Week 16 in the NFL will attract bets from average Joes to professional bettors. The Atlanta Falcons are six-point underdogs against the New Orleans Saints, the New England Patriots are favored by double-digits against the Buffalo Bills, and the Dallas Cowboys are five-point favorites against the Seattle Seahawks in a game that has already seen the line move several points.

With so many eye-popping games and so many NFL odds on the move, you need to know what SportsLine's advanced computer model is picking.

With a 153-71 record, SportsLine is beating nearly every expert tracked on NFLPickWatch for the second year in a row.

It's fresh off a week in which it absolutely crushed its picks, going 14-2 straight up and correctly calling tight wins for the Patriots, Packers and Cowboys. It also nailed "Monday Night Football" within a point.

Those NFL picks helped run its straight-up record to a stunning 51-13 over the past four weeks. Anyone who has followed its picks is up big.

With Week 16 here, the computer simulated every game 10,000 times and came up with some surprising results.

One team the model is extremely high on: the Pittsburgh Steelers (-9), who take on the Houston Texans on Christmas Day. The Steelers will be without all-world wide receiver Antonio Brown, but the model says they'll still cover easily against a Texans team starting T.J. Yates at quarterback.

The Steelers are covering the spread in well over 50 percent of simulations, and the model is predicting a 26-15 Pittsburgh victory. It says QB Ben Roethlisberger won't skip a beat without Brown and still throw for almost 300 yards and two touchdowns against Houston's 27th-ranked pass defense.

The model is also all over the Under (45.5) in this game, saying it hits in 63 percent of simulations. Go against the grain of the public, which says the Under hits just 43 percent of the time.

One surprise: the New Orleans Saints (-6) win at home against the Falcons, but it'll be much closer than Vegas thinks. 

After their Week 15 win on Monday night over the Bucs, Atlanta has now won five of six. The model says Atlanta will threaten for a big upset at the Superdome that would shake up the NFC South in a huge way.

The Falcons are covering the six-point spread nearly 60 percent of the time in a game that the model says will come down to the wire. In fact, the Saints are only winning 56 percent of simulations, so tread lightly before backing Drew Brees and company, even at home.

The model also has a strong pick you need to see for the huge showdown between the Cowboys and Seahawks -- two 8-6 teams fighting for a playoff spot -- and it's also calling for an AFC contender to go down hard. You can only get those picks at SportsLine.

What NFL picks can you make with confidence in Week 16? Check out the NFL odds below and then visit SportsLine to see which NFL teams are winning more than 50 percent of simulations, plus see which side of the big Seahawks-Cowboys game you need to be all over and find out which AFC contender goes down hard, all from the model that is on a blistering 51-13 run this year, plus get NFL picks from 20 experts.

Miami Dolphins at Kansas City Chiefs (-10.5, 43.5)
Detroit Lions at Cincinnati Bengals (+3, 44)
L.A. Rams at Tennessee Titans (+6.5, 47.5)
Cleveland Browns at Chicago Bears (-6.5, 38)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers (-10.5, 46.5)
Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints (-6, 52.5)
L.A. Chargers at New York Jets (+6.5, 42.5)
Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots (-11.5, 46.5)
Denver Broncos at Washington Redskins (-3.5, 40.5)
Jacksonville Jaguars at San Francisco 49ers (+4, 42)
New York Giants at Arizona Cardinals (-3, 40)
Seattle Seahawks at Dallas Cowboys (-5, 47.5)
Pittsburgh Steelers at Houston Texans (+9, 45.5)
Oakland Raiders at Philadelphia Eagles (-9, 47)