NFL odds, lines, picks, spreads, bets, predictions for Week 17, 2023: Model backing Bears, Seahawks

SportsLine's advanced model has locked in its Week 17 NFL picks for every game on the NFL schedule

By CBS Sports Staff

Dec 31, 2023 at 11:53 am ET • 3 min read

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Baker Mayfield and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers have now won four consecutive games after securing an impressive 30-12 victory over the Jacksonville Jaguars last week. The Buccaneers will look to win their fifth straight when they host the New Orleans Satins for an NFC South rivalry on Sunday. According to the latest Week 17 NFL odds via Sportsline consensus, Tampa Bay is listed as a 2.5-point favorite at home.

The Buccaneers are 5-0 in their last five games played in December, making this a game many bettors will target when locking in their Week 17 NFL picks. Elsewhere on the NFL odds board, Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs are 6.5-point favorites at home against the Cincinnati Bengals. All of the Week 17 NFL lines are listed below, and SportsLine's advanced computer model has all the NFL betting advice and NFL predictions you need to make the best Week 17 NFL picks now.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters Week 17 of the 2023 NFL season on an incredible 178-129 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. It is also on a 32-21 roll on top-rated NFL picks since Week 7 of last season.

The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past six years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94% of CBS Sports Football Pick'em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

Now, it has turned its attention to the latest Week 17 NFL odds and locked in picks for every NFL matchup. Head here to see every pick.

Top Week 17 NFL predictions

We can tell you one of the model's Week 17 NFL picks is that the Bears (-2.5) cover against the Falcons in a 1 p.m. ET kickoff at Soldier Field. Chicago has looked like a completely different team during the second half of the season, winning four of its last six games to remain mathematically alive for an NFC Wild Card spot. The Bears cruised to a 27-16 win over Arizona last week, extending their home winning streak to four games.

Quarterback Justin Fields has thrown four touchdown passes and rushed for two more scores over his past five games after returning from injury. The Bears have stepped up defensively as well, allowing less than 18 points per game over their last six games. They have also given up just 13.5 points per game during their four-game home winning streak, which is one reason why they are covering the spread in well over 50% of the model's latest simulations. See which other teams to pick here.

Another one of its Week 17 NFL predictions: The Seahawks (-4) cover the spread at home versus the Steelers in a 4:05 p.m. ET kickoff. Seattle has been on a wild ride in 2023. The Seahawks raced out to a 6-3 start only to lose four in a row and find themselves outside of the playoff picture with a month to go. However, the Seahawks have rebounded with wins over the Eagles and Titans despite being out-gained in both games and are currently the No. 7 seed in the NFC.

Now they'll take on a Steelers squad that has lost three of their last four games. After going seven weeks in the middle of the season without giving up more than 20 points, Pittsburgh has given up 21 points or more in three of its last four games and the model is predicting that the Seattle offense applies pressure again on Sunday. It has the Seahawks winning 22-16 on average and has them covering the spread in well over 50% of simulations. See which other teams to pick here.

How to make Week 17 NFL picks

The model has also made the call on who wins and covers in every other game on the Week 17 NFL schedule and just revealed three teams that outright win well over 70% of the time. You can only get every pick for every game at SportsLine.

So what NFL picks can you make with confidence, and which three teams should you lock in now? Check out the latest NFL odds below, then visit SportsLine to see which teams win and cover the spread, all from a proven computer model that has returned well over $7,000 since its inception, and find out.