Welcome to the Tuesday edition of the Pick Six newsletter!
I have some big news: There are no more Monday night doubleheaders this season. There were a total of four of them this year as the final one went down last night, and it ended with a thud. First, the Vikings blew out the Bears 30-12, and then that was followed by the Falcons beating the Raiders 15-9.
The win by Atlanta actually provided some late drama with the Raiders throwing a Hail Mary on the final play (You can see it here), but that was about the only dramatic thing about the game.
We'll be handing out grades for both of those games today, plus we'll take a look at Prisco's latest Power Rankings and I'll be handing out my early picks for Week 16.
As always, here's your daily reminder to tell all your friends and neighbors to sign up for the newsletter. To get them signed up, all you have to do is click here.
1. Monday night grades: Vikings earn highest mark of Week 15
We hand out grades for every game each week and that includes the two games that went down on Monday night. Let's check out the grades from the doubleheader:
Bears-Vikings (Click here for our full recap)
- Bears takeaway: For the third week in a row, the Bears got shut out in the first half. The offense got off to a disastrous start with a failed fourth down at their own 39 and a lost fumble on their first two possessions, which led to a quick 10-0 lead for Minnesota. This offense isn't good enough to dig its way out of a hole like that. The Bears went 1 for 10 on third down and 0 for 2 on fourth down, and if those numbers had been different, this game might have been closer, but the bottom line is that the Bears didn't play well enough to win. This team has now lost eight straight games and it's hard to see them winning another one this season. Grade: F
- Vikings takeaway: The Vikings defense took control of this game in the first half with two fourth-down stops and a fumble recovery, and then the offense did the rest. Sam Darnold did a good job of spreading the ball around with Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison and T.J. Hockenson all finishing with at least 50 receiving yards. (Jefferson led the team with seven catches for 73 yards and a TD.) Aaron Jones was a human bulldozer for the Vikings, carrying the ball 18 times for 86 yards and a touchdown. Brian Flores called another defensive masterpiece with the Vikings shutting down the Bears offense on nearly every big play they ran in the game. With this win, the Vikings now control their own fate in the NFC North: If they win out, they'll win the division. Grade: A-
You can check out our full takeaways from Minnesota's win here.
Falcons-Raiders (Click here for our full recap)
- Falcons takeaway: The Falcons might officially have a Kirk Cousins problem. Cousins has been struggling for more than a month now and those struggles continued in Las Vegas on a night where he threw for just 112 yards with one touchdown and one interception. The one part of the Falcons offense that was working was giving the ball to Bijan Robinson, who carried the offense with 125 yards on the ground. A big reason the Falcons won is because they dominated on special teams with a blocked punt, a deflected punt and a blocked extra point. Also, Bradley Pinion might have been Atlanta's MVP: The Falcons punter pinned the Raiders inside their own 10-yard a total of three times, including one punt that led allowed the Falcons defense to pick up a safety. With Cousins struggling, the Falcons have to win with a strong defense, strong special teams play and a strong rushing attack, and that's what they did on Monday night, but they definitely have issues at QB and kicker that could keep this team from overtaking the Buccaneers in the NFC South. Grade: C+
- Raiders takeaway: With the Raiders down to their third-string QB, they couldn't afford to make any big mistakes, but those mistakes came anyway. The Raiders miscues started with a fumble on their opening possession, and they also gave up a safety in the second quarter and Desmond Ridder threw two fourth-quarter interceptions. As if that's not bad enough, the Falcons blocked an AJ Cole punt and deflected another punt, and those two miscues by the Raiders ended up leading to 10 points for Atlanta. Despite all those mistakes, the Raiders still had a chance to win, and when you're down to your third-string QB, that's all you can ask for. The Raiders are still playing hard, they're just not good enough to win games like this. Grade: C-
We also have plenty other takeaways from Atlanta's win, and you can check those out there.
As for the other 28 grades that we handed out in Week 15, you can check those out by clicking here.
2. Prisco's Week 16 Power Rankings: Lions fall out of top spot
For the first time in nearly a month, we have a new team at the top of Prisco's Power Rankings. The Lions were at No. 1 heading into Week 15, but after losing to the Bills, Prisco dropped them down and put a new team at the top.
With that in mind, let's check out Prisco's top five:
- Chiefs (Up one spot from last week)
- Eagles (Up one spot from last week)
- Bills (Up two spots from last week)
- Lions (Down three spots from last week)
- Vikings (Down one spots from last week)
I'm not going to spoil the rest of the Power Rankings here, but I am going to give you a few nuggets. Here's what has changed since Prisco's last Power Rankings:
- The biggest jump this week went to the Dallas Cowboys. They were actually underdogs against the Panthers in Week 15, but that didn't slow them down. The Cowboys steamrolled Carolina 30-14 and thanks to the win, Prisco moved them up four spots from 26th to 22nd.
- The biggest jump in the AFC went to the New York Jets. Aaron Rodgers led his team to a wild win over the Jaguars and that led Prisco to giving the Jets the biggest bump in the AFC. The Jets moved up three spots from 30th to 27th.
- The biggest tumble this week went to the Seattle Seahawks. Not only did the Seahawks fall out of first place following a Week 15 loss to the Packers, but Geno Smith also suffered a knee injury. Those two factors caused Prisco to drop the Seahawks five spots, from 10th down to 15th.
- Finally, let's get the bottom of the Power Rankings. For the second straight week, the title of the worst team in the NFL belongs to the Las Vegas Raiders. The Raiders' losing streak hit 10 games with a loss to the Falcons in a Monday night game where they scored a season-low nine points.
If you want to know where your favorite team ended up in Prisco's Week 16 Power Rankings, be sure to click here. If you want to argue with Prisco over his rankings, you can do that on Twitter by clicking here. I argue with him all the time about everything.
3. Breech's Week 16 NFL picks: Ravens and Chargers pick up big wins
Apparently, I just needed some Thanksgiving turkey to get my picks going, because I've been on fire since Thanksgiving. Since Week 13, I've gone 36-9 with my picks, but my turkey is now all gone, so we'll see if that means my luck has run out.
With that in mind, let's get to three of my picks for Week 16:
- Denver (9-5) at L.A. Chargers (8-6): The Broncos have a rookie quarterback and if I know one thing about rookie quarterbacks, it's that they always seem to hit the wall late in the season, and Bo Nix hasn't just hit the wall, he's crashed into it going 90 mph in a car without airbags. Nix has five interceptions over his past two games and I think we might see him add to that total in this game. PICK: Chargers 20-17 over Broncos
- Houston (9-5) at Kansas City (13-1): There's a chance that Patrick Mahomes could miss this game due to an injury, but I don't care if he plays, I'm taking the Chiefs either way. The Chiefs have won 13 games this year without topping 30 points a single time, which tells me that their defense is good enough to carry them to a win, and that's exactly what I expect to happen in this Saturday afternoon showdown. PICK: Chiefs 23-20 over Texans
- Pittsburgh (10-4) at Baltimore (9-5): The Ravens have gone EIGHT STRAIGHT GAMES without hitting the 20-point mark against the Steelers. Whenever the Steelers defense goes up against the Ravens offense, it's like watching the Harlem Globetrotters go up against the Washington Generals. But I think things might change this week. T.J. Watt is banged up and after watching the Steelers defense get bullied by the Eagles, I think the Ravens might actually be able to have some success against them. PICK: Ravens 24-17 over Steelers
If you want to check out the rest of my picks for Week 16, be sure to click here.
4. Lions ravaged by injuries: Three starters out for season after getting hurt in Week 15
The Lions currently hold the top seed in the NFC, but they might have trouble holding on to that spot. The Lions have been slammed by injuries this year and their bad luck continued in Week 15.
Here's a look at Detroit's current injury situation:
- David Montgomery is out for the year. The Lions running back sprained his MCL and will miss the rest of the season, coach Dan Campbell announced on Monday. Through 15 weeks, Montgomery led the team in rushing touchdowns with 12 and was second on the team in rushing with 775 yards. The Lions still have Jahmyr Gibbs, but part of what makes Gibbs so good is that the running back-by-committee approach with Montgomery kept both players relatively fresh.
- Alim McNeill out for the year. The Lions defensive tackle tore his ACL on Sunday and will now miss the rest of the season. The loss of McNeill means that the Lions have now lost the two players who have the most sacks this year for them. Even though he hasn't played since Week 5, Aidan Hutchinson still leads the team with 7.5 while McNeill ranks second with 3.5.
- Carlton Davis to miss some time. The Lions cornerback fractured his jaw on Sunday and will miss multiple weeks, but the only good news here for the Lions is that he's not expected to be out for the season.
After Week 16 is played, the Lions will have had 18 players on the defensive side of the ball miss at least one game due to injury and a total of 18 players will have spent time on injured reserve. If you want to see how ugly things have gotten, you can see the full injury list here.
The Lions defense struggled with the Bills and things won't get any easier with the 49ers (Week 17) and Vikings (Week 18) still on deck this season.
Although the sky appears to be falling in Detroit, Dan Campbell would like you to know that that's not the case. The Lions coach gave an expletive-filled pep talk on live radio Tuesday morning, and you can read about it here.
5. NFL playoff picture heading into Week 16
With only three weeks left to play in the NFL season, now seems like a good time to break down the playoff picture, so that's exactly what we're going to do today.
Here's a look at the top-seven teams from each conference:
AFC
1. Chiefs (Clinched AFC West): 13-1
2. Bills (Clinched AFC East): 11-3
3. Steelers (AFC North leader): 10-4
4. Texans (Clinched AFC South): 9-5
5. Ravens: 9-5
6. Broncos: 9-5
7. Chargers: 8-6
First teams out: Colts (6-8), Dolphins (6-8), Bengals (6-8)
Clinched division and playoff spot: Chiefs, Bills, Texans
Clinched playoff spot: Steelers
The AFC playoff race isn't quite over, but it's getting close. The Chargers and Broncos play each other on Thursday night and a win by Denver will clinch the Broncos' first playoff berth since 2015. The biggest game of the week in the AFC will be going down on Saturday in Baltimore where the Ravens will be hosting the Steelers. If the Ravens win, they'll clinch a playoff berth and put themselves right back in the running for the AFC North title.
The key number here for the wild-card contenders is 10: If the Ravens, Chargers or Broncos get to 10 wins, that will put them in the postseason since the Colts, Dolphins and Bengals can't win more than nine games.
NFC
1. Lions (NFC North leader): 12-2
2. Eagles (NFC East leader): 12-2
3. Rams (NFC West leader): 8-6
4. Buccaneers (NFC South leader): 8-6
5. Vikings: 12-2
6. Packer: 10-4
7. Commanders: 9-5
First teams out: Seahawks (8-6), Falcons (6-7), Cardinals (7-7)
Clinched playoff spot: Lions, Eagles, Vikings
The loss by the Lions on Sunday has suddenly added some serious drama to the NFC playoff race. The Vikings are now in a position to steal the NFC North and possibly even the No. 1 overall seed from Detroit. And let's not forget about the Eagles, who also have a solid shot at earning the top seed. Speaking of the Eagles, they can clinch the NFC East in Week 16 with a win over the Commanders.
The biggest change this week is in the third spot. The Seahawks were there heading into Week 16, but that spot now belongs to the Rams, who took over first place in the NFC West.
When it comes to the wild-card race, there probably won't be much drama, but with three of the four divisions still completely up for grabs and the top seed still in play, the stretch run should be a fun one in the NFC.
If you want a full look at the NFL playoff picture, we've got it right here.
6. Extra points: Odell Beckham Jr. hits free agency
It was a busy 24 hours in the NFL, and since it's nearly impossible to keep track of everything that happened, I went ahead and put together a roundup for you.
- Odell Beckham Jr. clears waivers. The veteran receiver, who was cut on Friday, has cleared waivers, which means he's now free to sign with any team. We made a list of possible landing spots and you can check those out here. Two of his former teams -- the Rams and Ravens -- are both in playoff contention, so they could make some sense.
- Ravens tell Diontae Johnson to stay home. Speaking of the Ravens, they won't have Diontae Johnson this week and that's because "they mutually agreed" to excuse him from team activities this week. This comes one week after he served a suspension for conduct detrimental to the team. It seems unlikely that he'll be playing for the Ravens at any point over the final few weeks.
- Chiefs cut Clyde Edwards-Helaire. After five seasons and two Super Bowl wins, the Chiefs have decided to cut ties with Edwards-Helaire. The running back was a first-round pick in 2020 and he made a huge contribution during his rookie year with a team-leading 803 rushing yards. However, his usage steadily went down over the past three years and it hit rock bottom this year with CEH playing in zero games through 15 weeks. You can read more about CEH here.
- Former NFL MVP says Chiefs should sit Mahomes this week. As of today, it's still unclear how serious Patrick Mahomes' ankle injury is, and at this point, no one knows if he's going to play on Saturday against the Texans. However, Matt Ryan did offer an interesting take on the situation. The former NFL MVP said the Chiefs should sit him this week, which would give his ankle 10 days to rest. That means Mahomes wouldn't play again until Christmas, and then after that, his ankle would get another 10 days to rest before Week 18. It's a pretty solid idea. You can see Ryan's full comments here.
- Episode 3 of 'Hard Knocks' is tonight. The HBO show is covering the entire AFC North for the in-season version of "Hard Knocks" and the third episode will be airing tonight at 9 p.m. ET on HBO. Joe Burrow had a heated exchange with Zac Taylor during Cincinnati's win on Sunday and it will be interesting to see if the show covers that. Also, next week's episode will definitely be must-see TV because it will be covering the lead up to this week's Steelers-Ravens showdown on Saturday.
