NFL odds, Vegas lines, picks, spreads, game predictions: Model loves 49ers and Packers in Week 5, 2024

SportsLine's advanced model has locked in its Week 5 NFL betting picks from 10,000 simulations

By CBS Sports Staff

Oct 6, 2024 at 11:56 am ET • 4 min read

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Half of the 10 Sunday afternoon games on the Week 5 NFL schedule are divisional matchups, but oddly, none of them features a team with a winning record. Still, bettors should feel a little more comfortable placing Week 5 NFL bets on these contests, considering there are plenty of recent meetings to draw trends from. The 1 p.m. ET slate has Ravens vs. Bengals, Patriots vs. Dolphins and Colts vs. Jaguars, with each of the three having Week 5 NFL spreads of under a field goal in the latest NFL odds.

At 4:05 p.m. ET, Raiders vs. Broncos also has a slim spread, with Denver favored by three points. However, 49ers vs. Cardinals has one of the biggest Week 5 NFL betting lines, as San Francisco is a 7.5-point favorite. Which of these rivals should get your football bets, and where should you lean towards in the other NFL matchups of the week? All of the Week 5 NFL lines are listed below, and SportsLine's advanced computer model has all the NFL betting advice and NFL predictions you need to make the best Week 5 NFL picks now.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on A-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters Week 5 of the 2024 NFL season on an incredible 188-131 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. It is also on a 42-23 roll on A-rated NFL picks since Week 7 of the 2022 NFL season.

The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past six years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94% of CBS Sports Football Pick'em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

Now, it has turned its attention to the latest Week 5 NFL odds and NFL betting lines on the spread, money line, and over-under, and locked in picks for every NFL matchup. Head here to see every pick.

Top Week 5 NFL predictions

We can tell you one of the model's strongest Week 5 NFL picks is that the 49ers (-7.5, 48.5) cover the spread versus the Cardinals. Arizona is just 2-5 against the spread in divisional games since the start of last season, giving it the fifth-worst cover percentage (28.6%) over that span. The Cards have lost four straight outright to San Francisco, with a mind-boggling 22-point average margin of defeat over those contests.

Even without playing with all of his weapons for most of the season, Brock Purdy leads the NFL in passing yards and yards per attempt. The SportsLine model projects him to have over 50 more passing yards than Kyler Murray has passing plus rushing yards combined. With the NFL's second leading rusher, Jordan Mason, forecasted to have 100 rushing yards, San Francisco's offense should overwhelm Arizona. Thus, the model has San Fran (-7.5) covering with plenty of points to spare, winning ATS in well over 60% of simulations. See which other teams to pick here.

Another one of its Week 5 NFL betting predictions: the Packers (-3, 49) cover on the road versus the Rams. Green Bay is coming off a defeat to Minnesota in which Jordan Love made his return and was clearly rusty early on. The Packers fell into a 28-0 hole, but they then outscored the Vikings 29-3 over the last 35 minutes of the game. Love set career-highs in both passing yards (389) and touchdowns (four) ahead of a matchup with a Rams defense which ranks 31st in both points allowed and yards allowed.

Los Angeles just allowed Caleb Williams to have his best pro game, with career-highs in both completion percentage and passer rating, in a loss to the Bears. L.A. could also only muster one touchdown on offense as that side of the ball has glaring weaknesses. The Rams have the No. 28 rushing offense and are still missing WRs Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua in the passing game. Love should be much more consistent another week removed from his injury, which has the model predicting Green Bay (-3.5) covers well over 50% of the time. The model also says the Over (48.5) hits in over 50% of simulations. See which other teams to pick here.

How to make Week 5 NFL picks

The model has also made the call on who wins and covers in every other game on the Week 5 NFL schedule and just revealed three teams that win outright at least 70% of the time, potentially giving you a huge payday. You can only get every pick for every game at SportsLine.

So what NFL picks can you make with confidence, and which three must-see teams should you lock in now? Check out the latest NFL odds below, then visit SportsLine to see which teams win and cover the spread, all from a proven computer model that has returned well over $7,000, and find out.