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All times Eastern | Game odds via SportsLine consensus
🔥 The Hot Ticket
Bills at Jets, 8:15 p.m. | TV: ESPN
- The Pick: Bills -2 (-110)
- Key trend: The Jets are 9-21 ATS in division games since 2018.
Did we all have a great offseason talking about Aaron Rodgers and the New York Jets? Did you enjoy watching the multi-part promotional video about what a great teammate Aaron Rodgers is on "Hard Knocks?" He's just the best! Look at how well he gets along with his teammates! He's super relatable!
Sure, whatever. Obviously, as a Bears fan, I'm going to feel some type of way about Rodgers. I don't like him, but that doesn't mean I won't readily admit he's one of the greatest ever to play the position. As a gambler, I can't wait to fade all the offseason hype surrounding Rodgers and the Jets.
Did we forget that the Buffalo Bills are extremely talented? They have one of the best quarterbacks in the league, a strong offensive line and talent at the skill positions. They also have one of the best defenses in the NFL. They're a better team than the Jets and should be favored by quite a bit more in this matchup.
The Bills are a team with the Super Bowl on their minds. The Jets are just hoping to become respectable. The difference in approach will be noticeable tonight.
I'm not saying this to suggest the Jets stink. They do not. They have a solid roster and made an obvious upgrade at QB. That's very important. I just don't think the addition of Rodgers -- who is still good but not quite Aaron Freaking Rodgers anymore -- is enough to close the gap on this Bills squad or even the Dolphins in the AFC East.
It won't be as bad in New York as it was for the Giants last night, but there aren't going to be many happy football fans in any of the boroughs come Tuesday morning.
👀 Here's what SportsLine is saying about the game: The Projection Model has no strong leans, but there are no shortage of picks being shared by SportsLine's handicappers.
💰 The Picks
Bills at Jets, 8:15 p.m. | TV: ESPN
- The Pick: Aaron Rodgers Under 234.5 Yards Passing (-110)
- Key trend: Rodgers has only eclipsed this mark twice in his last 11 starts.
Another chance to fade the Rodgers hype. This total is asking for a lot from Rodgers in his Jets debut. Rodgers is one of the greatest ever, but he hasn't been as prolific in recent seasons. He averaged only 217.4 yards per game last year and threw for 235 yards or more in only two of his last 11 starts. In those 11 games (dating back to Week 7), he's averaging 208.4 yards per game and has more games with fewer than 200 yards than 235 or more.
No, he did not have a Garrett Wilson in Green Bay last year, but it's not just Rodgers we have to consider. The Bills matter a bit, too. Buffalo allowed 235 yards passing or more in only five of its 18 games last year. One of those five saw Kenny Pickett rack up yards in garbage time as Buffalo won 38-3. Only one of those games was a road game (at the Chiefs against Patrick Mahomes) as the Bills defense allowed only 186.5 yards passing per game away from Buffalo. Sure, Rodgers and the Jets could make a statement tonight, but there aren't many reasons to bet on it happening.
Rays at Twins, 7:40 p.m. | Watch live: MLB.tv
- The Pick: Under 7.5 (-113)
- Key trend: The under is 29-18-2 when the Rays are favored on the road.
We're making a play on both the weather and the pitching matchup tonight. It appears summer is over in the Midwest, and The Great Cooling has begun. That's always better news for pitchers than hitters, and with tonight's forecast calling for temperatures in the 60s and winds blowing in slightly, it's even better.
Toss in the fact that Rays starter Tyler Glasnow has been dominant in limited time this season (if only he could stay healthy), plus Minnesota starter Sonny Gray's ground ball rate (47.4%) and control (7.9% walk rate), and I'm guessing runs will be difficult to come by in the Twin Cities this evening.
🔒 SportsLine Pick of the Day: If you're looking for a little more baseball action, the Projection Model has an A-graded play on the run line between the Milwaukee Brewers and Miami Marlins.
