postseason the year before for the 34th consecutive season -- showcasing how much parity the NFL has year in and year out.
The Houston Texans went from worst to first in their division and the Cleveland Browns went from last place in the AFC North to the postseason. In 25 of the past 28 seasons, at least one team has made the playoffs the season after finishing in last or tied for last place.
In 20 of the past 21 seasons, at least two teams have won their divisions the season after missing the playoffs. This season, it was the Texans and Detroit Lions. As the playoffs unfold, here are some narratives for each of the teams playing for a Super Bowl.
Baltimore Ravens
Lamar Jackson can't win in playoffs: Jackson has won a playoff game in his career, on the road against the Titans. Where this narrative comes about is how poorly Jackson played in the 2019 AFC divisional round, when the Ravens had home-field advantage and the No. 1 seed in the playoffs before bowing out in the first game.
The Ravens are in the same situation this time around, but Jackson is a significantly better passer and his pocket presence has dramatically improved. The Ravens can beat teams throwing the ball as well as they can run it. Jackson is turning the football over at a significantly reduced rate too.
This is a much different Ravens team than in 2019.
Buffalo Bills
Josh Allen's giveaways will keep the Bills short of the Super Bowl: For how good of a player Allen is, the giveaways always are an issue. Allen has 18 interceptions in 17 games, an average of 1.1 interceptions per game. Even though the Bills (11-6) rallied from 6-6 to win their fourth straight AFC East crown, they should have been better than the record they finished up with.
Allen is one of a few players that can single-handedly carry a team to the Super Bowl. He also can cost a team a Super Bowl too. The 21 giveaways are something to monitor when playing top defenses in the postseason.
Cleveland Browns
Turnovers will end the season earlier than expected: The Browns ended the year with 35 giveaways, the most in the NFL. Cleveland had an interception rate of 3.51%, good for 31st in the league. The Browns' -8 turnover ratio is second worst of the playoff teams behind only Kansas City.
Joe Flacco has eight interceptions and four fumbles (one lost) in his five starts, lost in how well he's played for Cleveland since becoming the fourth quarterback to start a game for them. Cleveland doesn't protect the football well, which could be a major problem against a DeMeco Ryans defense.
Dallas Cowboys
Their season is a failure without a conference championship game appearance: Winning a Super Bowl is the goal in Dallas, and owner Jerry Jones expects nothing less from his Cowboys. Dallas hasn't reached the conference championship game since 1996, a span of 28 years.
There is more pressure on the Cowboys to win after their third straight 12-win season, a year which Dak Prescott played like the league MVP the majority of the year. If Dallas doesn't win two playoff games, this season is an abject failure.
Detroit Lions
Dan Campbell will lose a playoff game with his aggressiveness: The Lions aren't afraid to keep a defense on its toes, evidenced by the 40 fourth-down attempts this season -- most among the playoff teams. Detroit has gone for it on fourth down 118 times since Campbell took over in 2021, by far the most in the league.
The aggressiveness is why the Lions are NFC North champions in Campbell's third year, but the Lions head coach has cost his team games with that mindset (see the three two-point conversion attempts in Week 17 loss to Cowboys). Campbell seems bound to make a controversial decision at some point.
Green Bay Packers
Run defense will end their season in wild card round: The Packers run defense isn't exactly good, as Green Bay has allowed 131.6 rush yards per game (28th in NFL) and 4.5 yards per carry (27th in NFL). This also contributes to 41.78% of opponents to convert third down (24th in NFL).
The Cowboys have a mediocre run offense, averaging 11.8 yards per game (14th in NFL) and 4.08 yards per carry (19th in NFL). This is a Green Bay defense that allowed 100-plus rushing yards in eight of the last nine games.
With Dak Prescott and the Cowboys passing attack, the Packers are in for a long afternoon if they can't stop Tony Pollard and Co.
Houston Texans
Inexperience will cost them in playoffs: The Texans made the playoffs with a rookie head coach in DeMeco Ryans and rookie quarterback in C.J. Stroud, just the fifth rookie head coach and rookie quarterback to make the playoffs. Just because the Texans have these factors doesn't mean they can't go on a deep playoff run.
The 2008 Ravens went to the conference championship game with Joe Flacco and John Harbaugh, as did the 2009 Jets with Mark Sanchez and Rex Ryan. The Texans have a path to win a playoff game -- and accomplish more based on how Stroud plays.
If the regular season is any indication, Stroud will be ready for his postseason debut.
Kansas City Chiefs
They always have a chance with Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid: The Chiefs have reached the conference championship game in every season that Mahomes and Reid have been together (with Mahomes as the starting quarterback). All their AFC playoff games have been at Arrowhead Stadium, which should change this year.
Even with the problems on offense with the pass blocking and drops from pass catchers, Mahomes always seems to find a way to get the Chiefs deep into January. That can't be ignored, no matter his -- and the team's -- struggles on offense this year.
Los Angeles Rams
They have the best wide receiver duo in NFC playoffs: Puka Nacua just broke the rookie receptions (105) and receiving yards record (1,486) while Cooper Kupp was productive in 12 games (737 yards). Kupp held the recieving triple crown just two years ago and has been highly productive in the postseason before.
If A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith are healthy, they challenge for this honor. CeeDee Lamb and Brandin Cooks give this duo a run for their money too, same with Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk. Kupp and Nacua are the reason the Rams are a tough out come the playoffs.
Miami Dolphins
Time to beat a winning team: The Dolphins do have a win against a winning team (Christmas Eve against the Cowboys), but their track record against teams over .500 isn't good. The Dolphins are 1-5 against teams that finished with a winning record, losing four on the road.
Miami can change the narrative with a playoff win, something the franchise hasn't accomplished since 2000. The Dolphins can erase a lot of narratives about this team.
Philadelphia Eagles
They are the easy choice for one and done: The Eagles have one of the biggest collapses in recent NFL memory, going from a 10-1 start to losing five of their final six and making the playoffs. Only the 1999 Dolphins went 1-5 in their last six and made the playoffs, and they won a playoff game (before losing 62-7 in the divisional round).
This team can't stop anyone on defense (the Cardinals and Giants carved them up) and the coach's message is getting stale. No matter the opponent, the Eagles just have the look of a team with an early exit.
Pittsburgh Steelers
T.J. Watt needs to play for the Steelers to have a chance: The heart and soul of the Steelers is Watt, who is going to be a finalist for the Defensive Player of the Year. Watt became the first player to lead the NFL in sacks in three different seasons and the Steelers defense is significantly better with him on the field.
The offense averaged just 17.5 points per game this season -- the fewest by a 10-win team since the 2005 Bears. The Steelers made the playoffs on the heels of their defense over the course of the year, which Watt played the biggest role on the unit. They need Watt.
San Francisco 49ers
Primed for the Super Bowl: The 49ers are clearly the best team in the conference, seemingly unbeatable when Christian McCaffrey and Deebo Samuel are both on the field. The only team to really pound them over the past two months were the Ravens, but no NFC team has been able to challenge them since their three-game losing streak in October.
May seem like a reach, but if McCaffrey and Samuel are healthy -- the 49ers are primed for a Super Bowl run. They also get a week to rest up.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The run offense will lead to early playoff exit: As well as Baker Mayfield played this year, he got next to nothing in the run game. Tampa Bay finished with 87.3 rush yards per game (31st in NFL) and averaged 3.4 yards per carry (32nd in NFL). Tampa Bay rushed for under 100 yards in 12 games this season, showcasing how ineffective their ground game was.
If the Buccaneers are one-dimensional in the playoffs, the NFC South champion will be one and done again.
