NFL odds, Vegas lines, picks, spreads, game predictions: Model high on Bills and Chargers in Week 1, 2024

SportsLine's advanced model has locked in its Week 1 NFL betting picks from 10,000 simulations

By CBS Sports Staff

Sep 8, 2024 at 9:59 am ET • 4 min read

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A new NFL record will be set once Jayden Daniels takes his first snap on Sunday when Washington takes on Tampa. The Commanders will start their eighth Week 1 quarterback in as many years, as the reigning Heisman winner is a 3.5-point underdog in his first pro start, per the latest Week 1 NFL odds. The last quarterback to start consecutive season-openers for Washington was Kirk Cousins (2015-17). The new Falcons quarterback is favored by 3.5 in the latest the Week 1 NFL betting lines. The most common margin of victory in NFL games is three points, so it wouldn't hurt to have NFL betting advice to make sure you land on the right side of the NFL spreads in those games. All of the Week 1 NFL lines are listed below, and SportsLine's advanced computer model has all the NFL betting advice and NFL predictions you need to make the best Week 1 NFL picks now.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on A-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters Week 1 of the 2024 NFL season on an incredible 185-129 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. It is also on a 39-21 roll on A-rated NFL picks since Week 7 of the 2022 NFL season.

The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past six years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94% of CBS Sports Football Pick'em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

Now, it has turned its attention to the latest Week 1 NFL odds and NFL betting lines on the spread, money line, and over-under, and locked in picks for every NFL matchup. Head here to see every pick.

Top Week 1 NFL predictions

We can tell you one of the model's strongest Week 1 NFL picks is that the Chargers (-3) cover the spread at home versus the Raiders. It's another divisional matchup and both teams will be hoping to make up ground on the Chiefs in the AFC West after shoring up their coaching staff in the offseason. Antonio Pierce went from interim head coach to a permanent hire and the Chargers landed Jim Harbaugh, who went 44-19-1 in four seasons with the 49ers and most recently won a national championship at Michigan.

We saw a decent sample size of the Raiders with Pierce, as he led them to a 5-4 record over the final nine games last season. However, Harbaugh's ability to quickly change a culture has been well-documented and he's got an elite quarterback at his disposal this time around in Justin Herbert. Los Angeles won 24-17 at home last season and the model is expecting more of the same, predicting that the Chargers cover in over 60% of simulations. See which other teams to pick here.

Another one of its Week 1 NFL predictions: the Bills (-6.5) cover at home versus the Cardinals. Accuracy has never been Kyler Murray's strong suit, but he greatly struggled in that regard last year. His 31.9% completion percentage on throws of 15-plus air yards was third-worst in the NFL, while his 53.3% CMP rate when targeting wide receivers was second-worst. While the Cards drafted WR Marvin Harrison Jr. to assist with the latter, he'll be going up against a buzzsaw of a defense that allowed the sixth-fewest receiving yards to opposing wideouts last season.

On the other side of the ball, there simply isn't an answer for Josh Allen. He's accounted for 174 total touchdowns over the last four seasons, which are the most by any player at any position in any four-year span in NFL history. He's also greatly improved his awareness in the pocket as he was sacked on just 4.0% of dropbacks last season, which was the best mark in the league. With Arizona's struggles through the air, and Allen's historic productivity, the model has Buffalo (-6.5) winning by double-digits and covering in almost 70% of simulations. See which other teams to pick here.

How to make Week 1 NFL picks

The model has also made the call on who wins and covers in every other game on the Week 1 NFL schedule and just revealed four teams that win outright over 70% of the time. You can only get every pick for every game at SportsLine.

So what NFL picks can you make with confidence, and which four favorites should you lock in now? Check out the latest NFL odds below, then visit SportsLine to see which teams win and cover the spread, all from a proven computer model that has returned well over $7,000, and find out.