NFL odds, picks, predictions for 2020 Super Bowl: Model taking under in Chiefs vs. 49ers

SportsLine's computer model simulated the 2020 Super Bowl between the Chiefs and 49ers 10,000 times.

By CBS Sports Staff

Feb 2, 2020 at 2:06 pm ET • 2 min read

Super Bowl Sunday is finally here, as the San Francisco 49ers and Kansas City Chiefs will face off for the Lombardi Trophy at 6:30 p.m. ET in Miami. The latest 2020 Super Bowl odds list the Chiefs as 1.5-point favorites, while the over-under stands at 53.5 after late action on the under. The 49ers won the NFC West on the strength of quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo's 3,978 passing yards and 27 touchdowns and a run game that produced 144.1 yards per game, second-most in the league.

Kansas City, which emerged victorious in Super Bowl IV as a 13-point underdog against the Vikings, got to Super Bowl LIV behind another stellar season from quarterback Patrick Mahomes. The reigning NFL Most Valuable Player passed for 4,031 yards and 26 touchdowns despite missing two games with a dislocated kneecap. The full Super Bowl 54 odds and trends are all listed below, and SportsLine's advanced computer model has all the NFL betting advice and predictions you need to make the best NFL picks for the 2020 Super Bowl now.

Winning picks from a proven model

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up over $7,000 for $100 players on its top-rated NFL picks since its inception four-plus years ago. It's on a 96-65 roll on top-rated picks that dates back to 2017, and last season, the model also ranked in the Top 10 on NFLPickWatch for the third year in a row on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 96 percent of CBS Sports office pool players.

Anyone who has followed it has consistently been and way up. Now, the computer examined the latest NFL odds and lines, simulated every snap, and its Super Bowl predictions are in.

Super Bowl picks to target

One of the NFL predictions for the 2020 Super Bowl from the model is that the under (53.5) clears when the Chiefs and Niners meet up at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami. While the total moved as high as 54.5 in the two weeks before kickoff, it has dropped a full point in the last 24 hours as bettors give more respect to each team's defense.

The 49ers have one of the top pass defenses in the game, as the defensive end trio of Arik Armstead (10), Nick Bosa (9) and DeForest Buckner (7.5) combined for 26.5 of San Francisco's 48 sacks. Even when quarterbacks were allowed to stay upright, they didn't have much success against the Niners, as their defense allowed an NFL-low 2,707 passing yards this season. Getting to and containing Kansas City quarterback Patrick Mahomes will be key for San Francisco early to keep the former MVP from finding a rhythm with his receivers.

The model says San Francisco limits Mahomes to under 260 passing yards and two touchdowns. SportsLine's model also says this game staying below the total, as the under hits in more than 50 percent of simulations.

The model also has made the call against the spread and on the money line for Super Bowl LIV, saying one side covers in well over 50 percent of simulations. It's also come up with the exact projected final score for this season-defining matchup, so you need to see its NFL picks for Chiefs vs. 49ers. Head to SportsLine now to see its Super Bowl 2020 picks.