The final game of Week 9 pits the New York Jets against the Los Angeles Chargers on "Monday Night Football."
New York has somewhat surprisingly won three in a row, with its defense doing most of the heavy lifting. The Chargers finally got back in the win column last week to improve to 3-4, but they're still on the outside of the playoff picture and looking in.
Can the Chargers get back to .500, or will the Jets keep their streak alive? We'll find out soon enough. Before we break down the matchup, here's a look at how you can watch the game.
How to watch
Date: Monday, Nov. 6 | Time: 8:15 p.m. ET
Location: MetLife Stadium (East Rutherford, New Jersey)
TV: ABC/ESPN | Stream: fubo
Follow: CBS Sports App
Odds: Chargers -3.5, O/U 40 (via Sportsline consensus odds)
When the Chargers have the ball
L.A. is coming off one of its best offensive performances of the season, a game during which Justin Herbert repeatedly peppered Austin Ekeler and Keenan Allen with underneath targets to move the chains against the Bears. The Chargers might be wise to use a similar strategy against the Jets, who employ one of the NFL's best perimeter cornerback duos in Sauce Gardner and D.J. Reed.
The vulnerabilities in the New York defense are short and over the middle, which is where Ekeler and Allen do the majority of their work. With Mike Williams out for the year and Josh Palmer out for this game, L.A. is down to rookies Quentin Johnston and Derius Davis as its primary outside receivers, and the Chargers seem highly unlikely to find much success with those matchups.
Using a short-pass-oriented game plan also helps neutralize the Jets pass rush, and can work as an extension of the run game. The Chargers have been absolutely dreadful running the ball since their 233-yard explosion against the Dolphins back in Week 1. Ekeler was out for three of those games but he's been back for the last three and the Chargers have still managed a mere 3.3 yards per carry during those contests -- the same average they had with Josh Kelly filling in for Ekeler from Weeks 2 through 4.
The Jets have actually allowed teams to move the ball on the ground a little bit, yielding 4.3 yards per carry -- and 1.51 per carry before contact (12th-worst in the NFL, per TruMedia). New York has also allowed an above-average rate of explosive runs (8.4% of carries), so if Ekeler or Kelley can manage to break through the line of scrimmage, there could be opportunities for big gains. This team desperately misses center Corey Linsley, who has been on injured reserve all year with a heart issue.
New York's best shot at finding stops here is through generating pressure on Herbert, and perhaps by forcing turnovers. Herbert has generally done a good job of avoiding sacks throughout his career and has a low interception rate, but with his weaponry so depleted he might find himself throwing into even tighter windows than usual. New York has forced multiple turnovers in four of its seven games, including three of its four wins.
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When the Jets have the ball
New York has won three consecutive games, but only put together a strong offensive performance in one of them. In wins over the Eagles and Giants, the Jets combined for just 33 points and averaged a mere 247.5 total yards per contest.
Luckily for the Jets, the Chargers let pretty much everybody move the ball however they want. So, the sledding shouldn't be quite as tough this time around. The Chargers check in 27th in FTN's DVOA, with the league's 20th-ranked unit against the run and 29th against the pass. Their defensive line also ranks just 23rd in Adjusted Line Yards, indicating that opponents have generally been able to get a strong push up front to generate yards for their backs.
That plays into the Jets' desire to run a Breece Hall-centric offense. After playing a maximum of 49% of the snaps through the Jets' first four games, Hall has reemerged as the clear lead back, handling 52%, 66%, and 64% of the snaps while rushing 46 times for 233 yards and two touchdowns, and catching 14 passes for 147 additional yards and another score. Hall working against L.A.'s linebackers in space could yield profitable matchups.
The issue for the Jets comes when Zach Wilson tries to look and throw the ball downfield. That's been the best way to beat the Chargers, but Wilson has yet to prove himself consistently capable of pushing the ball. Wilson ranks 24th among 32 qualified passers in explosives per dropback, according to TruMedia, and is just 8 of 20 for 239 yards and two interceptions on throws of at least 20 air yards. Garrett Wilson should have favorable matchups against the Chargers' cornerbacks, but counting on Wilson to deliver the ball on time and on target seems unwise.
That's especially true considering the Chargers have been getting better performances out of their edge rush duo of Joey Bosa and Khalil Mack of late. The Jets are still banged up along the offensive line, and Wilson could be under even more pressure than usual.
Prediction: Chargers 23, Jets 13
The Jets have escaped their last two games with victories despite dreadful performances from their offense. That won't cut it against the Chargers, where Herbert, Allen, and Ekeler can find vulnerabilities in their defense.
I like my pick for this game, but you might like R.J. White's better. He's our gambling guru over at SportsLine.com and he's been on roll with his Chargers predictions, going 26-10 on his last 36 picks. Anyone who has followed him is WAY UP! If you want to check out White's pick, you can do that right here.
