After a two-week break, the Chiefs look to resume their offensive onslaught when they host the Colts in Saturday's AFC Divisional Playoffs. It's a 4:35 p.m. ET kickoff from Arrowhead Stadium and the first game of the NFL Divisional schedule. Kansas City scored 30-plus points 12 times during the regular season, earning the AFC's top seed with a 12-4 record. Indianapolis (10-6) advanced by manhandling Houston, 21-7, in the Wild Card round last week. The Kansas City weather has been a hot topic on Saturday, with light snow now falling after the area was sacked with a winter storm warning. Late money has been coming in on the Colts, as Kansas City fell from -5.5 to -4.5 ahead of kickoff. The over-under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, has dropped from 56 to 54.5 in the latest Colts vs. Chiefs odds. Before you make any Colts vs. Chiefs picks and NFL Playoff predictions, you have to see what No. 1 NFL expert R.J. White picked.
The advanced computer model simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, and those who have followed it have seen massive returns. SportsLine's proprietary computer model went 176-80 last season and beat over 95 percent of CBS Office Pool players in 2016 and '17. It also performed better than 98 percent of experts tracked by NFLPickWatch.com during that span. Additionally, it went 48-34 on A-rated picks against the spread last season, and $100 bettors who followed it the past two seasons are up nearly $4,000.
The model has continued to nail its top-rated picks in 2018-19, entering the divisional round on a blistering 16-6 run. For the season, it is now 30-15 on all top-rated picks, extending its two-year run to a strong 78-49. It also went 170-84 on straight-up NFL picks during the regular season, ranking inside the top 10 on NFLPickWatch.com. Additionally, it hit all four NFL against-the-spread picks on Wild Card Weekend. Anyone who has followed it is way up.
Now the model has dialed in on Colts vs. Chiefs (stream live on fuboTV). We can tell you it's leaning over, but it has also generated a strong point-spread pick that's hitting well over 50 percent of the time. You can only see that one over at SportsLine.
The model has factored in that since the Chiefs lost running back Kareem Hunt, Damien Williams has filled in admirably. He is averaging 5.1 yards per carry and has scored six touchdowns in limited action. Fellow back Spencer Ware (hamstring) reportedly won't play on Saturday despite carrying a questionable tag, but Williams is more than capable of shouldering the load.
Regardless of who's in the backfield, quarterback Patrick Mahomes is the engine that drives Kansas City's offense. In just his second pro season, the MVP front-runner tossed a remarkable 50 touchdowns and nearly 5,100 yards, second-best in the league.
But just because Kansas City has plenty of weapons doesn't mean it will cover the Chiefs vs. Colts spread on Saturday.
The model knows the Colts won 10 of their last 11 games as their peerless offensive line protected quarterback Andrew Luck (NFL-low 18 sacks) and opened huge holes for running back Marlon Mack. The second-year player gashed the Texans for 148 yards and a touchdown on 24 carries last week and has scored six times in his last five games. Kansas City struggles mightily against the run, ranking 31st in yards per carry allowed (5.0), so Mack could be in for another huge game.
While the Colts have covered seven straight versus winning teams, the Chiefs have failed to cover their last six home playoff games. Kansas City is also just 4-4 against the spread as a home favorite this season and 1-3 versus teams like the Colts that allow fewer than 21 points per game (20.6).
Who wins Colts vs. Chiefs? And which side of the spread hits in well over 50 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Colts vs. Chiefs spread you need to be all over Saturday, all from the incredible computer model that has returned nearly $4,000 to $100 bettors.
