The Buffalo Bills will try to avoid a monumental upset when they host the Miami Dolphins on Sunday in the 2023 playoffs on CBS and Paramount+. The AFC East rivals split their two regular-season meetings, but the Dolphins (9-8) were in danger of missing the NFL playoff bracket 2023 after a five-game losing streak. They broke the slide with an 11-6 victory against the Jets in Week 18, but will remain without starting quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, who has a concussion. The Bills have won seven in a row, beating the Patriots 35-23 last Sunday. Josh Allen has led the way for Buffalo, which has one of the league's top offenses and a defense that doesn't allow many points.
Kickoff is set for 1 p.m. ET. Caesars Sportsbook lists Buffalo as a 14-point favorite in its latest Dolphins vs. Bills odds, while the over/under for total points scored is 44. Before you make any Bills vs. Dolphins picks or NFL playoff bets, make sure you check out the NFL Super Wild Card Weekend predictions from SportsLine's resident Dolphins expert, Larry Hartstein. You can stream the game on Paramount+, which you can try free for seven days.
A former lead writer for Covers and The Linemakers, Hartstein combines a vast network of Vegas sources with an analytical approach he honed while working for Pro Football Focus. He entered the 2022 NFL season 427-344 all-time on NFL side picks (plus $3,764 for $100 players), including 394-330 against the spread. Hartstein went 68-50 ATS and 8-3 on money-line plays last season for a profit of $1,552.
In addition, Hartstein has a strong feel for Miami's strengths and weaknesses and is 26-14-1 on his last 41 picks in Dolphins games, returning $1,044 for $100 bettors. Anyone who has followed him is way up.
Now, Hartstein has taken a close look at Dolphins vs. Bills and just revealed his expert picks and predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see his picks. Here are several NFL odds and betting trends for Bills vs. Dolphins:
- Dolphins vs. Bills spread: Buffalo -14
- Dolphins vs. Bills over/under: 44 points
- Dolphins vs. Bills money line: Miami +650, Buffalo -1000
- MIA: Dolphins are 21-13-2 against the spread in division games over the past five seasons
- BUF: Bills are 34-23-4 ATS as favorites under Sean McDermott (since 2017)
- Dolphins vs. Bills picks: See picks here
- Dolphins vs. Bills live stream: Paramount+
Why the Bills can cover
Double-digit underdogs are 7-1 against the spread all-time in NFL Wild Card round, and Buffalo is the largest favorite since the format began. That's because they rank in the top 10 on both sides of the ball and face a team with a rookie seventh-rounder at quarterback. Allen leads the NFL's second-best overall offense (398 yards per game) and the Bills also are second in scoring offense (28.4 points per contest) and scoring defense (17.8). The Dolphins scored more than 21 points once over their last seven games and are 3-7-1 ATS in their past 11 visits to Buffalo.
Buffalo has won eight of the past nine meetings by a combined score of 309-173. Allen has 4,283 passing yards and 746 rushing and has accounted for 43 touchdowns. Receiver Stefon Diggs is fifth in the league with 1,429 receiving yards and should be able to exploit a Dolphins defense that ranks 27th against the pass (235 yards per game). Allen had 704 passing yards, six TD passes and no interceptions in the two matchups during the regular season. The Dolphins also allow 23.5 points per contest (24th), and the Bills have 27 takeaways, while Miami has just 14. See which team to pick here.
Why the Dolphins can cover
The underdog is 4-1-1 against the spread in the past six meetings and Miami is 5-1 ATS in division games this season. The Dolphins have one of the league's best passing offenses and while they will surely miss Tagovailoa, receivers Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle are both big-time playmakers. Hill is second in the NFL with 1,710 receiving yards, while Waddle has 1,356 and averages more than 18 per reception. The offense is fourth in passing yards per game (265), sixth in total yards (364) and 11th in scoring (23.4). Miami also is second in yards per play at 6.1.
The Dolphins blitz at the second-highest rate (38%) and have 40 sacks, so they should be able to put pressure on Bills quarterback Josh Allen. They also rank fourth against the run, yielding 103 yards per game, so they will attempt to make the Bills one-dimensional. The two meetings this season were decided by a total of five points, and Miami has the confidence from being one of the three teams to beat Buffalo this season. See which team to pick here.
How to make NFL Playoffs or Dolphins vs. Bills picks
Hartstein has broken down this matchup from all sides, and he is leaning under on the point total. He also has discovered a critical X-factor that has him jumping all over one side of the spread. He's only sharing his Bills vs. Dolphins pick, and the rest of his expert NFL analysis, at SportsLine.
So who wins Bills vs. Dolphins in Sunday's NFL Wild Card matchup? And which critical X-factor makes one side of the spread a must-back? Visit SportsLine now to see Larry Hartstein's Bills vs. Dolphins picks and analysis, all from the NFL expert who's 26-14 on his last 41 picks involving Miami, and find out. Don't forget to stream the game on Paramount+ with a seven-day free trial.
