Dolphins-Bills line soars with Tua Tagovailoa out: Miami makes NFL history as largest wild-card round underdog

Oddsmakers aren't giving the Dolphins much of a chance on Super Wild Card Weekend

By Garrett Podell

Jan 15, 2023 at 12:56 pm ET • 2 min read

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Following the news of Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa being ruled out for their Super Wild Card Weekend playoff game at the second-seeded Buffalo Bills, Miami's chances of victory appeared to drop from slim to almost none. The Bills are now 14-point favorites, making the Dolphins the biggest underdogs in NFL wild-card round history, since the round began in 1978.

Largest favorites in wild-card history (since 1978)

Season	Favorite	Spread	Opponent
2022	Bills	-14	Dolphins
2021	Chiefs	-12*	Steelers
2020	Saints	-11*	Bears
2016	Steelers	-11*	Dolphins
2012	Packers	-10.5*	Vikings
2011	Saints	-10.5*	Lions
2007	Chargers	-10.5*	Titans
1996	49ers	-10.5*	Eagles

* Favorite covered the spread

The increase in point spread aligns with the Dolphins' stark quarterback production between Tagovailoa and his backups, Teddy Bridgewater and seventh-round rookie Skylar Thompson. Miami averaged 6.5 yards per play when Tagovailoa started, the highest team yards per play with a starting quarterback this season among passers with 10 or more starts. The Dolphins' figure in that category drops to 5.2 yards per play when Bridgewater or Thompson have started in 2022.

Dolphins by starting QB this season

	Tua Tagovailoa	Bridgewater/Thompson
W-L	8-5	1-3
PPG	25.5	16.3
Yards/Play	6.5*	5.2

* Highest by any starting QB this season (min. 10 starts)

With the Dolphins being a 14-point underdog, it means Miami is laying the most points in a playoff game since the 1998 divisional round at the Denver Broncos (+13.5). Dan Marino's Dolphins were pummeled by John Elway's eventual Super Bowl champion Broncos in that contest, 38-3. Sunday also marks Miami's largest spread as an underdog in a playoff game since the 1970 AFL/NFL merger.

On the other side of this matchup, the Bills are the first team to be favored by 13 or more points in a playoff game since the 2017 Patriots. The eventual AFC champions, were 13.5-point favorites in the divisional round against the Tennessee Titans, a team they ended up beating 35-14. Buffalo additionally stands as the first team other than the Patriots to be favored by 13 or more points in a playoff game since the 2001 Rams against the Patriots in the Super Bowl. That upset win ended up being New England's first of six Super Bowl wins with quarterback Tom Brady and head coach Bill Belichick.

Favorites of 13+ points in NFL playoffs since 2000 season

Season	Favorite	Line vs. Opponent
2001	Rams	-14 vs Patriots
2007	Patriots	-13.5 vs Jaguars
2007	Patriots	-14 vs Chargers
2011	Patriots	-13.5 vs Broncos
2016	Patriots	-16 vs Texans
2017	Patriots	-13.5 vs Titans

However, in order for the Bills to have cracked the top five largest playoff point spreads since at least 1952, they needed to see their line increase at least 1.5 more points. The two biggest spreads were both Super Bowls: 49ers -19 vs. Chargers in Super Bowl XXIX (49-26 win), and Colts -18 vs. Jets in Super Bowl III (16-7 loss).

Largest NFL playoff spreads since at least 1952

Season	Favorite	Line vs Opponent
1994	49ers	-19 vs Chargers
1968	Colts	-18 vs Jets
1998	Vikings	-16.5 vs Cardinals
2016	Patriots	-16 vs Texans
1994	49ers	-15.5 vs Bears

If the Dolphins somehow come away with a victory up in Buffalo on Sunday afternoon, CBS Sports play-by-play announcer Jim Nantz will have to come up with his equivalent to Al Michaels' "Do you believe in miracles? Yes!" call during Team USA hockey's run to the gold medal in the 1980 Winter Olympics, because Miami winning would be tied for the second-biggest upset in a playoff game during the Super Bowl Era.