NFL odds, lines, spreads, picks, predictions for Week 17, 2020: Proven model loving Bears, Saints

SportsLine's computer model simulated every Week 17 NFL game 10,000 times with surprising results

By CBS Sports Staff

Jan 3, 2021 at 9:21 am ET • 4 min read

NFL bettors are keeping close tabs on which teams will rest their starters during the final week of the regular season. The Vikings and Lions are out of playoff contention, and Minnesota will be without superstar running back Dalvin Cook after his father passed away earlier this week. However, the Vikings are still seven-point favorites in the latest Week 17 NFL odds from William Hill Sportsbook.

The Patriots are guaranteed their first losing season since 2000 as they take on a Jets squad that has won two games in a row to fall to No. 2 in the 2021 NFL Draft order. New England is the three-point home favorite in the latest Week 17 NFL spreads, but the house isn't expecting very much scoring, with the total at a week-low 39.5 points. So who should you back with your NFL bets? All of the Week 17 NFL lines are listed below, and SportsLine's advanced computer model has all the NFL betting advice and predictions you need to make the best Week 17 NFL picks now.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up almost $7,900 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception five-plus years ago. It is a sizzling 23-13 on top-rated NFL picks this season, returning well over $800. The model also enters Week 17 on an incredible 119-77 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season.

Additionally, the model also ranked in the Top 10 on NFLPickWatch in three of the past four years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 95 percent of CBS Sports office pool players three times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

Now, it has examined the latest Week 17 NFL odds and NFL betting lines from William Hill, simulated every snap, and its predictions are in. Head to SportsLine now to see them all.

Top NFL predictions for Week 17

One of the top Week 17 NFL picks the model recommends: The Bears cover as 5.5-point home underdogs against the Packers. Chicago has had an up-and-down season, beginning at 5-1 before losing six in a row.

The Bears need a win or Cardinals loss to get into the NFL playoff bracket, and Green Bay could struggle to slow down an offense that scored 25 points against them in Week 12 and has only gained confidence. The Bears have averaged 35 points and 395.7 yards per contest in the four weeks since they last played the Packers. They've gotten quality play out of quarterback Mitchell Trubisky during that span (1,001 yards and seven touchdowns).

Running back David Montgomery has scored seven times and produced 692 yards from scrimmage in his last five games, gashing Green Bay for 143 and a score during that span. The model predicts that Montgomery approaches 100 yards from scrimmage once again to help Chicago cover in nearly 60 percent of simulations.

Another one of the top Week 17 NFL predictions from the model: The Saints (-6.5) cover against the Panthers. New Orleans has clinched the NFC South, but could still grab the top spot in the NFC playoff bracket if Green Bay falters against the Bears. That should be enough motivation for Drew Brees and Alvin Kamara to stay on the field.

Carolina has been pesky against the spread this season, posting a 9-6 record. But Matt Rhule's squad is just 2-8 straight up since its 3-2 start and doesn't have much motivation to push star running back Christian McCaffrey (thigh) into this game.

SportsLine's model projects that New Orleans will win by double-digits as the Saints cover the spread nearly 60 percent of the time. The over (47.5) hits more than 50 percent of the time.

How to make Week 17 NFL picks

The model has also made the call on every other game on the Week 17 NFL schedule and identified a big favorite that goes down hard in a major upset. You can only get every pick for every game here.

What NFL picks can you make with confidence in Week 17? And which heavy favorite goes down hard? Check out the latest NFL odds from William Hill below and then visit SportsLine to see which NFL teams are covering in more than 50 percent of simulations, all from the model that is up nearly $7,900 on its top-rated NFL picks.