Chargers vs. Patriots odds, prediction, time, line, spread: 2024 NFL picks by proven model on 28-12 run

SportsLine's model simulated Saturday's Los Angeles Chargers vs. New England Patriots matchup 10,000 times and revealed its NFL best bets

By CBS Sports Staff

Dec 27, 2024 at 11:34 am ET • 4 min read

The Los Angeles Chargers will try to secure a playoff berth when they battle the New England Patriots in a key AFC matchup on Saturday. Los Angeles is coming off a 34-27 win over the Denver Broncos, while New England dropped a 24-21 decision at Buffalo last Sunday. The Chargers (9-6), who are second in the AFC West, are 4-3 on the road and 6-4 against AFC foes. The Patriots (3-12), fourth in the AFC East, have lost five in a row and are just 1-5 at home.

Kickoff from Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, Mass., is set for 1 p.m. ET. The Chargers are 4.5-point favorites in the latest Chargers vs. Patriots odds, while the over-under for total points scored is 42.5. Before making any Chargers vs. Patriots picks, be sure to see the NFL predictions and betting advice from SportsLine's proven computer model, as well as everything else that SportsLine has to help you crush your NFL picks.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters Week 17 of the 2024 NFL season on an incredible 28-12 betting hot streak on top-rated NFL picks this year - a stunning 70% success rate. Longer term, it is on a 208-140 roll on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season and a 62-33 roll on top-rated NFL picks since Week 7 of 2022.

The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past six years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94% of CBS Sports Football Pick'em players four times during that span. Anyone following at sportsbooks and on betting apps has seen strong returns.

In addition to the model picks for this game, you can get AI props, Vegas expert picks, DFS Optimizer lineups, and everything else you need to crush your Christmas Day bets. Go to SportsLine now to see it all.

Now, the model has set its sights on Chargers vs. Patriots and just locked in its NFL picks and NFL predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Here are several NFL odds and NFL betting lines for Patriots vs. Chargers:

Chargers vs. Patriots spread: Chargers -4.5
Chargers vs. Patriots over-under: 42.5 points
Chargers vs. Patriots money line: Chargers -233, Patriots +191
LAC: Chargers have hit the game total under in 13 of their last 20 games (+5.30 units)
NE: Patriots have hit the team total over in five of their last eight games at home (+1.85 units)
Chargers vs. Patriots picks: See picks at SportsLine
Chargers vs. Patriots streaming: FuboTV (Try for free)

Why the Chargers can cover

Quarterback Justin Herbert is coming off a solid performance in the win over the Broncos. In that game, he completed 23 of 31 passes for 284 yards and two touchdowns with one interception. He also rushed eight times for 28 yards. In 15 games this season, he has completed 278 of 430 passes for 3,243 yards and 18 touchdowns with three interceptions for a rating of 98.4. He has also carried 62 times for 252 yards (4.1 average) and two touchdowns.

His top target is rookie wide receiver Ladd McConkey. The second-round pick in this year's NFL Draft has a team-high 69 receptions for 960 yards and five touchdowns with 13 explosive plays of 20 yards or more, including a long of 60. He has 326 yards after the catch with 45 first-down conversions. See which side to pick here.

Why the Patriots can cover

Rookie quarterback Drake Maye powers New England's offense. In 11 games, he has completed 213 of 315 passes (67.6%) for 2,159 yards and 14 touchdowns with 10 interceptions and an 88.6 rating. He also has rushed 48 times for 389 yards (8.1 average) and two touchdowns. In the loss at Buffalo, he completed 22 of 36 passes (61.1%) for 261 yards and two touchdowns with one interception.

His favorite target has been veteran tight end Hunter Henry. He has a team-high 66 receptions for 674 yards (10.2 average) and two touchdowns. Henry has four explosive plays of 20 yards or more, including a long of 35, and has 268 yards after the catch and 40 first-down conversions. See which side to pick here.