NFL odds, lines, picks, spreads, bets, predictions for Week 3, 2023: Model high on Chiefs and Dolphins

SportsLine's advanced model has locked in its Week 3 NFL picks for every game on the NFL schedule

By CBS Sports Staff

Sep 24, 2023 at 11:58 am ET • 4 min read

Kirk Cousins and the Minnesota Vikings are still searching for their first win of the season after suffering back-to-back defeats. The Vikings will now host Justin Herbert and the Los Angeles Chargers in a game that feels like a must-win for both clubs. According to the latest Week 3 NFL odds from the SportsLine consensus, Minnesota is a one-point underdog at home, one of the slimmest NFL spreads of the week. The Chargers have struggled mightily against the Vikings, losing four of their last five games against Minnesota. Los Angeles is also just 2-5 in their last seven games on the road.

Should you include the Vikings in your Week 3 NFL bets, or should you look elsewhere for value in the NFL betting lines? All of the Week 3 NFL lines are listed below, and SportsLine's advanced computer model has all the NFL betting advice and predictions you need to make the best Week 3 NFL picks now.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up more than $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters Week 3 of the 2023 NFL season on an incredible 164-117 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. It is also on a 18-9 roll on top-rated NFL picks since Week 7 of last season.

The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past six years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94% of CBS Sports Football Pick'em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

Now, it has turned its attention to the latest Week 3 NFL odds and locked in picks for every NFL matchup. Head here to see every pick.

Top Week 3 NFL predictions

One of the model's strongest Week 3 NFL picks is that the Chiefs (-12.5) cover against the Bears in almost 60% of simulations. Kansas City's offense wasn't clicking on all cylinders in last week's win over the Jaguars, but the defense showed serious improvement following the Week 1 loss to Detroit. The Chiefs gave up just nine points to the Jaguars and held Jacksonville to 74 total rushing yards.

Chris Jones recorded 1.5 sacks in his first game of the season and will now try to disrupt a Bears offense that can't seem to find its rhythm. Chicago's offense is averaging 273.5 yards per game, which ranks 27th in the league. The Bears are 0-5 in their last five games on the road and have lost 10 straight dating back to last season. That's a big reason why the model is projecting Kansas City to record a dominant win at home, covering the 12.5-point spread in well over 50% of simulations. See which other teams to pick here.

Another one of its Week 3 NFL predictions: The Dolphins (-6.5) cover the spread at home versus the Broncos. There are nine 2-0 teams left standing, but Miami is one of just two who opened the year with back-to-back road wins. Likewise, there are nine 0-2 teams, and the Broncos are one of two that have opened with back-to-back home losses.

It's reasonable to think that Miami will be even better in its home debut while the Broncos will struggle even more away from the Mile High City. One can't underestimate what it's like going from the thin air of Denver to the humidity of South Florida, but the history of these teams when playing in Miami indicates the drastic adjustment one has to make. The Broncos are 1-8 all-time when playing at Miami and needed overtime for that one victory.

The 1 p.m. ET kickoff doesn't do the Broncos any favors either with them traveling two time zones and having to adjust their body clocks. Denver lost all four of its games that kicked off at 1 p.m. ET last season, while the Dolphins went 8-5 at this time. Game location and time shouldn't be discounted when it comes to Week 3 NFL bets, and the model took those into account. It has Miami winning by double digits and covering as 6.5-point favorites in nearly 60% of simulations. See which other teams to pick here.

How to make Week 3 NFL picks

The model has also made the call on who wins and covers in every other game on the Week 3 NFL schedule, and it's identified two must-see underdogs who pull off huge upsets. You can only get every pick for every game at SportsLine.

So what NFL picks can you make with confidence, and which two underdogs stun the league? Check out the latest NFL odds below, then visit SportsLine to see which teams win and cover the spread, all from a proven computer model that has returned over $7,000 since its inception, and find out.