Buccaneers vs. Cowboys player props, 2021 NFL Kickoff Game picks: Ezekiel Elliott over 53.5 rushing yards

SportsLine's model reveals the top NFL prop picks and NFL best bets for Cowboys vs. Buccaneers

By CBS Sports Staff

Sep 9, 2021 at 11:41 am ET • 3 min read

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are 8.5-point favorites over the Dallas Cowboys in the latest Week 1 NFL odds from Caesars Sportsbook. If you don't love that line or the 51.5-point over-under for the 2021 NFL Kickoff Game, there are plenty of Buccaneers vs. Cowboys prop bets. It's a game loaded with wide receiver talent, but which ones have totals you should target on Thursday? Amari Cooper (64.5), CeeDee Lamb (61.5), Michael Gallup (51.5), Mike Evans (57.5), Chris Godwin (59.5) and Antonio Brown (50.5) all have lines of 50 yards or higher in the Cowboys vs. Buccaneers props.

Meanwhile, tight ends Rob Gronkowski (32.5), O.J. Howard (19.5), Dalton Schultz (20.5) and Blake Jarwin (19.5) are all expected to be less involved, but could provide faster routes to cashing your NFL props. With so many potential NFL prop picks up in the air, having a little help to figure out which NFL prop lines to target could pay huge dividends. Before locking in any NFL prop bets for Thursday's 2021 NFL Kickoff Game, you need to see the Cowboys vs. Buccaneers prop predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up almost $7,900 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception five-plus years ago. It is a sizzling 24-14 on top-rated NFL picks this season, returning well over $800. The model also enters Wild Card Weekend on an incredible 120-78 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season.

The model ranked in the Top 10 on NFLPickWatch three of the past four years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94 percent of CBS Sports office pool players three times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

With Buccaneers and Cowboys squaring off in the 2021 NFL Kickoff Game, the model has evaluated the NFL player props from Caesars and found five strong bets. You can only see them here.

Top NFL player prop bets for Buccaneers vs. Cowboys

After simulating the 2021 NFL Kickoff Game 10,000 times and examining the dozens of player props, the model says Cowboys running back Ezekiel Elliott goes over 53.5 total rushing yards (-115). Playing behind an offensive line that was decimated by injuries a season ago, Elliott had his worst season as a pro. He rushed for just 979 yards and six touchdowns while averaging just 4.0 yards per carry and 6.5 yards per reception.

Elliott's offensive line is healthier entering 2021 and the return of quarterback Dak Prescott will make it harder for opposing defenses to key in on the three-time Pro Bowler. If the Cowboys can avoid letting the Buccaneers jump out to a big early lead, there's little reason to think that Elliott won't be in line for 15 to 20 carries, even against Tampa Bay's top-ranked run defense. The model likes Elliott to carry the ball 17 times on average for 66 yards, helping him breeze past his total.

The model also says Buccaneers wide receiver Chris Godwin goes over 59.5 total receiving yards (-115), predicting that he finishes with 70 on average. After breaking out with 86 catches for 1,333 yards and nine scores over just 14 games in 2019, Godwin missed four games a season ago and finished with 65 catches for 840 yards and seven scores in what had become an incredibly crowded offense.

Now he returns healthy, and while the offense still features a dizzying array of options, Godwin should still be a top target. Especially against a Cowboys defense that ranked 21st in the NFL in net yards allowed per pass attempt (6.7) and 27th in passing touchdowns allowed (34).