The New York Giants and Tampa Bay Buccaneers will put the finishing touches on Week 8 when these two NFC squads square up on Monday Night Football. Tom Brady has plenty of history against the Giants, but this is hardly the team that was able to snatch two Super Bowl rings out of his hands. This version of New York comes into this game with a 1-6 record that's good for last place in the NFC East. Meanwhile, Brady's new squad in the Buccaneers seem to be catching their stride heading into primetime. They've won five of their last six games and Brady is fresh off a five-touchdown performance against the Raiders in Week 7. With all that in mind, we're very much looking at a David vs. Goliath matchup to wrap up this week of the regular season.
Here, we'll be diving into all the different betting angles for this contest, including the spread, total, and a few player props that catch our eye. On top of that, we'll give you a breakdown of how the lines moved throughout the week and what that may mean for this showdown. All NFL odds via William Hill Sportsbook.
How to watch
Date: Monday, Nov. 2 | Time: 8:15 p.m. ET
Location: MetLife Stadium (East Rutherford, NJ)
TV: ESPN | Stream: fuboTV (try for free)
Follow: CBS Sports App
Buccaneers (-12.5) at Giants
There really isn't much faith in the Giants by the public. After opening at Tampa Bay -10.5, this total has flirted with nearly a two-touchdown spread. The spread took a significant jump on Friday, leaping to Tampa Bay -13. It hung at that total for a bit but has since come down to Tampa Bay -12.5 as of Monday morning.
The pick: Buccaneers -12.5. The Giants simply don't have the arsenal to contend with Tom Brady's offense and New York's offensive line is poised to have some serious trouble going toe-to-toe with the Buccaneers' front seven. On top of the clear talent discrepancy, the Giants don't have the best history at MetLife Stadium. This season, they are 0-3 ATS at home and are 3-15-1 ATS (17%) at home over the last three seasons, the worst mark in the NFL over that stretch. Brady, meanwhile, has covered 61% of the Monday Night Football games he's played in and owns a 15-5 ATS record as a double-digit favorite since 2016.
Over/Under 45.5
Unlike the spread, the total has dipped rather significantly as the week progressed. It opened at 48 on Wednesday and fell as far as 45 by Friday. It stayed at that number throughout the weekend but has since ticked up a half-point on Monday morning.
The pick: Over 45.5. Under Bruce Arians, the Over has a 16-7 record for the Buccaneers, which is the best mark in the entire NFL over that stretch. While Tampa Bay's defense is stout, Daniel Jones has shown the ability to put up points against them. Last season, he made his first career start against the Bucs and scored four touchdowns. Of course, it may be too much to ask him to do that again, but getting in the mid-teens certainly seems doable for Jones and the Giants offense. While looking at the other side with Tom Brady's high-flying offense, that should be enough to get over the hump here.
Player props
Tom Brady
O/U 23.5 completions
O/U 34.5 pass attempts
O/U 261.5 passing yards
O/U 1.5 passing TDs (Over -170)
O/U 0.5 interceptions (Over +130)
Tom Brady has hit this Over for passing touchdowns in two straight games coming into Week 8, including a four-touchdown performance last week. Against a New York secondary 27th in efficiency according to Football Outsiders, Brady should also go Over on his passing yards total, which is below his season average heading into this matchup. At +450, I wouldn't mind throwing something on Brady's chances of reaching the end zone. When Tampa Bay gets inside to their opponent's one-yard line, they've shown twice this season that they are not afraid to let Brady push is over.
Daniel Jones
O/U 20.5 completions
O/U 35.5 pass attempts
O/U 223.5 passing yards
O/U 1.5 passing TDs (Over +180)
O/U 0.5 interceptions (Under +150)
O/U 25.5 rushing yards
You have to go all the way back to Week 2 to find the last time that Daniel Jones hit the Over on his passing yards total for this game against the Bucs, who have the No. 1 ranked defense in DVOA. His pass attempts will likely hit Over because New York will is primed to be playing from behind, but I'm going Under on most other passing props. Considering he rushed for two touchdowns against this defense a year ago, he's another quarterback with tremendous value at +400 for anytime touchdown.
Other props to consider
Scotty Miller total receiving yards: Over 48.5 (-115). Chris Godwin will be sidelined for this game, opening up even more opportunity for Miller to get over this total with relative ease. He's hit this Over four times this season, including last week when he went over 100 yards receiving with a touchdown.
Tyler Johnson total receiving yards: Over 31.5 (-115). Johnson is another Bucs pass-catcher, who has shown the ability to pile up yards when given the opportunity. When Tampa Bay was limited at receiver in Week 5, Johnson got the start and hauled in four passes for 61 yards. He's also caught a touchdown in back-to-back games heading into this matchup, proving to Brady he's a trusted weapon when called upon.
Rob Gronkowski anytime touchdowns (+163). Rob Gronkowski seems to have unlocked something over the past two games, catching touchdowns in each of those contests. While going up against a poor Giants secondary, it'll be wise to place something on his chances of getting into the end zone to see if he can make it three in a row.
Sterling Shepard total receptions: Over 3.5 (-150). Shepard saw eight targets in his return from IR last week against Philly and, should that continue, he'll have no problem getting four or more receptions from Daniel Joes.
