Halloween is now long gone but the Dallas Cowboys are still stuck in a horror movie, and Ezekiel Elliott himself can't seem to escape Michael Meyers. They had a brief respite from their slow 2020 death when they defeated the Minnesota Vikings in impressive fashion in Week 11, in a game that saw Elliott become a key reason for the win with his first 100-yard performance of the season, but four days later they were roundly thumped by the Washington Football Team to land at 3-8 on the season and in sole possession of the fourth seat in the NFC East.
They'll now potentially get a mini-bye by virtue of the current COVID-19 outbreak within the Baltimore Ravens organization, and when that matchup does take place -- presumably on Monday, Dec. 7, but that might revert back to Thursday, Dec. 3, if the Ravens matchup with the Steelers is moved again -- they'll need to decide how to beginning finishing the season for Elliott.
On one note, the Cowboys feel because they're still in the running to win the abysmal NFC East, so they'll likely continue playing the two-time NFL rushing champ until they mathematically aren't. And while the reality is they could figure out a way to take the division, it's now a risk versus reward formula they must focus on. In other words, is it worth it to risk exposing Elliott continually going forward -- now behind an offensive line that'll be without perennial All-Pro Zack Martin for multiple weeks down the stretch due to a calf injury? Or should they drastically peel back his reps to help protect him for the 2021 reboot under Mike McCarthy??
For my money -- or rather for $90 million of their own -- the answer has to be the latter.
Not only has Elliott seen a step back in his production because of an injury-ravaged offense that will now be without Martin, but also one that's long been without two-time Pro Bowl quarterback Dak Prescott, perennial All-Pro left tackle Tyron Smith, starting right tackle La'El Collins and starting tight end Blake Jarwin, fueling mental errors that revolve mostly around him trying to do too much, too often. His lost fumble in Week 12 against Washington was his fifth of the season and ended a streak of four games in which he didn't fumble once, having cleaned up the issue for roughly a month before it reappeared on Sunday. While it's quite possible Elliott could again cease the fumbles and go on to rush for more than 1,000 yards, the Cowboys would like to see more of backup Tony Pollard -- now being a great time to put that plan into action.
For all of the mental mistakes he's made as a returner, Pollard has come on strong the last several weeks in the offensive backfield, including a marked improvement in pass protection. Elliott is the franchise RB for both now and later, and that's not debatable within the organization, but the more the Cowboys refine Pollard the better their chances of finally establishing themselves as having one of the best RB tandems in the sport.
It's something owner Jerry Jones failed to land with the DeMarco Murray-Lance Dunbar dynamic and has been chasing since Felix Jones and Tashard Choice proved themselves worthy complements to Marion Barber in the 2000s.
Pollard logged 199 offensive snaps in 15 games as a rookie and is already five snaps from matching that tally through 11 games in Year 2, and after averaging only eight offensive snaps in the first three weeks of 2020, he's up to an average of 21.25 per game over the last eight outings. For contrast, after averaging 73 snaps per game in the first three contests of 2020, Elliott is seeing his usage drop -- now averaging 50.25 over the last eight games -- with some of it being attributable to the fact the Cowboys are almost always playing from behind, with another key factor being Pollard seeing an uptick. This is evidence that despite what the Cowboys say, they're already sliding the scale this season toward Pollard, and not as a means of somehow diminishing or devaluing Elliott.
It's likely because while on one end they want to remain viable in the NFC East, or to at least try, there's at least some understanding of what they're risking by running Elliott behind the current iteration of their offensive line.
And for those outside of the organization who'd say, "He's being paid, so play him like it!", it's key to note how cringeworthy of a stare into the micro that is -- considering the macro is far more valuable because it could involve a rebirth of the league's No. 1 offense in 2021. And yes, you want (need, actually) Elliott along for that entire ride. The bottom line is the Cowboys know exactly what Elliott is capable of, but are still learning what Pollard's ceiling is and how he fits into the offense, thus having an infinitesimal-sized potential gain by continuing to push the latter into his near-usual bell-cow workload.
For that reason and for insurance against injury that could put an early dent in the team's 2021 plans for a clean slate (read: mulligan) under McCarthy, the Cowboys must consider sitting the bull and allowing the calf to get more feed in what will likely be the final five games of the 2020 season. As this ongoing horror movie nears its end, they can avoid added misery by writing the biggest remaining star player out of the script -- before it's too late and they wished they had.
