Welcome to the Friday edition of the Pick Six newsletter!
I hope everyone makes big plans with their family and friends this weekend, because this is the final weekend without NFL football until February. After this weekend, there are no plans, unless those plans involve watching football. I told my 4-year-old we could do anything she wants this weekend, and she chose Chuck E. Cheese, which could be a problem, because I'm not even sure those still exist (OK, so I just Google'd it and it turns out they do, so I guess I'll be at Chuck E. Cheese all weekend).
Before we get to today's newsletter, I would like to pass along one note: There WILL be a newsletter on Monday (Labor Day), and you're definitely going to want to read it because that's when I'll be unveiling ALL of my predictions for the entire 2024 NFL season. However, you probably don't care about what's coming Monday. You care about what's coming today, so let's get to the rundown.
As always, here's your daily reminder to tell all your friends to sign up for the newsletter. To get them signed up, all you have to do is click here.
1. Details on Brandon Aiyuk's new contract, plus how the Broncos almost factored in to the drama
After a full offseason of drama with Brandon Aiyuk, the 49ers finally got their disgruntled receiver under contract on Thursday, and the absurd thing is that Aiyuk apparently agreed to a deal that the 49ers have had on the table since Aug. 12, according to ESPN. The 49ers didn't up their offer to get things done yesterday, Aiyuk just caved and finally accepted the offer that the 49ers had given him more than two weeks ago.
Here are four things you need to know:
- Aiyuk is getting $30 million per year. The 26-year-old landed a four-year, $120 million extension that includes $76 million in guaranteed money. Aiyuk is now tied with Tyreek Hill for the title of fifth-highest paid receiver in the NFL.
- Aiyuk could have left town, but decided to stay. The Browns and Patriots both had generous offers on the table for Aiyuk, but the receiver didn't want to go to Cleveland or New England, so a deal didn't get done. The 49ers also worked out a deal with the Steelers, but that deal also fell through in the end. We broke down why the Steelers might actually be better off without Aiyuk, and you can check that out here.
- Broncos were the deciding factor in Aiyuk NOT getting traded to Pittsburgh. If the 49ers were going to trade Aiyuk, they wanted someone to replace him, and they had their eye on someone over the past month. According to The Athletic, the 49ers tried to make a trade with Denver for Courtland Sutton and if that deal would have happened, then San Francisco would have shipped Aiyuk off to Pittsburgh in what would have essentially been a three-way trade. The 49ers offered a third-round pick to the Broncos, but they said no. You can read more about that fun twist here.
- Deebo Samuel's future now up in the air in San Francisco. Former NFL agent Joel Corry thinks it's unlikely that the 49ers keep both Samuel and Aiyuk in 2025, especially since Brock Purdy will be in line to get an extension after the 2024 season. With Aiyuk getting a new deal, Corry thinks Samuel will be the odd man out. "Welcome to the Deebo Samuel farewell tour," Corry wrote. "I've always thought either Samuel or Brandon Aiyuk would be with the 49ers in 2025, not both. 49ers will save $9,057,529 in salary cap space by trading Samuel in 2025. It's a $24,200,529 cap number versus $15.143 million in dead money." You can see our full breakdown of Samuel's situation here.
Although Aiyuk is now under contract, the drama still isn't over in San Francisco. The team's All-Pro tackle, Trent Williams, is still holding out and he's reportedly ready to miss games if the 49ers don't give him a raise. The team has just 10 days until their season opener against the Jets, and if they want Williams to play in that game, they're likely going to need to get a new deal done at some point in the next few days.
Williams missed two games during the 2023 season and the 49ers lost both of them.
2. Ranking the teams most likely to go from worst to first in 2024
One thing that makes the NFL so entertaining every year is the fact that it's one of the most unpredictable sports on the planet, and nothing proves that more than the league's ability to produce at least one team every season that goes from worst to first.
Last year, that team was the Houston Texans. After finishing with an ugly record of 3-13-1 in 2022, the Texans rebounded in a big way in 2023 by winning the AFC South., which should give some hope to every team that finished at the bottom of its division last season.
So which team has the best chance to be this year's Texans?
Here are the rankings I came up with (If you feel like yelling at me on Twitter about how bad the rankings are, feel free to do so here).
Teams with the best chance to go from worst to first:
1. Bengals
2. Bears
3. Chargers
4. Commanders
5. Panthers
6. Titans
7. Cardinals
8. Patriots
If you're wondering how I came up with these rankings, then you're going to have to read my full story, which you can do by clicking here.
3. Ranking the biggest challengers to a Chiefs three-peat
For the past two years, the Chiefs have steamrolled their way through the NFL, and now, they're on the cusp of doing the impossible: winning three Super Bowls in a row. No team in NFL history has ever won three in a row, but the Chiefs could make it happen unless someone can step up and beat them.
So who's the biggest challenger to Kansas City's three-peat bid? Glad you asked. Cody Benjamin answered that question today by ranking the top challengers. Let's take a look at the top three teams in his rankings:
1. 49ers. "It's the easy answer, but that doesn't mean it's the wrong one. ... The health of key weapons Christian McCaffrey and Deebo Samuel is always worth monitoring, as is the contractual status of Brandon Aiyuk (Note: It's since been resolved), but the 2023 runner-ups remain one of the NFL's most balanced teams, complete with a nearly unmatched schemer."
2. Bengals. "While everyone flocks to predict another Ravens run or a big leap by the quarterback-shuffling Pittsburgh Steelers, the Bengals are busy preparing to reintroduce the Joe Burrow-Ja'Marr Chase-Tee Higgins triumvirate to the NFL. Neither Burrow nor Higgins was fully healthy in 2023, and while contract talks loom over Chase, he's not going anywhere."
3. Texans. "Houston could benefit from a wide-open AFC South, but the biggest reason the Texans should be on everyone's radar is second-year quarterback C.J. Stroud, who flashed MVP stuff in 2023. As long as his front and outside weapons stay healthy, he should be primed to sling it again. DeMeco Ryans' defense, meanwhile, should be even better in support. ... The short- and long-term future looks bright."
Cody actually ranked 10 teams, and if you want to see who else made the list, you can see his full story here.
4. NFL best bets: Looking at our top over/under picks for the 2024 season
Between now and the start of the season, we're going to be offering a lot of predictions, picks and best bets, and that starts right now with our annual over/under picks. Jordan Dajani rounded up 13 of our NFL writers here at CBS Sports and we all offered our two best over/under bets for the 2024 season and we're going to cover five of those bets here.
- John Breech: Lions OVER 10.5 (-130). "The Lions won 12 games last season and I think their roster is actually even better this year, so I won't be surprised if they win at least 12 games again. Also, the Lions get to play 13 of their first 14 games indoors, which seems like a good thing for a team that that seems to thrive when playing inside."
- Pete Prisco: Packers OVER 9.5 (-160). "This team is loaded and we saw what Jordan Love can do in the second half of last season. The change in defensive coordinators will really help. They are the team to beat in their division in my mind."
- Bryan DeArdo: Chargers UNDER 9 (-135). "Is someone seeing something I'm not? For whatever reason, the Chargers' win total is set at nine games despite an unproven receiving corps, a new head coach who hasn't coached in the NFL since 2014 and play in a division that includes the two-time defending Super Bowl champions (along with a Broncos team that I expect will be better than most expect)."
- Jordan Dajani: Titans OVER 6.5 (+115). "I'll bite. Don't you think with the additions of L'Jarius Snead, Chidobe Awuzie, Ernest Jones, T'Vondre Sweat, Quandre Diggs, Jamal Adams, Calvin Ridley, Tony Pollard, Tyler Boyd, JC Latham and Lloyd Cushenberry the Titans, who went 6-11 last year, can improve on their 2023 record by just ONE win?"
- Will Brinson: Bills OVER 10.5 (+135). "Buffalo is getting the same treatment in 2024 as the Chiefs got in 2022 when they traded away Tyreek Hill. Stefon Diggs' absence hurts but it might end up being a net positive for the locker room and for turning Josh Allen into a better overall distributor of the football."
You can check out all 24 of our best bets here.
5. NFL players choose surprise name as most overrated QB in the league
If you asked me to name the most overrated quarterback in the NFL right now, I know one person I wouldn't name, and that's Josh Allen. However, it seems that NFL players don't feel the same way.
In a recent poll conducted by ESPN, 103 anonymous NFL players were asked to name the most overrated quarterback in the league, and Allen was the top answer. The Bills quarterback got 11 votes, which put him slightly ahead of Tua Tagovailoa and Jalen Hurts, who both received 10 votes.
Although Allen got ranked as the most overrated QB, there are more than a few players out there who respect his game. In the same poll, players were asked to rank the top three quarterbacks in the NFL and Allen actually fared pretty well there.
Here's how the players ranked the top quarterbacks:
1. Patrick Mahomes
2. Lamar Jackson
3. Joe Burrow
4. Josh Allen
One other fascinating aspect from this poll is that a Super Bowl-winning quarterback was voted the most underrated QB. Matthew Stafford tied with Brock Purdy for the most votes in the underrated category. They both got 14 votes while no other QB got more than seven votes.
You can check out the full poll here. Also, if you want to know how Josh Allen RESPONDED to being voted the most overrated quarterback, we've got you covered here. In related news, Allen was also voted the best trash-talker, which he seemed to be proud of.
6. Extra points: Dolphins head coach gets extension
It's been a busy 24 hours in the NFL, and since it's nearly impossible to keep track of everything that happened, I went ahead and put together a roundup for you.
- Mike McDaniel gets extension from Dolphins. After watching McDaniel lead Miami to the playoffs in back-to-back seasons, the Dolphins have rewarded him with a three-year extension. McDaniel's original deal with the team was slated to expire in 2025, but he's now under contract through 2028.
- Prescott extension before start of season seeming less likely. Jerry Jones seemed to hint on Thursday that the Cowboys might not be able to get an extension done before next week. "You could easily say, if you hadn't seen it by now, you haven't seen it," Jones said. Prescott then had what was possibly the best response ever. "I stopped listening to things that [Jerry] says to the media a long time ago. Doesn't really hold weight with me," Prescott said. You can read more about the comments from Prescott and Jones here.
- Ja'Marr Chase sits out another practice. For the second straight day, Chase attended practice, but he didn't participate. If Chase is still sitting out of practices come next week, that could put his availability in jeopardy for the season opener against New England. As we mentioned yesterday, Chase is looking for a contract that pays him one penny more than Justin Jefferson (Details here), and if the Bengals aren't willing to give that to him, it could create some drama next week.
- Rashee Rice likely eligible to play in Week 1. There had been some speculation that the Chiefs receiver might be suspended to start of the season, but it doesn't look like that's going to happen. The NFL is going let Rice's legal situation play out before dishing out any possible punishment, which makes it unlikely that he'll be suspended this year, if he gets suspended at all. You can get the full details on Rice here.
- Jets GM gives update on Haason Reddick. It's looking more and more like Reddick won't be on the field for New York's opener against the 49ers. Reddick has been holding out because he wants a new contract. The Jets want him to come in before they think about doing it, but he wants it done before he reports to the team. It's a classic "chicken and egg" situation. Jets GM Joe Douglas said his position on the matter hasn't changed. "I think we've been clear from the outset: Let's get here and then let's talk," Douglas said, via ESPN. Reddick, Trent Williams and Ja'Marr Chase are the biggest names to keep an eye on to see if they actually play in Week 1.
- Ravens to debut purple helmet in Week 10. For the first time in franchise history, the Ravens will be wearing a purple helmet and the new look will be making its debut for a Thursday night game on Nov. 7 against the Bengals. If you haven't seen the new purple helmet, you can check it out here.
- Eagles won't be wearing green in Brazil. The Eagles are the home team for the Brazil game this year, and since it's frowned upon to wear green in the stadium they're playing in (Corinthians Arena), the team has decided not to wear green. Instead, the Eagles will wear their black helmet with a white jersey and black pants (The Eagles are the home team in the game, so they got to pick their uniform combo). On the other hand, the Packers will be wearing their standard green jersey with gold pants.
