Just one game separates the Titans, Chiefs, Packers and 49ers from stamping their ticket to Super Bowl LIV and a chance to win the Lombardi Trophy.
Of course, Tennessee is the outlier of a group that is mostly made up of top-two seeds. The Titans have been able to go on a historic run that has included two road wins against the New England Patriots in Foxborough on Wild Card Weekend and a stunning upset of the No. 1 seed Baltimore Ravens last week. Can they make it three in a row against the Chiefs in Arrowhead this week to get the Super Bowl or will Kansas City continue to ride their momentum off a 24-point comeback against the Texans? It certainly makes for some intriguing theater for the AFC Championship. As for the NFC Championship, Aaron Rodgers vs. Jimmy Garoppolo is enough to get a big bag of popcorn ready for that head-to-head.
In regards to my picks, the Divisional Round was kind as I went 3-1 ATS with the only blemish being Tennessee's win over Baltimore. As you'll see more in-depth in my breakdown below, we're no longer ignoring the team of destiny down in Nashville.
Wondering which teams will wind up in Super Bowl LIV? Pete Prisco and R.J. White join Will Brinson with their picks, gambling advice and more on the Pick Six Podcast. Listen below and be sure to subscribe for daily NFL goodness.
Before we get to the picks, here's where we stand heading into the weekend.
Picks record
Playoffs (ATS): 5-3
Regular season and Playoffs (ATS): 129-130-5
Tennessee Titans at Kansas City Chiefs (-7)
Sunday, 3:05 p.m. ET (CBS)
I picked against the Tennessee Titans last week against the Ravens and it bit me in the rear end as Mike Vrabel's team continued their road dominance this postseason with an upset win over the AFC's No. 1 seed. Yes, the Chiefs offense was able to flex its championship-caliber muscles with that 28-point outburst in the second quarter of their Divisional Round win over Houston after being down 24 points to start. Yes, they are the more talented team on paper. With all that said, however, the Titans have proven they can not only beat high-powered teams and they can do it on the road.
This Tennessee squad is built to beat a team like the Chiefs. First, K.C. has struggled against the run for the bulk of the year, which should be looked at promisingly for Derrick Henry. The Titans back have been other-worldly, averaging nearly six yards a carry this postseason on 377 total yards rushing over the past two games. If he can continue to find success on the ground, the Titans could take a page out of the Indianapolis Colts book in their win over the Chiefs in Week 5 where they rushed 45 times for 180 yards and dominated time of possession. Keeping Patrick Mahomes off the field will be critical and Tennessee has the tools to get that done.
When they do have to go head-to-head with Mahomes, the Titans defense has recently been able to bend, but not break. This playoffs, Tennessee has been stout in the red zone as New England and Baltimore's offense were a combined 2 of 7 in the red zone. As long as that trend continues and they limit K.C. to field goals, it should result in a trip to Miami for Tennessee.
I also give Mike Vrabel the slight coaching edge of Andy Reid in this playoff setting.
Pick: Titans 23-17 over Chiefs
Green Bay Packers at San Francisco 49ers (-7.5)
Sunday, 6:40 p.m. ET (FOX)
These two clubs met earlier in the regular season this year and San Francisco was able to handle Green Bay rather easily to the tune of 37-8, which included a 23-0 halftime score. While this game could be more competitive, I still see the same result coming about with the Niners being crowned NFC champs. San Fran's defense, to me, will be too much for Aaron Rodgers to take down. He was sacked five times in their previous meeting this year and held to just 104 passing yards. When you combine their dominance against Rodgers and the Packers quarterback's shaky history in the NFC Championship (1-2 record, 4:5 TD-INT), it makes one wonder if they'll be able to keep up. Even leaning on Aaron Jones and the running game may be hard for the Packers as the 49ers just shut down Dalvin Cook and the Vikings run game last week.
As for the 49ers offense, I like Jimmy Garoppolo to come up clutch in this game. He was able to complete 14 of his 20 throws against Green Bay earlier this season for 253 yards and two touchdowns, and I expect him to utilize his full complement of weapons in this game. I also like San Fran enough to lay the points in this one.
Pick: 49ers 33-20 over Packers