NFL odds, lines, picks, spreads, bets, predictions for Week 1, 2023: Model backs Commanders, Vikings

SportsLine's advanced model has locked in its Week 1 NFL picks for every game on the NFL schedule

By CBS Sports Staff

Sep 10, 2023 at 11:52 am ET • 4 min read

USATSI

The 2023 NFL season is here and Week 1 can be the toughest week for oddsmakers and sports bettors looking to make their picks based on the Week 1 NFL odds. When you look at the Week 1 NFL schedule, teams are full of optimism. Every team wants to think its offseason moves will either help them remain toward the top or become a Cinderella, defying NFL spreads week after week. Seven of the 15 remaining Week 1 games have the favorite listed at -3 or lower in the NFL Vegas odds. The parity is evident when looking at the Week 1 NFL odds, so who can you feel confident in?

The Giants (14-5) had the best record against the spread last season, including the playoffs, but they won't be surprising many as underdogs this season. The Giants are 3.5-point home underdogs against the Cowboys on Sunday Night Football in the latest Week 1 NFL odds. Are they being underestimated yet again and should you include them in your Week 1 NFL picks? All of the Week 1 NFL lines are listed below, and SportsLine's advanced computer model has all the NFL betting advice and predictions you need to make the best Week 1 NFL picks now.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters the 2023 NFL season on an incredible 163-113 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. It is also on a 17-6 roll on top-rated NFL picks since Week 7 of last season.

The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past six years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94 percent of CBS Sports Football Pick'em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

Now, it has turned its attention to the latest Week 1 NFL odds and locked in picks for every NFL matchup. Head here to see every pick.

Top Week 1 NFL predictions

One of the model's strongest Week 1 NFL picks is that the Commanders (-7) cover against the Cardinals. Arizona could be on their way to the No. 1 pick in the 2023 NFL Draft after going 4-13 this season. Kyler Murray (knee) opens the season on the PUP list and they released their top receiver, DeAndre Hopkins, making offense hard to come by on Sunday.

This is a tough Week 1 matchup for Arizona with their offensive unknowns since Washington has one of the best defenses in the NFL. Washington allowed the third-fewest yards per game (304.6) and tied for seventh in points allowed per game (20.2). The Commanders are ready to hand the offense to Sam Howell, who was selected in the fifth round of the 2022 NFL out of North Carolina. The young quarterback played well when he started the final game of the season against Dallas, completing 11 of 19 passes for 169 yards with a touchdown and an interception and rushing for 35 yards, including a touchdown, in a 26-6 victory. The model projects Washington to force two turnovers and with Arizona's offensive struggles as a whole, the Commanders are covering the spread well over 50% of the time. See which other teams to pick here.

Another one of its Week 1 NFL predictions: The Vikings (-5) cover the spread at home versus the Buccaneers over 50% of the time. Tampa ranked last in the NFL in rushing last season, both in terms of rushing yards and yards per attempt. However, it still made the playoffs thanks to the right arm of Tom Brady, but with the GOAT gone, the team doesn't have anyone to hang its hat on offensively. The Bucs made no major additions on that side of the ball and lost both Brady and Leonard Fournette, who led the team in scrimmage yards and touchdowns in 2022.

It could be a struggle for Tampa to keep up with an explosive Vikings offense that averaged 27 points per game at home last season. The Kirk Cousins to Justin Jefferson connection is one of the most lethal in the NFL, while defending the pass is Tampa's weakness. Only one team allowed more passing touchdowns than the Bucs last season, and Tampa struggled on the road, losing six of its last seven away games. The Vikings will take care of business in Week 1, with the model projecting them to win outright in well over 60% of simulations. See which other teams to pick here.

How to make Week 1 NFL picks

The model has also made the call on who wins and covers in every other game on the Week 1 NFL schedule, and it's calling for a Super Bowl contender to go down hard. You can only get every pick for every game at SportsLine.

So what NFL picks can you make with confidence, and which Super Bowl contender goes down hard? Check out the latest NFL odds below, then visit SportsLine to see which teams win and cover the spread, all from a proven computer model that has returned over $7,000 since its inception, and find out.