NFL odds, lines, picks, spreads, best bets, predictions, office pool, top survivor picks for Week 17, 2022

SportsLine's model locked in its Week 17 NFL predictions, NFL survivor picks and NFL office pool picks

By CBS Sports Staff

Jan 1, 2023 at 9:26 am ET • 4 min read

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The Green Bay Packers will try to get back to the .500 mark for the first time since Week 6 when they face the Minnesota Vikings on Sunday afternoon during the Week 17 NFL schedule. Green Bay is on a three-game winning streak, but the Packers still needs a pair of wins to close the regular season in order to keep their playoff hopes alive. The Packers sprung a 26-20 upset at Miami on Christmas Day as 3.5-point underdogs. They are 3-point favorites against Minnesota in the latest Week 17 NFL odds at Caesars Sportsbook. Minnesota has gone 12-3 through its first 15 games and is coming off another tight win against the Giants. Should you be backing the Vikings or Packers with your Week 17 NFL bets? All of the Week 17 NFL lines are listed below, and SportsLine's advanced computer model has all the NFL betting advice and predictions you need to make the best Week 17 NFL picks now.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters Week 17 of the 2022 NFL season on an incredible 158-113 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season.

The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past six years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94% of CBS Sports Football Pick'em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

Now, it has turned its attention to the latest Week 17 NFL odds and locked in NFL picks for every NFL matchup. Head here to see every pick.

Top Week 17 NFL predictions

One of the model's strongest Week 17 NFL picks is that the Patriots (-2.5) cover the spread at home against the Dolphins. Miami's strong season has come to a crashing halt, as the Dolphins wrapped up a winless December with a 26-20 loss to Green Bay on Christmas Day. They also suffered losses to the 49ers, Chargers and Bills earlier in the month, putting their NFL playoff bracket hopes in limbo. New England has a chance to jump back into the AFC playoff picture on Sunday, as the Patriots are currently the first team outside the projected postseason bracket in the AFC.

Miami head coach Mike McDaniel confirmed Wednesday that starting quarterback Tua Tagovailoa sustained a concussion in the loss to the Packers, so he will be sidelined this week. New England's defense has not allowed more than 30 points in four straight games, holding Cincinnati's offense to 22 points last week. SportsLine's model projects Miami to score just 17 points in this matchup, as the Patriots are covering the spread in well over 60% of simulations. See which other teams to pick here.

Top Week 17 NFL survivor picks

The model's Week 17 NFL knockout pool picks say to avoid the Buccaneers, even though they are favorites versus the Panthers. Tampa Bay has been one of the most disappointing teams in the NFL this season, covering the spread just once in its last nine home games. The Buccaneers have also gone winless against the spread in their last five games overall, so they are failing to meet expectations right now. They have won four of their last five games against Carolina, but their lack of consistency this season makes the Bucs a team to avoid in Week 17 survivor pools.

Carolina has been trending in the opposite direction, covering the number in five of its last six games. The Panthers have already put together one good showing against Tampa Bay this season, rolling to a 21-3 win in Week 7. They held the Buccaneers to just 46 rushing yards on 16 carries and picked up stops on 10 of Tampa Bay's 12 third downs. The model does not trust the Buccaneers to take care of business as slight home favorites on Sunday afternoon, suggesting that they should be avoided with survivor pool picks. See which team you should pick here.

Top Week 17 NFL office pool picks

One of the strongest Week 17 NFL football pool picks from the model is that the Lions beat the Bears. Chicago's eight-game losing streak is tied for the longest in franchise history and it has allowed at least 25 points in each game during the streak. Meanwhile, Detroit already boasts a top-five offense in terms of points and yards, so this matchup will be one team's strength against another's weakness.

Jared Goff is on the best stretch of his career, as he has 12 touchdowns versus zero picks over his last seven games. Now, he faces a Bears defense that has allowed its last two opposing quarterbacks to account for three touchdowns apiece. Detroit must win to keep its playoff hopes alive, so it has an incentive that Chicago doesn't. The model projects the Lions to win in 70% of simulations. See which other teams to pick here.

How to make Week 17 NFL picks

The model has made the call on who wins and covers in every other game on the Week 17 NFL schedule, and it's calling for a shocking loss by a division leader. It's also backing a surprising team that's turned the corner in its NFL survivor picks. You can only get every pick for every game at SportsLine.

So what NFL predictions, NFL pool picks, and NFL survivor picks can you make with confidence? And which division leader goes down hard? Check out the latest NFL odds below, then visit SportsLine to see which teams win and cover the spread, all from a proven computer model that has returned well over $7,000 since its inception, and find out.